Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,784
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SimplySmoothWX
    Newest Member
    SimplySmoothWX
    Joined

2020-2021 LES Thread


josh_4184
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If KBUF moved 5 miles SE of its location, the yearly average would go up 10-20". Pretty crazy 

if I recall one of the reasons why NWS chose the location it did 9 miles SW of Gaylord was due to its elevation. They were able to get the Radar beam in a higher location compared to the city, due to the elevation differences nearby, especially were I am its almost a plateau it would certainly have negative effects on the radar beam performance.  Kind of a similar issue that NWS Marquette deals with due to the Huron MTNs and they beam not able to pick up the low level LES in the Keweenaw area very well.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

if I recall one of the reasons why NWS chose the location it did 9 miles SW of Gaylord was due to its elevation. They were able to get the Radar beam in a higher location compared to the city, due to the elevation differences nearby, especially were I am its almost a plateau it would certainly have negative effects on the radar beam performance.  Kind of a similar issue that NWS Marquette deals with due to the Huron MTNs and they beam not able to pick up the low level LES in the Keweenaw area very well.

That makes sense. KBUF is right next to the Buffalo Airport. The Buffalo national weather service official building is like 1/4 mile away where they measure, so it makes sense for them to be the spot for measuring. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, mimillman said:

How we doing up there Bo? Just booked my snowmobile trip March 5-7 in Munising. Better make it snow!

We actually just canceled our mid February snowmobile backpack across the UP trip yesterday. You would think there would be “ok” snow up there by then but with the way this season has gone so far who knows what it will be like next month up there. Plus with the restaurant and bars being closed till February 1st now there’s no guarantee they will be open by then also unfortunately. Just to many risks for our group to commit to doing it this year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, slow poke said:

We actually just canceled our mid February snowmobile backpack across the UP trip yesterday. You would think there would be “ok” snow up there by then but with the way this season has gone so far who knows what it will be like next month up there. Plus with the restaurant and bars being closed till February 1st now there’s no guarantee they will be open by then also unfortunately. Just to many risks for our group to commit to doing it this year. 

Yea, part of the reason why I pushed it back to start of March. Was looking at end Feb but I'd like to give February a chance to perform for the UP and lay something down. Everything is cancellable so we'll wait and see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, mimillman said:

How we doing up there Bo? Just booked my snowmobile trip March 5-7 in Munising. Better make it snow!

 I had planned to take my annual trip North in mid February but I may push it back to late February. Not sure yet I am going to monitor the weather but the snow depths up North right now are unreal. I cannot recall such low depths up there, I am sure it's happened before but not in my recollection. A friend went snowmobiling in Grand Marais last week and looked like there was maybe 4-5" snowpack which means tons of dirt on the trails.  That should be one of the snowiest areas of the upper peninsula and they should have several feet on the ground by now. Supposedly paradise only has a few inches which blows my mind. Pattern definitely looks to be changing but it will be interesting to see how much and how fast they can catch up.

 

 I was in Munising a few years ago when they had near 50" depths. The current snow depth there right now is 5".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, slow poke said:

We actually just canceled our mid February snowmobile backpack across the UP trip yesterday. You would think there would be “ok” snow up there by then but with the way this season has gone so far who knows what it will be like next month up there. Plus with the restaurant and bars being closed till February 1st now there’s no guarantee they will be open by then also unfortunately. Just to many risks for our group to commit to doing it this year. 

This winter so far is reminding me of 97-98 when we had a very strong El Nino. When we did get a snow we didn't get much. It seems they keep forecasting a robust lake effect snow and then it is a bust.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/14/2021 at 8:55 PM, michsnowfreak said:

 I had planned to take my annual trip North in mid February but I may push it back to late February. Not sure yet I am going to monitor the weather but the snow depths up North right now are unreal. I cannot recall such low depths up there, I am sure it's happened before but not in my recollection. A friend went snowmobiling in Grand Marais last week and looked like there was maybe 4-5" snowpack which means tons of dirt on the trails.  That should be one of the snowiest areas of the upper peninsula and they should have several feet on the ground by now. Supposedly paradise only has a few inches which blows my mind. Pattern definitely looks to be changing but it will be interesting to see how much and how fast they can catch up.

 

 I was in Munising a few years ago when they had near 50" depths. The current snow depth there right now is 5".

Yeah. It's pretty horrible. Where I live we have maybe 15-20 inches of snow...but you go downhill in any direction and that quickly drops to under 10 inches.

Hopefully this coming week gets things turning around

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Yeah. It's pretty horrible. Where I live we have maybe 15-20 inches of snow...but you go downhill in any direction and that quickly drops to under 10 inches.

Hopefully this coming week gets things turning around

 

I was actually considering Houghton or calumet this year but considering its a farther drive I want to see how much snow there will be. Kind of want to save that for a good or even average snow year. we are still talking a month away and with a pattern change imminent. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look's like one of if not the best LES setup of the year albeit in Mi Jan lol.

