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Spotty 3+" rainfall NJ/LI Midnight Thu AM-9AM Fri 9/10-11/20


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Have attached relatively high 6 hour FFG, plus the first week of Sept departure from normal rainfall, and the ~Aug 30 NAEFS 52 member D8-14 pattern that suggested near or above normal rainfall along the east coast for week two of Sept, that was posted on p2 of the Sept thread... with a cooler pattern nations midsection abutting a warmer than normal western Atlc temperature pattern.

Now we're in the shorter term and modeling consensus has increased the front end of the probable two part R+ episodes -Thursday- and Sunday-Monday(13-14).  

00z/9 model guidance is suggesting widespread showery conditions Thursday in the NYC forum, with some thunder. PWAT may rise to 2.3". Have seen a little ensemble guidance suggesting max rainfall of 5-7" in eastern NJ and possibly near NYC. 

There is enough wind that one or 2 clusters of thunderstorms might produce a wet microburst of severe weather in NJ or even LI on Thursday.  

My expectation is that everyone in the NYC forum receives a minimum of 1/4" and then in NJ/LI there should be several reports of 3+" with isolated 5" possible.  Some of the showers may creep into the southern part of the NYC forum late this afternoon or evening but the main show is Thursday-Thursday night. There could be a couple of leftover showers leftover after daybreak Friday on LI.

Normal rainfall in our area for a week period in September seems to be around 1-1.1" though our climate specialists may have other differing information.

In any case, have not added Sunday-Monday to this topic...  that too could be pretty heavy, though 00z/9 modeling has a slightly less extensive band of 2" PWAT over our area and a couple of models have most of the convection to our east.  Would like to see the GGEM operational on board for Sunday. 726A/9

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Jut added last nights 00z/9 SPC HREF 24 hour Max rainfall graphic ending 8PM Thursday. Legend decodes the 8 member ensemble attempt at prediction.With a PWAT of 2.3"...these numbers are possible, if thunderstorms occur.  Something to monitor tomorrow.

Also, added the probability of 2" or more of qpf per the 00z/9 NAEFS by 8PM Monday...showing a50+% chance of 2+" on LI (back up from a few days ago).  

mPING may be helpful tomorrow. 931A/9

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Some of new 12z/9 guidance is in:  This may be a fairly serious brief and small areas of short fuse FF for parts of NJ/NYC area, Thursday, keeping in mind previous FFG.  12z/9 SPC HREF 24 hr MAX rainfall potential. It's increased somewhat in NJ. I see 7" flagged here for 2 successive cycles in ne NJ. We'll see what happens. ICON/GGEM are pretty decent as well. 226P/9

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  • Rjay pinned this topic

It looks like some big numbers are coming to the I95 corridor (pockets of 3+ inches--iso 6-7"?). Digital Storm Totals from DIX and OKX are too low this Wednesday evening in s NJ. Already 1/2-1.2" amounts in parts of southern Ocean County(see attached weather underground). Look at the radar loop and you can see if that intensity comes overhead, torrential rain will occur. Long ways to go.  HEAVIEST rainfall may come in two bands---one at sunrise NJ-LI, and then 3P-10P for ne NJ-CT/LI and extreme se NYS with good frontogenesis probably yielding some 1.5"+ amounts in 1 hour.  952P/9

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Good Thursday morning all,

 

Radar continues to underestimate rainfall amounts. .06 here in Wantage and OKX/DIX radar did not detect any accumulation here. 

Added two maps of midnight-630A rainfall. one from nw NJ where you can see some of the cities. The other with a 3.06" centered on Oceanside NY (w LI).

 

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19 minutes ago, lee59 said:

That should actually be southeast Nassau County. Wantagh is the town directly to my south. I am now up to 2.60 inches and still raining.

I am in SW Suffolk and Wantagh is the nearest station to my west. They are currently up to 4.52”. This is the heaviest rainfall event in such a short time there since 9-10-15.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I am in SW Suffolk and Wantagh is the nearest station to my west. They are currently up to 4.52”. This is the heaviest rainfall event in such a short time there since September 2015. 

Yea I just realized what you were saying and deleted my post. I am now up to 3 inches. Wantagh is just to my south and had even heavier rain than I did. I rained 1 inch per hour for the past 2 hours. Now it is easing up some.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am in SW Suffolk and Wantagh is the nearest station to my west. They are currently up to 4.52”. This is the heaviest rainfall event in such a short time there since 9-10-15.

models have another heavy round tonight, some places could get 6-7 inches depending on timing/placement

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6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea I just realized what you were saying and deleted my post. I am now up to 3 inches. Wantagh is just to my south and had even heavier rain than I did. I rained 1 inch per hour for the past 2 hours. Now it is easing up some.

I am getting a break now here also. The back lawn was completely flooded with several inches of water. It has finally gone down. News12 is reporting that LB has delayed the start of school for several hours due to road flooding.

https://twitter.com/News12LI?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Long Beach schools call for 2-hour delay due to street flooding

 
Posted: Sep 10, 2020 8:00 AM EDTUpdated: Sep 10, 2020 8:11 AM EDT

This morning's rain has caused some flooding in Long Beach, where the school district has called at least a two-hour delay due to impassable roads. 

The district says it will be reassessing the situation at 8:30 a.m. to see if the roads have cleared and will give an update. 

In video taken in Long Beach, roads are seen completely under water. 

Anyone heading out this morning is asked to try to avoid any flooded roadways, because it can be hard to tell just how deep the water really is.

Meanwhile, in Seaford, St. William The Abbot School has canceled classes for grades 4,7, and 8 due to extensive flooding. 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

I am getting a break now here also. The back lawn was completely flooded with several inches of water. It has finally gone down. News12 is reporting that LB has delayed the start of school for several hours due to road flooding.

https://twitter.com/News12LI?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Long Beach schools call for 2-hour delay due to street flooding

 
Posted: Sep 10, 2020 8:00 AM EDTUpdated: Sep 10, 2020 8:11 AM EDT

This morning's rain has caused some flooding in Long Beach, where the school district has called at least a two-hour delay due to impassable roads. 

The district says it will be reassessing the situation at 8:30 a.m. to see if the roads have cleared and will give an update. 

In video taken in Long Beach, roads are seen completely under water. 

Anyone heading out this morning is asked to try to avoid any flooded roadways, because it can be hard to tell just how deep the water really is.

Meanwhile, in Seaford, St. William The Abbot School has canceled classes for grades 4,7, and 8 due to extensive flooding. 

 

Yep 2hr delay. Pics look pretty bad especially the east end of town with stranded cars. Looks like the rain got heavier going into Lido and Pt Lookout. 

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