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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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the upper level charts for the Pus storm week look really good

No photo description available.

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@Ji seats are gonna fill up fast 

F8CCD4C4-3B8F-4BE7-B81C-FA932205118B.thumb.png.27e6d91edc7a2344efcea98e6645148c.png
that captures two waves technically because the eps members can’t decide between the 28/29 or the 30/31 wrt which wave will be the one to amplify.  

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji seats are gonna fill up fast 

F8CCD4C4-3B8F-4BE7-B81C-FA932205118B.thumb.png.27e6d91edc7a2344efcea98e6645148c.png
that captures two waves technically because the eps members can’t decide between the 28/29 or the 30/31 wrt which wave will be the one to amplify.  

Exceptionally good look considering 276 hours out.  All aboard ! 

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EPS mean gives me like 10” through the end of next week lol. I’ll take that.

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23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS mean gives me like 10” through the end of next week lol. I’ll take that.

of course you will. you will be lucky to get a dusting

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26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS mean gives me like 10” through the end of next week lol. I’ll take that.

Three waves each with successively more upside.  I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to.  But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31.  The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. 
1BF69501-37A3-4C1F-BF25-009EFE057CA9.thumb.png.219050050452742d00ace8c062e2e0df.png
3021E5F5-83C5-48B6-A507-5ADA3EF4EFC3.thumb.png.3f90d2f448be3697e3092b0fd31d08f7.png

@Ji We cannot waste this.  This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often.  I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work!
 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Three waves each with successively more upside.  I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification.  But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31.  The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. 
1BF69501-37A3-4C1F-BF25-009EFE057CA9.thumb.png.219050050452742d00ace8c062e2e0df.png
3021E5F5-83C5-48B6-A507-5ADA3EF4EFC3.thumb.png.3f90d2f448be3697e3092b0fd31d08f7.png

@Ji We cannot waste this.  This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often.  I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work!
 

cant have a storm on the 31st...have a guitar gig 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Three waves each with successively more upside.  I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to.  But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31.  The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic

SWEET !

IF this doesn't produce a SECS I am going off the grid.  

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36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS mean gives me like 10” through the end of next week lol. I’ll take that.

If you get that then my prediction is gonna look very “geniusy”

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

SWEET !

IF this doesn't produce a SECS I am going off the grid.  

This has to lol.  If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good?  That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. 
 

ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck. 

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48 minutes ago, Ji said:

cant have a storm on the 31st...have a guitar gig 

Dude if you complain about that so help me!!!! Lol

*In mobster voice* "That's a real nice guitar...it would be a shame if somethin' happened to it..."

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EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 7 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude if you complain about that so help me!!!! Lol

*In mobster voice* "That's a real nice guitar...it would be a shame if somethin' happened to it..."

Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? :lol:

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5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? :lol:

Nah, he’ll get to his gig only to find out that the frets have been removed. As always .....

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12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? :lol:

Not quite my style...

4 minutes ago, rclab said:

Nah, he’ll get to his gig only to find out that the frets have been removed. As always .....

But THIS is!!! :lol: Musical mayhem would be my specialty! That would really give him something to fret about *ba-dum pssh*

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58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This has to lol.  If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good?  That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. 
 

ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck. 

It seems like you are saying this pattern cannot get much better. Like what is the upside? I would assume a  Jan 16' type storm is possible in this pattern if it really is the best possible pattern we can get that would only come once a decade.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, GFS has the next storm, but looks to slide south

Trend is our friend?gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180_trend.thumb.gif.e61e868e233c53a1f6028dad5fa0b680.gif

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Trend is our friend?gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180_trend.thumb.gif.e61e868e233c53a1f6028dad5fa0b680.gif
When it comes to snow we have no friends

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Exceptionally good look considering 276 hours out.  All aboard ! 

Maybe 12 days out will do better than 10

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30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, GFS has the next storm, but looks to slide south

GFS can't even get a handle on Mon-Tues. Im not sure I put much stock in what it shows 180hrs+ out. However if you loop the last 3 runs valid 6z Thurs Jan 28 you can see it keeps moving N with the slp and precip shield. Soooo yeah.

Eta: crap didn't see the other post showing the same.....

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