 

APX calling for 1-2" per hour, somewhere around my area will see a 12"+ easy.

Quote
Forecast/Details.

The primary concern of the short term will be ongoing accumulating
lake effect snow, potentially heavy at times, continuing through
Wednesday morning. The heaviest banding is currently expected to be
Tuesday night. Forecast soundings display a very favorable
environment to support accumulating snowfall across NW lower and
eastern upper Michigan. Saturated profiles look to extend upward of
10kft with much of this layer collocated within the DGZ. Delta-Ts in
excess of 15 degrees will support ample over lake instability,
leading to efficient lake effect snow production. Better band
organization may materialize after sunset, aiding the potential for
higher accumulations over more concentrated areas. Snowfall rates of
1-2" per hour cannot be ruled out in the strongest lake effect
bands, which would result in rapid drops in visibility and hazardous
travel on snow-covered roadways. Some inverted-V profiles near the
surface and non-uniformity in wind direction in the saturated layer
may hinder overall organization/accumulation some. However, this may
be a case of when dominant bands get going, they are there to stay.
Several additional inches of snow are possible across NW lower and
eastern upper by Wednesday morning with locally high amounts,
especially within areas impacted by the heaviest banding. Some 24HR
reports of 10"+ of snow by Wednesday morning would not be
surprising should a few dominant bands develop.

Lake effect snow chances will gradually wane through Wednesday as
winds begin to turn more S/SW as the aforementioned clipper system
approaches the region. Additional snow chances return to the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the front end of the
system, but substantial accumulations with this aren`t expected and
should remain confined to the norther half of the area. Lake effect
chances will return on the backside of the system Thursday as it
departs to the NE, but will be discussed in more depth in the long
term discussion.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Look's like one of if not the best LES setup of the year albeit in Mi Jan lol.

 

APX calling for 1-2" per hour, somewhere around my area will see a 12"+ easy.

 

 To your knowledge what area of lower Michigan has the deepest snowpack right now? is it the traditional belts near Gaylord? Trying to figure out where to go a month from now. A lot can change obviously but some of the snow depths unbelievably low.  If the upper peninsula stays so low on snow I may just go somewhere in northern lower.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

 To your knowledge what area of lower Michigan has the deepest snowpack right now? is it the traditional belts near Gaylord? Trying to figure out where to go a month from now. A lot can change obviously but some of the snow depths unbelievably low.  If the upper peninsula stays so low on snow I may just go somewhere in northern lower.

Cadillac as of this moment, will probably change after this week to somewhere around my area. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Cadillac as of this moment, will probably change after this week to somewhere around my area. 

Just north of West Branch to Just north of Houghton Lake had the deepest snow we saw when we drove home yesterday. We picked up a few fresh inches Friday night at Higgins Lake but just south of us got more. We now have about 10” on the ground at our place but just south of us to the south west has a few inches more then that right now. Snow wise around our place it’s been pretty decent considering areas not to far north and south of us have had quite a bit less. We have friends in Lakes of the north and they had to ride side x sides this weekend because of the lack of snow up there, we were fortunate enough to have another decent weekend of snowmobiling at our place. My gripe is the lack of cold air again this winter. Our lake still isn’t safe enough to ride out on completely, I ran out of ice Saturday morning while riding on it and had to turn around and head back to shore. We need cold air, simple as that and it will snow in the snow belts of Michigan. We’ve actually had a pretty good snowpack up there for over a month now considering how warm it’s been, there’s lots of moisture in it.  Looking like a few fresh inches of fluff this week that should only help build up the snow pack more. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Just north of West Branch to Just north of Houghton Lake had the deepest snow we saw when we drove home yesterday. We picked up a few fresh inches Friday night at Higgins Lake but just south of us got more. We now have about 10” on the ground at our place but just south of us to the south west has a few inches more then that right now. Snow wise around our place it’s been pretty decent considering areas not to far north and south of us have had quite a bit less. We have friends in Lakes of the north and they had to ride side x sides this weekend because of the lack of snow up there, we were fortunate enough to have another decent weekend of snowmobiling at our place. My gripe is the lack of cold air again this winter. Our lake still isn’t safe enough to ride out on completely, I ran out of ice Saturday morning while riding on it and had to turn around and head back to shore. We need cold air, simple as that and it will snow in the snow belts of Michigan. We’ve actually had a pretty good snowpack up there for over a month now considering how warm it’s been, there’s lots of moisture in it.  Looking like a few fresh inches of fluff this week that should only help build up the snow pack more. 

 

Yea you area has been a better track for synoptic snow its mainly missed our area. Plus no LES equals bad snow depth, my house is about 2 miles from LON same here obviously. We do have about 7" OTG but trails are shot. This LES shot incoming should help a little along with the snow later in the week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...