donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will become partly to mostly sunny. It will be mild. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 40s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 45° A strong storm will impact the region Thursday into Friday. Moderate to heavy rain, high winds, and unseasonably mild readings ahead of the frontal passage early Friday can be expected later Thursday and Thursday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Another El Niño-like feature that we are experiencing this month is the mild average temperature combined with the 10”+ snow in NYC . Since 1995 , all the 35.9° or warmer Decembers with 10”+ were warmer ENSO years. The snowy La Niña Decembers all had a monthly average around 32° degrees. This month is already 39.1° before the big coming solstice warm up. An interesting question to ask is how long can we keep this Niño-like pattern going? I looks like January will at least start out more Niño-like. So it will be interesting to see which ENSO type pattern shows up in February. Warmest Decembers highlighted...NYC snowfall....average temperature....Niño 3.4 temperature.... Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Temp/ Niño 3.4 1 2010 20.1 32.8/-1.6 2 2003 19.8 37.6/+0.4 3 2000 13.4 31.1/-0.7 4 2009 12.4 35.9/+1.6 5 1995 11.5 32.4/-1.0 6 2002 11.0 36.0/+1.1 7 2020 10.5 39.1/-1.2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another El Niño-like feature that we are experiencing this month is the mild temperatures combined with the 10”+ snow in NYC . Since 1995 , all the 35.9° or warmer Decembers with 10”+ were warmer ENSO years. The snowy La Niña Decembers all had a monthly average around 32° degrees. This month is already 39.1° before the big coming solstice warm up. An interesting question to ask is how long can we keep this Niño-like pattern going? I looks like January will at least start out more Niño-like. So it will be interesting to see which ENSO type pattern shows up in February. Warmest Decembers highlighted...NYC snowfall....average temperature....Niño 3.4 temperature.... Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Temp/ Niño 3.4 1 2010 20.1 32.8/-1.6 2 2003 19.8 37.6/+0.4 3 2000 13.4 31.1/-0.7 4 2009 12.4 35.9/+1.6 5 1995 11.5 32.4/-1.0 6 2002 11.0 36.0/+1.1 7 2020 10.5 39.1/-1.2 this is part of our new climate so it's not surprising Chris.....milder winters with more snowfall (and more rainfall) has become the norm now. Also it wouldn't be a shock for the pattern to break down as we approach February, patterns usually last from 4-8 weeks before they break, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it returned again later, a la 1995-96. Even in 2010-11 we actually returned to a somewhat snowy pattern again in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another El Niño-like feature that we are experiencing this month is the mild average temperature combined with the 10”+ snow in NYC . Since 1995 , all the 35.9° or warmer Decembers with 10”+ were warmer ENSO years. The snowy La Niña Decembers all had a monthly average around 32° degrees. This month is already 39.1° before the big coming solstice warm up. An interesting question to ask is how long can we keep this Niño-like pattern going? I looks like January will at least start out more Niño-like. So it will be interesting to see which ENSO type pattern shows up in February. Warmest Decembers highlighted...NYC snowfall....average temperature....Niño 3.4 temperature.... Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Temp/ Niño 3.4 1 2010 20.1 32.8/-1.6 2 2003 19.8 37.6/+0.4 3 2000 13.4 31.1/-0.7 4 2009 12.4 35.9/+1.6 5 1995 11.5 32.4/-1.0 6 2002 11.0 36.0/+1.1 7 2020 10.5 39.1/-1.2 @bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all: 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another El Niño-like feature that we are experiencing this month is the mild average temperature combined with the 10”+ snow in NYC . Since 1995 , all the 35.9° or warmer Decembers with 10”+ were warmer ENSO years. The snowy La Niña Decembers all had a monthly average around 32° degrees. This month is already 39.1° before the big coming solstice warm up. An interesting question to ask is how long can we keep this Niño-like pattern going? I looks like January will at least start out more Niño-like. So it will be interesting to see which ENSO type pattern shows up in February. Warmest Decembers highlighted...NYC snowfall....average temperature....Niño 3.4 temperature.... Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Temp/ Niño 3.4 1 2010 20.1 32.8/-1.6 2 2003 19.8 37.6/+0.4 3 2000 13.4 31.1/-0.7 4 2009 12.4 35.9/+1.6 5 1995 11.5 32.4/-1.0 6 2002 11.0 36.0/+1.1 7 2020 10.5 39.1/-1.2 Chris, what's your opinion of the New Year's Day possible storm? I see that as still being a bit too soon for a big wintry storm here, maybe more of a mix to rain scenario. The "big one" (if it does occur) should be in early January, perhaps in the Jan 5-10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all: We have seen these strong trade wind surges and Niño 3.4 dipping temperatures back to the fall. All the competing influences have resulted in a more Niño-like pattern. Notice how the PNA is forecast to stay positive right into January. Beyond early January, it will be interesting to see which type ENSO pattern prevails. