rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z NAM looks south. early frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Buffalo added a winter storm watch to Allegany county. Guess any other counties will be under WWA that will be posted later tonight (if at all) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z IBM GRAFF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just noticed this wording (in bold and underlined) from the KBUF discussion that came out this morning. They are holding strong to this being a virtual non event. Will be interested to see this afternoon discussion. I can't believe they would explicitly say they have high confidence for such a fluid event. Good ol KBUF .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Our forecast area will be on the northern and western fringes of a passing Nor`easter Wednesday night. As is typically the case...our region should not anticipate more than a nuisance snowfall...maybe a light shovelable snowfall for portions of the Finger Lakes and Wrn Southern Tier. 18 hour (late Wednesday through Wednesday night) forecast snow totals range from little to nothing in Jefferson county and a general inch or so along the Buf-Syr stretch of the NYS Thruway to roughly five inches in southern Allegany county. High confidence in these numbers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM actually looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Nam seems to hold. Not much change that i see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Watches upgraded...seems pretty reasonable with the totals. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 NYZ055>057-062-PAZ038>040-162000- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0007.201216T2000Z-201217T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KBGM.WS.W.0005.201216T1800Z-201217T1500Z/ Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne- Including the cities of Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, and Equinunk 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 16 inches. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne counties. In New York, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour possible late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and isolated power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Just noticed this wording (in bold and underlined) from the KBUF discussion that came out this morning. They are holding strong to this being a virtual non event. Will be interested to see this afternoon discussion. I can't believe they would explicitly say they have high confidence for such a fluid event. Good ol KBUF .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Our forecast area will be on the northern and western fringes of a passing Nor`easter Wednesday night. As is typically the case...our region should not anticipate more than a nuisance snowfall...maybe a light shovelable snowfall for portions of the Finger Lakes and Wrn Southern Tier. 18 hour (late Wednesday through Wednesday night) forecast snow totals range from little to nothing in Jefferson county and a general inch or so along the Buf-Syr stretch of the NYS Thruway to roughly five inches in southern Allegany county. High confidence in these numbers. The 301 update is different but they discussed nothing in regards to accumulation...they seem flummoxed from their “high confidence “ forecast from merely 12 hours ago...ever since Tom Niziol left that place has gone down... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: 12z IBM GRAFF. I take 6” at Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I take 6” at Buffalo How accurate is this IBM model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, vortmax said: How accurate is this IBM model? From the looks of those ridiculous numbers I'd say its got a few lines of Kuchera code tucked in there somewhere. Divide by 2 IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Something to watch. Nam starting to indicate lake effect lake enhanced for roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18z NAM definitely SE w/snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: 18z NAM definitely SE w/snow totals. Post please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Going to be a close call between not much and something decent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not what we hoped for but not terrible. LP is pretty much the same. Just more suppression from HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: From the looks of those ridiculous numbers I'd say its got a few lines of Kuchera code tucked in there somewhere. Divide by 2 IMO You don’t think 27” makes sense in Binghamton??? Or the close to 4 foot amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: You don’t think 27” makes sense in Binghamton??? No, maybe 18 on the high end. Especially with lower ratios down that way. I see you added something and now I don't know if you were being sarcastic or not. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: No, maybe 18 on the high end. Especially with lower ratios down that way. Lol, I know. I edited to add in the close to 4’ spots on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Flying MXZ said: Lol, I know. I edited to add in the close to 4’ spots on the map. The numbers actually look really good almost everywhere if you divide everything by 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: No, maybe 18 on the high end. Especially with lower ratios down that way. I see you added something and now I don't know if you were being sarcastic or not. lol Sorry, definitely sarcastic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z 3k NAM: 18z 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15z SREFs are certainly higher than 9z like someone said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: 15z SREFs are certainly higher than 9z like someone said. 10” for kroc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 As someone else already said, the 12z could’ve been the high water mark. I’m kinda with Delta’s thinking. At least it’s giving us something to track! The ICON is south with the heavy stuff.. LP track similar so still some hope here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yup, rgem wobbled back south a bit.(wrt precipitation)..See what 0z has in store.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yup, rgem wobbled back south a bit.(wrt precipitation)..See what 0z has in store.. The local met at the same station that said 2-5 earlier a different met now says 1-3...I think they ride the models worse than we do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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