MPotter_WX Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Definitely liking the NAM trends. Cannot complain after the last couple of seasons. The combination of mixed precip and/or dry air cutting off steady precipitation is going to create a HUGE gradient across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That high to the north is critical. Even though the shortwave was more amped this run, the isobars from the high sagged to the south more which led to a colder solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k NAM, almost all but done at this point. Of note, the 3k NAM kuchera map has a 45" spot in south central PA lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 After reading this thread today all I can think about is:Heading up to the cabin tomorrow after lunch. Should be some good obs from 2100ft on the edge of the mountain. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM absolutely blisters the Lehigh Valley lol. TBH, these insane totals are exactly that: insane. Especially considering this is a 12ish hour storm. Getting 2+" of QPF to drop in that time will be a heck of a task Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Newman said: RGEM absolutely blisters the Lehigh Valley lol. TBH, these insane totals are exactly that: insane. Especially considering this is a 12ish hour storm. Getting 2+" of QPF to drop in that time will be a heck of a task I think a little more than that. Start 12-3pm Wed to 7-10am Thurs? Not sure though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I wonder if Mt Holly is considering hiking blizzard warnings for the LV tomorrow evening? The criteria will sure be there and the fact that the LV has consistently hit between 16- 24"+ snowfall predictions, having gust at or around 35 mph, snow ratios above 15:1, possible whiteout conditions for at least 4-6 hours during the heavy snow banding and being in or next to the jackpot zone on every model run for the past 48+ hours, I think it is warranted this time. I hope out all of this , I see enough convective instability to produce thundersnow. To me, that is way better than shoveling more than 12 inches of snow and helps make the storm memorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM nukes the Lehigh Valley into oblivion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Heavy snow band looks heavy for multiple runs in north east pa... going to monitor it..if the 3ft signal is still there afternoon.. may weenie out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I think a little more than that. Start 12-3pm Wed to 7-10am Thurs? Not sure though? Models have this coming in around 2-5pm Wednesday and leaving by 4-7am Thursday. That's as of now, we'll see how things keep trending 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: RGEM nukes the Lehigh Valley into oblivion Don’t know what day! chasing to the snow if this band is legit!! Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS...jogged E a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: GFS...jogged E a bit? It’s total unsupported crap. CMC is well north 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: GFS...jogged E a bit? It sure does jackpot our area. Could be the best run yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s total unsupported crap. CMC is well north 00z agreed if gfs is right major coup..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: agreed if gfs is right major coup..... According to the map in the NYC forum, the CMC still gives the city 9” and me 12+”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Kuchera is junk should be banned from being posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Kuchera is junk should be banned from being posted Seriously....how many inches above record snowfall does it spit out every storm? Then again it’s kinda like letting me down easy, something I can cling to even though I know it’s an illusion Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smitty97 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: RGEM nukes the Lehigh Valley into oblivion Im right under the 33.1 on that, on the mountain. We got 2" today while downtown ~500ft below almost got nothing. Will elevation play any role in wed-thurs storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Smitty97 said: Im right under the 33.1 on that, on the mountain. We got 2" today while downtown ~500ft below almost got nothing. Will elevation play any role in wed-thurs storm? 7 miles away in Steinsburg we be sitting pretty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Why did it take all my 52 years to get a storm like this in December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Why did it take all my 52 years to get a storm like this in December Being 51, my sleeping pattern has gone to complete shit the past several days waiting up for the Euro. If I end up w/only a 1-2" I may have to sit down and have a talk w/myself and evaluate life choices... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow_ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 hours ago, anthonyweather said: What’s up fellas. Another year another NAM’D. this map reminds me of the nam about 4 yrs ago, that 32 inch storm we got. The nam was only model on board and i showed guys at work on fri nite, they looked at me like i was on drugs since tv was telling everyone 6-12. Next thing you know sunday wake up to 32 inches in lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 DTs first call before the Euro, keep me in 6-10" and that's fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 DT has bought the coast hugging trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 0z ECM is to put it bluntly - problematic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: 0z ECM is to put it bluntly - problematic Map doesn't look all that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Mixing a little worse I95, the dead spot for qpf in SEPA is pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Map doesn't look all that bad? Sorry 11" would be a debacle, 52 more years I ain't got. My bar is set at 16" with a range of 14-18" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, RedSky said: Mixing a little worse I95, the dead spot for qpf in SEPA is pronounced. True...not horrible but it sucks the qpf out of Bucks/Mont counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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