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 42 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all: I continue to believe that proclamations that the La Niña is near its demise are premature. The trade winds have been strong for some time now (the SOI was even +30 or above for three consecutive days for the first time since January 2012), and are forecast to strengthen further. One already saw a fairly sharp cooling in Region 1+2 over the past week. Through February, I believe a gradual fade is more likely than a collapse. Overall, the DJF tri-monthly period will likely have an ENSO anomaly consistent with La Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If the Nino state is maintained that would have vast repercussions on all those Feb torch forecasts. As of now it looks like the blockiness will carry on. We've seen months of blockiness in the spring/summer months...I wonder if it'll maintain through winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I continue to believe that proclamations that the La Niña is near its demise are premature. The trade winds have been strong for some time now (the SOI was even +30 or above for three consecutive days for the first time since January 2012), and are forecast to strengthen further. One already saw a fairly sharp cooling in Region 1+2 over the past week. Through February, I believe a gradual fade is more likely than a collapse. Overall, the DJF tri-monthly period will likely have an ENSO anomaly consistent with La Niña. Many people including meteorologists think La Nina is about to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Loving these 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have seen these strong trade wind surges and Niño 3.4 dipping temperatures back to the fall. All the competing influences have resulted in a more Niño-like pattern. Notice how the PNA is forecast to stay positive right into January. Beyond early January, it will be interesting to see which type ENSO pattern prevails. right and these competing patterns end up being more important than ENSO itself. I'd also be curious to see the impact of the background warming state, as the Pacific warms, we may see more of these so-called "nino type" patterns in other ENSO conditions also. That's why it's a misnomer to consider them "ENSO type" patterns when other influences are obviously more important, especially the background warming state and the predilection of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Loving these best indicators for this time of the year since 1995-96 and 2010-11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I continue to believe that proclamations that the La Niña is near its demise are premature. The trade winds have been strong for some time now (the SOI was even +30 or above for three consecutive days for the first time since January 2012), and are forecast to strengthen further. One already saw a fairly sharp cooling in Region 1+2 over the past week. Through February, I believe a gradual fade is more likely than a collapse. Overall, the DJF tri-monthly period will likely have an ENSO anomaly consistent with La Niña. keeping it more in the weak to low end moderate range would be far better for our wintry prospects, as some epic snowfall seasons have had that combo. and as you yourself said, Don, AO/NAO impacts our winters far more than anything else does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: right and these competing patterns end up being more important than ENSO itself. I'd also be curious to see the impact of the background warming state, as the Pacific warms, we may see more of these so-called "nino type" patterns in other ENSO conditions also. That's why it's a misnomer to consider them "ENSO type" patterns when other influences are obviously more important, especially the background warming state and the predilection of blocking. We started to see these ENSO disconnects when the 15-16 super El Niño California rainfall got delayed into the 16-17 La Niña. Then it was off to the races when the El Niño didn’t couple in 18-19. Last winter we saw weak El Niño conditions produce an 11-12 style La Niña pattern. So it’s no surprise we are getting an El Niño-like pattern with a moderate La Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: We started to see these ENSO disconnects when the 15-16 super El Niño California rainfall got delayed into the 16-17 La Niña. Then it was off to the races when the El Niño didn’t couple in 18-19. Last winter we saw weak El Niño conditions produce an 11-12 style La Niña pattern. So it’s no surprise we are getting an El Niño-like pattern with a moderate La Niña. where does the warming state of the planet fit into this.....parts of the north pac have been scorching all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Many people including meteorologists think La Nina is about to die. Yes, there are differences of opinion. My belief is that the La Niña is more likely to fade than collapse. The most recent ENSO anomalies and the trade wind forecast suggest that this line of thinking of a slower decay has merit. Ultimately, we'll see how things turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes, there are differences of opinion. My belief is that the La Niña is more likely to fade than collapse. The most recent ENSO anomalies and the trade wind forecast suggest that this line of thinking of a slower decay has merit. Ultimately, we'll see how things turn out. chances of this becoming a "strong" la nina though have greatly diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: chances of this becoming a "strong" la nina though have greatly diminished. I agree. I believe it will be classified as a moderate event when all is said and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all: Niña is dead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: where does the warming state of the planet fit into this.....parts of the north pac have been scorching all season. The warming state of the planet has been the ultimate competing influence. