Tropical Storm Eta

[BombsAway1288]

21 hours ago, Prospero said:

Models are beginning to tighten up. Exciting, yet not great news for Florida. Models have been better this year than any year I remember.

My position for our home and Tampa Bay area is always, "Be as strong as possible without power going out, loss of life, and unreasonable cleanup expense."

Huh? Sorry, but that is not right, unless you're referring to the short range hurricane models, the rest of the models have been atrocious this year in the medium-long range, at least earlier in the season.

There was multiple occasions when both the GFS and Euro had hurricane's or TD's just dissipating as they reached the coast. Been an awful year for the globals.

[cptcatz]

Convection is blowing up this morning but it may be offset from the center. Recon should be in the storm soon so it'll be interesting to see what they find. 

[jbenedet]

Biggest risk for South Florida and the Keys  is if the forecasted stall/meander occurs more closely to south Florida than is currently projected by NHC. A stall near the keys, or just off shore south Florida would greatly increase chance of very significant flooding. GFS has been hinting at this risk for several runs now.

Tangent point but track uncertainty likely very high with this at short lead times given interaction with Cuba (and its high peaks), and then weak steering flow upon closest approach to Florida. 

 

[Windspeed]

Starting to get some mid-level core alignment under nice convection. Perhaps even an LLC reformation has occurred. Might have downplayed potential impacts in Cuba too swiftly.

[Bhs1975]

Starting to get some mid-level core alignment under nice convection. Perhaps even an LLC reformation has occurred. Might have downplayed potential impacts in Cuba too swiftly.

Yeah the ssts are still very warm.

[cptcatz]

Recon finding a stronger storm than we thought...

[Windspeed]

Definite improvement this morning.

[Windspeed]

Upper level reconnaissance mission did find pretty significant westerly mid level shear. Not unexpected. It should be enough to prevent rapid intensification from occurring in Eta. But with strong divergence aloft, there could be enough atmospheric support to allow continued slow strengthening through Cuban landfall.

[hawkeye_wx]

Pressure is 994 mb.

[Windspeed]

Eta still has a sheared assymetric presentation on radar.

[cptcatz]

Anyone know when the next recon is scheduled?

[TPAwx]

[cptcatz]

So the 18z GFS is coming in... brings Eta into the Gulf, intensifies, stalls, then moves south, eventually making landfall in where else but...... the Yucatan.

[hawkeye_wx]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know when the next recon is scheduled?

A plane is flying into the storm now.

[hawkeye_wx]

Pressure is down to 991 mb.

[Prospero]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

So the 18z GFS is coming in... brings Eta into the Gulf, intensifies, stalls, then moves south, eventually making landfall in where else but...... the Yucatan.

Storm roulette!

"Spin the wheel, where she stops, nobody knows!"

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Storm roulette!

"Spin the wheel, where she stops, nobody knows!"

 

 

For real

[Prospero]

Entire season that started early, obsessed with every storm (as usual), and having taken some steps to prepare for storms I cannot now remember in 2020, we are looking at rain and winds to maybe start tomorrow. Prepared? Hardly. I am deep in a huge tight deadline project where I am learning a new programming language as I go. Perfect. UGH

In the past 18 years in Florida I remember hurricane's Charlie, Frances, Jeane, Hermine, and of course the doozy Irma.

Tropical storms too many to count, but Debbie brought the highest storm surge and over 16 inches of rain that was a disaster in itself.

Eta spinning off our coast for a couple days can outdo Debbie, and if it does become a hurricane most of us around here are totally not prepared.

Wish I was not so busy making a living this week!

[turtlehurricane]

It was Shabbos, so I was not able to see any of the updates until now.

The day started with underwhelming weather. NWS said flooding should've began last night, but instead when I awoke it was just cloudy with intermittent wind gusts. Then in the late morning we had 1 passing heavy downpour, and then another heavy downpour around 1 PM.

I was beginning to question if anything was really gonna happen, since so many times this season storms have missed here. 

However, around 4 PM it began to pour, and the rain didn't stop for hours. The winds were some of the strongest we've seen this year as well, easily gusting over 40 MPH.

Once I turned the computer on I see we are under a Tropical Storm Warning, with tropical storm conditions possible even tonight in rainbands, and indeed earlier we already has some Tropical Storm-esque conditions. 

It seems this is a huge storm, and it's already begun, so tons of flooding and wind is coming. Most interesting wild card is it will be over the Florida Straits for about 24 hours, and it's already approaching hurricane strength, so we could easily see some RI especially since a ridge will be building in, which is a highly favorable setup. 

NHC has appropriately issued a Hurricane Watch, since this could surprise everyone and go up to Cat 2-3. 

[Windspeed]

Sheared? Yes. Still, not looking too shabby for a TS at the moment. Impressive bursts of lightning over the past hour. Eta is trying to find itself a hurricane again.

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

It was Shabbos, so I was not able to see any of the updates until now.

The day started with underwhelming weather. NWS said flooding should've began last night, but instead when I awoke it was just cloudy with intermittent wind gusts. Then in the late morning we had 1 passing heavy downpour, and then another heavy downpour around 1 PM.

I was beginning to question if anything was really gonna happen, since so many times this season storms have missed here. 

However, around 4 PM it began to pour, and the rain didn't stop for hours. The winds were some of the strongest we've seen this year as well, easily gusting over 40 MPH.

