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    Michael Butler

Jan 2021 Squallicane


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20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's to hope:


Love the animation and the thread name.   The snow under some of those bands look convective.....  wouldn't at all be surprised to see white-out conditions happen under some of those.  I remember a couple of these events growing up, where you'd go from sun or moon peeking through clouds to heavy snow and then back to sun or moon.  They covered a bare ground in just a couple of minutes.  Hope we see some of these convective cells, as portrayed.

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MRX Disco. 

Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
possible across the Mountains of far east Tennessee and southwest
Virginia, 1 to 2 inches for the Plateau, and generally less than 1
inch for the north and central Tennessee valley. The cold air with
the upper trough steepens the low-level lase rates with CAPEs of 100-
150 J/Kg.

Due to convective/shower nature, large differences in snow
accumulations within a short distance. Also, the snow will likely
come down hard at times due to the showery nature reducing

Cloud cover, shower activity, and cold air aloft will keep highs
Saturday on the cold-side with little daytime warming.

Another quick upper trough and cold air aloft will sweep across the
region Sunday night and Monday morning producing another round of
snow showers for southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee. Some light
snow accumulations possible.


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45 minutes ago, John1122 said:

HRRR looks decent for Western areas. Event still ongoing when this ends.



I wonder if it'll do any better with this one as far as this areas concerned.? For whatever the reason, it has underforecasted amounts for this area every single snowfall this Season, even right up to the event.

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Looks like most of it will be snow showery, with occasional squalls. Forecast in two waves mainly Friday night and Sunday night, with an in between lighter chance Saturday night.

The latter two may have timing shifts or even flip flop intensities. Such is modeling in fast cyclonic flow. Also any daytime hours over the weekend (when not in subsidence between waves) could pop snow showers.

Looks light for Nashville, kind of the west side of these snow showers - yet still in the zone. I have doubts about Chattanooga mainly due to downslope. Might be cold enough nights, but still fighting drying wind off the Plateau - not a good flow for snow making over into southeast Tenn.

Even when snow makes it up and over elsewhere - hello Knoxville. Also looks good MRX to TRI. Of course the Plateau will get magic! Could be productive in the Mountains too.

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GFS/NAM still look decent to good for this one at 06z. 3k doing its thing and throwing down 6 inches on Cross Mountain in my area. HRRR has some nice snowy streaks. Euro pretty stingy. 

First Northern stream event of winter, may be able to learn if its a model bias causing the GFS to be so aggressive here or the European to be so dry. 

OHX goes with a WWA and I honestly feel like JKL will expand theirs later today. Not sure if MRX will, leaning towards not likely other than the standard mtns/SWVA. 

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  • Mr Bob pinned this topic

Wish I had time to get to the Frozen Head lookout tower this AM. There are some nice convective clouds moving overhead here, but can't really get a good picture from my location. I looked out the window and my first thought was wow, thunderstorm type clouds. Their tops are not very high, but have that convective look. 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0624 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

   Valid 151300Z - 161200Z


   A few brief thunderstorms are possible over the central Ohio Valley
   to Cumberland Plateau this afternoon.

   ...Central OH Valley to Cumberland Plateau...
   A pocket of rather cold 500-mb temperatures near -34 C and zone of
   ascent evident by a mid-level cloud deck near Memphis should reach
   eastern TN/KY border area by late afternoon. Full insolation ahead
   of this feature will promote the development of very steep 0-3 km
   lapse rates. Still, surface temperatures are only expected to warm
   into the 40s with dew points mixing through the 20s resulting in
   scant MLCAPE at best. Isolated to scattered low-topped convection
   appears likely for a few hours this afternoon from this leading
   mid-level cold pocket to the primary mid-level cyclone drifting
   southeast across the Mid-MS Valley. Much of this activity will
   probably remain as showers, but sufficient signal does exist to
   warrant an area of thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent.
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