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 that should be GOA though not GOM. There's a guy in that thread named Jim Hughes, why does that name sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 also this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: this is part of our new climate so it's not surprising Chris.....milder winters with more snowfall (and more rainfall) has become the norm now. Also it wouldn't be a shock for the pattern to break down as we approach February, patterns usually last from 4-8 weeks before they break, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it returned again later, a la 1995-96. Even in 2010-11 we actually returned to a somewhat snowy pattern again in March. Agreed. If you get within a degree of normal, you have to consider that a cool departure 20 years ago. The whole baseline has been reset even if we are still waiting on new averages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 these are the years with at least one day having a -5sd AO...since 1950... 1959-60.....11/18...11/19... 1962-63.....01/21... 1965-66.....01/28... 1968-69.....02/13...02/15... 1969-70.....03/04...03/05...03/06...03/07...03/08...03/09...03/10... 1976-77.....12/28...12/29...01/11...01/12..01/13...01/14...01/15...01/16...01/17 1977-78.....02/05...02/06... 1984-85.....01/18...01/19...01/20... 2002-03.....10/18... 2009-10.....12/20...12/21...12/22...12/23...12/24...12/25...01/03...01/04...01/05...01/06...02/06...02/14... 2010-11.....12/18... 2012-13.....03/19...03/20...03/21...03/22... ..................................................................... dates..................-AO 1...01/15/1977.....-7.433... 2...01/16/1977.....-7.331... 3...01/14/1977.....-7.311... 4...01/13/1977.....-6.520... 5...03/05/1970.....-6.365... 6...01/19/1985.....-6.226... 7...01/17/1977.....-6.168... 8...03/06/1970.....-6.114... 9...03/04/1970.....-5.918... 10 11/18/1959.....-5.896... 11 12/21/2009.....-5.821... 12 01/12/1977.....-5.802... 13 01/18/1985.....-5.693... 14 03/20/2013.....-5.688... 15 01/20/1985.....-5.581... 16 12/23/2009.....-5.577... 17 11/19/1959.....-5.545... 18 01/03/2010.....-5.533... 19 03/07/1970.....-5.525... 20 03/09/1970.....-5.519... 21 12/22/2009.....-5.508... 22 01/04/2010.....-5.403... 23 03/21/2013.....-5.399... 24 01/02/2010.....-5.384... 25 12/20/2009.....-5.341... 26 01/11/1977.....-5.333... 27 03/08/1970.....-5.320... 28 02/05/1978.....-5.291... 29 12/29/1976.....-5.287... 30 02/13/1969.....-5.282... 31 12/18/2010.....-5.265... 32 12/24/2009.....-5.256... 33 03/22/2013.....-5.240... 34 12/28/1976.....-5.206... 35 02/06/2010.....-5.205... 36 03/19/2013.....-5.193... 37 01/05/2010.....-5.180... 38 02/14/2010.....-5.132... 39 01/28/1966.....-5.130... 40 03/10/1970.....-5.115... 41 02/15/1969.....-5.102... 42 10/18/2002.....-5.098... 43 12/25/2009.....-5.052... 44 02/06/1978.....-5.026... 45 01/21/1963.....-5.010... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, uncle W said: these are the years with at least one day having a -5sd AO...since 1950... 1959-60.....11/18...11/19... 1962-63.....01/21... 1965-66.....01/28... 1968-69.....02/13...02/15... 1969-70.....03/04...03/05...03/06...03/07...03/08...03/09...03/10... 1976-77.....12/28...12/29...11/11...11/12...11/13...11/14...11/15...11/16...11/17 1977-78.....02/05...02/06... 1984-85.....01/18...01/19...01/20... 2002-03.....10/18... 2009-10.....12/20...12/21...12/22...12/23...12/24...12/25...01/03...01/04...01/05...01/06...02/06...02/14... 2010-11.....12/18... 2012-13.....03/19...03/20...03/21...03/22... Would be happy to keep company like this. The race for -5SD is on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 1:23 AM, LibertyBell said: I have a strong feeling that you believe the coast will have to wait for January for the pattern to benefit us. The block starts out too far south next week on the latest EPS. So the EPS doesn’t leave room for a cold 50/50 low pattern. It looks like milder temperatures this run in the 6-10 day period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Niña is dead I completely disagree. This is the strongest trade wind surge we have seen since October. Nino 3.4 is going to drop. Also as Don already pointed out, this is the lowest SOI we’ve had since 2012. Region 3.4 SSTs are solidly in moderate territory. Oceanic and atmospheric indicators certainly show a healthy Niña, not a dead one. It’s also showing that this is very likely to be a slow fade in late winter, not a sudden shift into Neutral/La Nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1973-74 is a good analog for this winter so far...that year had the ice storm on 12/16-17...snow and ice on Jan 3rd-4th and 9th-10th...Big thaw the last week in January...Feb starts with frequent light sleet and snow...a surprise 6" snowfall on the 8th...snow on 2/25 is heavy south of the city...surprise snowstorm on 3/29...parting shot on April 10th...snowfall is way ahead of that year so far...10.5" to 2.8"...all we need is the same totals 73-74 had the rest of the way to get to 30" for the season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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