Once I turned the computer on I see we are under a Tropical Storm Warning, with tropical storm conditions possible even tonight in rainbands, and indeed earlier we already has some Tropical Storm-esque conditions. 

It seems this is a huge storm, and it's already begun, so tons of flooding and wind is coming. Most interesting wild card is it will be over the Florida Straits for about 24 hours, and it's already approaching hurricane strength, so we could easily see some RI especially since a ridge will be building in, which is a highly favorable setup. 

NHC has appropriately issued a Hurricane Watch, since this could surprise everyone and go up to Cat 2-3. 

I'm already looking at the SailFlow maps. Been breezy here all day in Gulfport, Florida. If this develops at all in the Gulf we might be hanging onto our hats, and scrambling to secure our homes.

One thing with this pass of Eta, we have good radar, hundreds of personal weather stations, and a ton of live web cams.

[Prospero]

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.2 West. Eta has
recently jogged toward the east, but is expected to resume a motion
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) tonight.  A turn toward
the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on
Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba
tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass
near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and
Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday
night, and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches
Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.

OK, here we go.

[turtlehurricane]

Just went outside and it is ominous. Lots of wind, and Mesowest showing wind gusts exceeding 30 mph here on the coastline. 

Radar shows a strong rainband is moving in. It's already flooded out there, the street I live on is literally a river at this point, since the grounds were saturated from lots of rain this past month, and we had alot of rain earlier today.

The flooding threat here in Southeast Florida is extreme. NHC forecasting 10-15 inches, which would be totally insane on top of the already saturated grounds. 

Meanwhile Eta looking impressive as it approaches landfall in Cuba. There is a tremendous amount of upper level divergence that is fueling Eta. It's concerning what could happen once this gets over the Gulf Stream considering the upper level support. May not be a classic looking hurricane, but could end up with a 100 mph sub-tropical 'perfect storm'. 

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Just went outside and it is ominous. Lots of wind, and Mesowest showing wind gusts exceeding 30 mph here on the coastline. 

Radar shows a strong rainband is moving in. It's already flooded out there, the street I live on is literally a river at this point, since the grounds were saturated from lots of rain this past month, and we had alot of rain earlier today.

The flooding threat here in Southeast Florida is extreme. NHC forecasting 10-15 inches, which would be totally insane on top of the already saturated grounds. 

Meanwhile Eta looking impressive as it approaches landfall in Cuba. There is a tremendous amount of upper level divergence that is fueling Eta. It's concerning what could happen once this gets over the Gulf Stream considering the upper level support. May not be a classic looking hurricane, but could end up with a 100 mph sub-tropical 'perfect storm'. 

We are planning a shopping list for Thanksgiving and adding in late season hurricane supplies, like D batteries and filling up the gas tanks.
Wind chimes, bird feeders, potted plants, yard decorations are being secured early tomorrow. Hope I am not out in the rain doing it!

[turtlehurricane]

This rainband we just had easily had tropical storm conditions, torrential rain and lots of wind. 

In-fact, it is confirmed. KFLL gusted to 48 mph and a site on the coast gusted to 49 mph. 

Crazy were already getting tropical storm conditions, and it's gonna be deteriorating all the way through Monday morning.

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

This rainband we just had easily had tropical storm conditions, torrential rain and lots of wind. 

In-fact, it is confirmed. KFLL gusted to 48 mph and a site on the coast gusted to 49 mph. 

Crazy were already getting tropical storm conditions, and it's gonna be deteriorating all the way through Monday morning.

I was just outside enjoying a beer and a gust came up that almost knocked over one of our porch umbrellas that has over 100 lb of blocks on its base. That has not happened since we put it up in July with all of our strong afternoon thunderstorms that we get. And we are all the way up in the Tampa Bay area.

The umbrella is now down, tied up, and put away for the next week or so. Doing more tonight that I planned on for the morning already. We have a yard of projectiles and objects that are not TS wind friendly. (My wife who was in Andrew nags at me about what "could" happen if we get a strong storm. They were not able to get out of their destroyed second floor condo due to landscaping gravel that had been picked up and piled up in front their door overnight.)

 

[Prospero]

Strange, when Eta was aiming at the Mosquito Coast, there was some high-end met discussions going on here. Now that Eta is aiming at Florida, it's pretty slow. Granted I know, big news day, but Eta is big for us in the United States dangling peninsula.

 

[Buddy1987]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Sheared? Yes. Still, not looking too shabby for a TS at the moment. Impressive bursts of lightning over the past hour. Eta is trying to find itself a hurricane again.

This has my attention this go around, as my parents literally just relocated from Charleston SC to Naples within the past 3 weeks. Curious to get everyone’s thoughts as to what, if any disruption Cuba does to this thing before it re-emerges back into the Atlantic/Gulf. Me thinks we’re in for a surprise (just gut feeling) nothing scientific or meteorologically speaking. 

[FloridaTracker]

ETA is heading to an area of lower terrain in Cuba, trying to thread the needle.

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, FloridaTracker said:

ETA is heading to an area of lower terrain in Cuba, trying to thread the needle.

Of course, this is Eta. The storm that has surprised us all so late in the season.

Will it miss us in Tampa Bay, then hit Cat 3 and hit LA again? That would be par for the season.