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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

what exactly is the difference in each member? do they value certain things more or something? i assume they take in the same data, would make no sense otherwise

Every ensemble system is different, but in general it is just tweaks to initial conditions. You're not going to find scenarios where member 36 is going to score a coup because it handles shortwaves running into strong highs better or something. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Every ensemble system is different, but in general it is just tweaks to initial conditions. You're not going to find scenarios where member 36 is going to score a coup because it handles shortwaves running into strong highs better or something. 

Ah I think I understand? Because we don't actually have a perfect image of the data, we create mutliple plausible assumptions? And the OP uses some iteration of that? I guess physics equations are pretty much of a constant lol

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3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Ah I think I understand? Because we don't actually have a perfect image of the data, we create mutliple plausible assumptions? And the OP uses some iteration of that? I guess physics equations are pretty much of a constant lol

The deterministic Euro is essentially just another ensemble member. The ECMWF (entity not the model) has chosen to vary both initial conditions to be close to the best guess starting state of the atmosphere, and the actual model itself to be close to but not perfectly match the control run. Their goal is to capture both uncertainty in the initial state of the atmosphere but also uncertainty in the model. 

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