ice1972 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If only this was inside 24hr. 4 days to go instead. LFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Could see totals even higher than what’s showing up on the EURO weenie map if that happened. But many more solutions to go before we can lock this in. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: LFG LFG. One time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: LFG. One time. Ya.....we got it one time in Feb 2013....epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Wow eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Wow both the EPS and euro have an incredible look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 EPS is great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 LFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Come on guys...somebody put up a map pkease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS is great! Silly question. What is the difference of the EPS and the Euro again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Ya.....we got it one time in Feb 2013....epic I just say ‘one time’ like I’m at the poker tables and my QQ is up against AK all in pre flop late in a tournament. Clearly I’ve won races before but it’s just a little good luck saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Silly question. What is the difference of the EPS and the Euro again. Ensembles and operational model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ensembles and operational model Just checked. Thanks man. They look awesome btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Silly question. What is the difference of the EPS and the Euro again. EPS are the 51 member euro ensembles. They tend to outscore the others at least in part to the sheer number of perturbations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: EPS are the 51 member euro ensembles. They tend to outscore the others at least in part to the sheer number of perturbations. A buddy of mine just posted them on FB. They look awesome. A lot of big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Large swath of 12+ on the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Big difference between gefs and eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 what exactly is the difference in each member? do they value certain things more or something? i assume they take in the same data, would make no sense otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Big difference between gefs and eps So..who's to be trusted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS has schooled the Euro in recent times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, greenmtnwx said: GFS has schooled the Euro in recent times Data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: what exactly is the difference in each member? do they value certain things more or something? i assume they take in the same data, would make no sense otherwise Every ensemble system is different, but in general it is just tweaks to initial conditions. You're not going to find scenarios where member 36 is going to score a coup because it handles shortwaves running into strong highs better or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, greenmtnwx said: GFS has schooled the Euro in recent times It's been a toss up between the two I would say. When you think about it and how the GFS has fluctuated back and forth with each run, then compared with the Euro..they have pretty good similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: Every ensemble system is different, but in general it is just tweaks to initial conditions. You're not going to find scenarios where member 36 is going to score a coup because it handles shortwaves running into strong highs better or something. Ah I think I understand? Because we don't actually have a perfect image of the data, we create mutliple plausible assumptions? And the OP uses some iteration of that? I guess physics equations are pretty much of a constant lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 For what it’s worth the Latest Para GFS is extremely different from the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Oh boy.....CT.....LFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, LaGrangewx said: For what it’s worth the Latest Para GFS is extremely different from the operational. A paste bomb for the coast and winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Ah I think I understand? Because we don't actually have a perfect image of the data, we create mutliple plausible assumptions? And the OP uses some iteration of that? I guess physics equations are pretty much of a constant lol The deterministic Euro is essentially just another ensemble member. The ECMWF (entity not the model) has chosen to vary both initial conditions to be close to the best guess starting state of the atmosphere, and the actual model itself to be close to but not perfectly match the control run. Their goal is to capture both uncertainty in the initial state of the atmosphere but also uncertainty in the model. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: GFS has schooled the Euro in recent times When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Data? Euro isn't the same model like it use to be. It is too wound up happy at times. It has changed so much. The tweak ruined the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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