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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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7 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I received a text from one of my CTP met friends that made the Feb 5-6 2010 comparison last eve.   I ended up with 27” from that one. Hard to believe this is real.   

Haha well that's good to hear, I almost wanted to retroactively give myself a weenie tag on that post I made early this morning. There is definitely differences between this prospective event and that one and the excessive swath is not going to be placed the same (likely NW of the big cities) and probably not as widespread. I was commenting mainly on the u wind (easterly fetch) component. Big time u wind anomalies are a hallmark of a big Mid-Atl/NE snow event. 

 

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41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Usually confluence is over modeled and slowly backs off closer to the event.

Sometimes...certainly not the case in the winter of 2009-10 though. Ask NYC about confluence that winter. The storm on 2/5/2010 dropped over 2' in central Jersey and never made it to the metro area. It hit a brick wall and just stopped. They're still waiting for that storm to arrive. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sometimes...certainly not the case in the winter of 2009-10 though. Ask NYC about confluence that winter. The storm on 2/5/2010 dropped over 2' in central Jersey and never made it to the metro area. It hit a brick wall and just stopped. They're still waiting for that storm to arrive. 

Yes, but Still trended north at end.   So did the dec 2009 storm.   That’s what this storm reminds me of.   

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Sometimes...certainly not the case in the winter of 2009-10 though. Ask NYC about confluence that winter. The storm on 2/5/2010 dropped over 2' in central Jersey and never made it to the metro area. It hit a brick wall and just stopped. They're still waiting for that storm to arrive. 

That was one of the most wicked cutoffs I’ve ever seen.

Literally 2 feet to no snow in 25 miles.


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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yes, but Still trended north at end.   So did the dec 2009 storm.   That’s what this storm reminds me of.   

Fair enough. I don't remember the 2/5 storm trending north. I vividly remember the storm in December coming north though - 48 hours out we were looking at 4" at most. 

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6 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Mag, the only December storm I can think of even remotely comparable, and only in the state college & Somerset area is the Dec 11, 1992 Noreaster. State College had around 18" and Somerset 27" . Somehow IPT only recorded 7.5" on a little over an 1" of qpf, state college was over 2" qpf and South. Mountain had 15" on close to 5" of qpf.

Regardless, if MDT somehow walked away with 24" of snow, they would break the all time record for snow for the entire month of December and I believe almost double the previous December storm record. That kind of anomaly is hard to even fathom.

I remember us waiting for MDT to officially call the jan 2016 storm the GOAT that morning during the tail end of that storm. Imagine beating the December storm record just as the Deform band started.

Over the last 20 year's we have been spoiled for sure with big storms, especially in Jan to March peak winter. These amounts are insane for peak winter. Below are the max daily snow amounts and year for MDT by month, then mean amount and (ratio).

Dec. 10.1" 1963. 5.8" (1.74)
Jan. 26.4" 2016. 9.2" (2.86)
Feb. 24" 1983. 9.6" (2.5)
March 20.3" 1993. 6.1" (3.33)

One of these is not like the others. If this storms dumps between 14..5" and 19.5" during one calendar day at MDT then that changes. It should also highlight just how rare an event this has the potential to be.

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk
 

Yup, that December 92 nor'easter pretty much started that portion of the mid-90s where the central counties were the place to be for these big coastals (Dec '92, Mar '93, Mar '94, Jan '96).

With December 11-12. 1992, the crazy part about UNV's 18" was the fact that precip turned to rain in the middle part of the storm there (LSV had some decent snow but a lot of rain), while SW of there in AOO and into the Laurels stayed all snow and there was a 36" total in Somerset County. We definitely will have a better airmass in place for this one, however the 500mb feature was much more pronounced on Dec '92 (closed 500mb low). 

There's a whole bunch of youtube videos of TWC during that storm that I found last winter. Jeff Morrow reporting in Breezewood getting blasted with snow. These videos def helped last winter lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-ueyO15a2o&t=31s

 

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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Fair enough. I don't remember the 2/5 storm trending north. I vividly remember the storm in December coming north though - 48 hours out we were looking at 4" at most. 

2/5 definitely did, I still remember the CTP disco at about this range saying something like "maybe 3 or 4 inches for the counties along the turnpike. 

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Yup, that December 92 nor'easter pretty much started that portion of the mid-90s where the central counties were the place to be for these big coastals (Dec '92, Mar '93, Mar '94, Jan '96).
With December 11-12. 1992, the crazy part about UNV's 18" was the fact that precip turned to rain in the middle part of the storm there (LSV had some decent snow but a lot of rain), while SW of there in AOO and into the Laurels stayed all snow and there was a 36" total in Somerset County. We definitely will have a better airmass in place for this one, however the 500mb feature was much more pronounced on Dec '92 (closed 500mb low). 
There's a whole bunch of youtube videos of TWC during that storm that I found last winter. Jeff Morrow reporting in Breezewood getting blasted with snow. These videos def helped last winter lol.

 
I don't know what happened around Shippensburg and South Mountain that storm but they both had close to 5" apt while Harrisburg area had 2"-3"qpf

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk

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19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

2/5 definitely did, I still remember the CTP disco at about this range saying something like "maybe 3 or 4 inches for the counties along the turnpike. 

February of 03 President’s Day storm was another north trender for CTP. I think they were calling for 6 to 10 but then Harrisburg ended up around 20 inches total. 

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