Hilton01

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  1. Just from radar looks light there might even be at least snow in the air on the valley floor(Knoxville) when it comes though?? Thoughts?
  2. and are now only a couple few short weeks from leaving the 1/10th of the total circle/pie (ummm pie) that constitutes our season of not summer. Just think, then we once again enter the never ending other season the Tn Valley experiences; Summer! Damnit man I gotta move before it’s too late.
  3. Wxtree, I hope you do not stop posting. I enjoy reading your posts comments thoughts etc.. Very often, your posts, and the reply’s that are given, help me to better understand things. So thank you for that. We all know it is so very easy to misinterpret meaning tone intent etc. in another’s written text in these type of forums/formats and I am sure, after reading the posts, that that is all this is. So let’s all stay here keep posting be friends and get along! For if we can not do that, how can we ever expect it to snow in the Tn valley again!
  4. Today’s was felt, and heard, easily here in West knox.
  5. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Valley area, specifically Knoxville, has decided to simplify things greatly, in fact by half! From now and forevermore *** Knoxville will recognize only 2 meteorological seasons; Summer!, and not summer. For those of you sick of not summer, worry not, for Summer! can and often does begin in as few as 4 short more weeks! Note: *** forevermore meaning until it becomes necessary, because of the weather, to reinstate additional meteorological seasons, if necessary as soon as next week, (or never).
  6. “it's probably time to completely re-evaluate winter in this part of the world and assume we now have the climate of Central Gulf coast states 20 years ago.” Well said! Could not agree with this more. Hard to deny the changes that are happening, we all see them in our region (and many other regions as well for that matter).especially in winter. Climate variability, GW, just subtle changes, or maybe just an “off” climate cycle of 30 or 40 years then a switch up, who knows. But, it can not be denied, at least in the relatively, extremely short period of Earth’s history/evolution/record keeping period we call 20-30 years or maybe longer, that our regions weather has changed and will continue to do so. Unfortunately for most of us that deprives us of one of our great joys of life! Oh well, it is only a matter of time and patience until we see real snow again. I think.
  7. I get it I get. I guess I see Met/atmospheres as one of the last unknowns to man. Always wondered if a scale type model might help in some way, maybe very limited, but maybe not. I don’t know, just not sure computers are ever going to model a earff that big, atmosphere that big, both rotating, both the affected by moon and sun and countless millions of variables happening every second millions of time and there both rotating a different speeds and directions at places, and it’s tilted and that butterf... never mind I’m gonna stop there my thumb hurts. We might get better by using what we have and making it better but it only ever going to better at what purpose it serves now. I’ve long though of a physical model. Would not be easy or perfect but who knows where met might going?
  8. Or here’s a thought and please anyone feel free to correct me if I am off the mark. I have only been reading here and weather in general for about 10 -15 years. I have only become to have a basic understanding of modeling and how they work and how they are interpreted (seems most off they are interpreted to not do what the model says but a met can still use his or her skill to interpret the way they choose, but anyway). But, at the same time, for years on and off, I have heard talk of how much better the models used to be, at least from 10 days in, maybe more then 10? I don’t recall hearing for certain. But without a doubt, I’ve heard for years that the models were much more reliable from 10 days in. So that brings me to the point. Is there another variable, maybe unknown but at least misunderstood, to our earff/atmosphere, that were don’t know if or understand yet? And if so, what was going on when the models (not sure exactly when, 1980-1990s??, I still here people talk about watching storms that varified for days before hand, 93 as ex. I believe? were acting as a better, more reliable tool to mets (and to all others on here as well)? Again, I know, I know! The flogging may now commence! Please understand, it is never my intention to upset or make light of anyone or anything weather related ( or anything human related for that matter) this is directed at no one, only questions I have and thoughts I think about. Thank you all and I would welcome thoughts and feedback, but preferably not the flogging.
  9. Just seems like year after year there are no long term lasting model improvements. That is, of course, unless we are getting better by learning to read and interpret faulty models/science (art/instinct) which I do realize is a huge part of successful meteorology however not do much a valid part of science. Again, no knocking intended, hope to be here when the person or team makes a break through. Or when we realize this is as good as we can do with such a random volotile dynamic variable unlimited system! Oh good old planet earff!
  10. Just seems like year after year there are no long term lasting model improvements. That is, of course, unless we are getting better by learning to read and interpret faulty models/science (art/instinct) which I do realize is a huge part of successful meteorology however not do much a valid part of science. Again, no knocking intended, hope to be here when the person or team makes a break through. Or when we realize this is as good as we can do with such a random volotile dynamic variable unlimited system! Oh good old planet earff!
  11. I’ve said this before and got considerable flak back but I still this we are a long way off from even much more then playing Plinko and/or educated guessing beyond ~10 days models output. I do feel that at some point a major breakthrough will occur that allows us to be “better” understand and begin to better predict/asses. I know I will get some backlash but this is directed at no one, just atmospheric understanding. I appreciate all of you here, read every word written and am greatful for all your willingness to share. all science starts at infancy, (with people) even in today’s tech world I still remember my meteorology classes I tool at UT (there were only 2 at the time but I made sure to take them) the one thing that the prof kept saying all year (he was U of Wis. trained) that really stood out was that the field of meteorology was in bad need of intellectual as well as technological breakthroughs. Not just better ways of doing what we’re doing( i.e model upgrades), but of rethinking and reevaluating what we are doing. So anyway I’ve opened my self up to another round of abuse, but please understand this is directed at no one at all, just human umdestanding or struggle to understand. Thanypu all here and I am serious when I say I read every word every one of you contributes. Hopefully no hard feelings.
  12. I remember it all very well, at times during that stretch there were ice-sickles close to 2 feet long hanging from house roofs.
  13. I also remember having to go to school during spring break to make up missed days that winter in Knox. Good times growing up, and then it's all been down hill snowwise (for the most part) from there on, expectations too high too young after that.