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Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins


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My wife's brother happens to live in the foothills west of Denver in Golden, close to 6000 feet.  I'll be able to find out how much snow he gets when I talk to him early Wednesday.  I've been pouring over the news articles that the NWS (Denver) has on their site right now.  It's fascinating to see the records list for the greatest 1-, 2-, and 3-day temperature changes on record for Denver since the start of records in 1872.  Since the records run from midnight to midnight they won't be able to make it into the 1-day.  They'll come up a few degrees short on the 2-day since the current forecast change looks like about 62 degrees if they hit 94 tomorrow and drop to 32 on Tuesday morning (or before midnight Tuesday evening).

I was reading that Denver's high temp yesterday of 101 degrees was the latest 100+ degree reading on record.  Near-record cold is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with temps around freezing both days.

What I can't get over is how many extreme records have been broken around the country this year.  I wonder if September 8th could be the earliest recorded snowfall for Denver?  Since I didn't see them mention that I guess they've had snowfall earlier.  Accumulating snow in summer.  Wow!

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12 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

My wife's brother happens to live in the foothills west of Denver in Golden, close to 6000 feet.  I'll be able to find out how much snow he gets when I talk to him early Wednesday.  I've been pouring over the news articles that the NWS (Denver) has on their site right now.  It's fascinating to see the records list for the greatest 1-, 2-, and 3-day temperature changes on record for Denver since the start of records in 1872.  Since the records run from midnight to midnight they won't be able to make it into the 1-day.  They'll come up a few degrees short on the 2-day since the current forecast change looks like about 62 degrees if they hit 94 tomorrow and drop to 32 on Tuesday morning (or before midnight Tuesday evening).

I was reading that Denver's high temp yesterday of 101 degrees was the latest 100+ degree reading on record.  Near-record cold is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with temps around freezing both days.

What I can't get over is how many extreme records have been broken around the country this year.  I wonder if September 8th could be the earliest recorded snowfall for Denver?  Since I didn't see them mention that I guess they've had snowfall earlier.  Accumulating snow in summer.  Wow!

According to the Googles it snowed on September 3rd,  1961 for the earliest snow in Denver history.  I think pretty much all the NWS and recording keeping folks use the end of August for the end of Summer.  

 

 

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Anyone want to take a road trip to Denver today?

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON MDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches
  by early Wednesday.

* WHERE...The Front Range Urban Corridor.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Accumulating snow will impact area
  vegetation causing damage to trees and possible power outages.
  Roads could be slippery and slushy for the Tuesday evening and
  Wednesday morning commutes. Overnight low temperatures Tuesday
  night will drop into the 20s.
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Here is a good reminder from the New England Winter preview thread.

ORH_wxman   

ORH_wxman
   19 hours ago,  weathafella said: 

Didn’t euro seasonal have a good winter forecast for last winter at this time last year?

Not just now but it was rocking us in the October and November forecasts. It busted spectacularly. LR models aren’t very accurate...even the best ones.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is a good reminder from the New England Winter preview thread.

ORH_wxman   

ORH_wxman
   19 hours ago,  weathafella said: 

Didn’t euro seasonal have a good winter forecast for last winter at this time last year?

Not just now but it was rocking us in the October and November forecasts. It busted spectacularly. LR models aren’t very accurate...even the best ones.

This was the point of my discussion a few weeks ago concerning LR and MR threads.  Climate models, and LR sensible weather models are so often wrong to the point of using them for anything serious makes a forecast more inaccurate.  One could probably do better using the George Costanza method and picking the opposite of what they say.  It almost seems like flipping a coin has better odds. 

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18 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

My wife's brother happens to live in the foothills west of Denver in Golden, close to 6000 feet.  I'll be able to find out how much snow he gets when I talk to him early Wednesday.  I've been pouring over the news articles that the NWS (Denver) has on their site right now.  It's fascinating to see the records list for the greatest 1-, 2-, and 3-day temperature changes on record for Denver since the start of records in 1872.  Since the records run from midnight to midnight they won't be able to make it into the 1-day.  They'll come up a few degrees short on the 2-day since the current forecast change looks like about 62 degrees if they hit 94 tomorrow and drop to 32 on Tuesday morning (or before midnight Tuesday evening).

I was reading that Denver's high temp yesterday of 101 degrees was the latest 100+ degree reading on record.  Near-record cold is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with temps around freezing both days.

What I can't get over is how many extreme records have been broken around the country this year.  I wonder if September 8th could be the earliest recorded snowfall for Denver?  Since I didn't see them mention that I guess they've had snowfall earlier.  Accumulating snow in summer.  Wow!

Yea I'm not sure what would be crazier on it's own there, the late 100+ heat or seeing the snow. Obviously the combination of the two things within a day is insane and historic, especially in terms of temp differentials and departures. But honestly the heat wave part of this is likely the more extreme thing. It's relatively normal for the Rockies to start seeing higher elevation snows in September and Denver in fact averages 1.3" in September. It would appear that the only snow record Denver would break looking at what's being forecast there is possibly the heaviest first snowfall of the season. The earliest is 4.2" Sept 3, 1961. 

Quote

The month averages about 1.3″ inches with snow occurring once about every 5 years. There have been some very large snow storms in September but they have all occurred much later than September 8. In September 1971 there was 17.2 inches of snow in Denver, in 1936 there was 16.5 inches and in 1959 the city measured 12.9 inches of snow in September.

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/09/04/weather-whiplash-colorado-record-heat-cold-snow/

This article also mentioned the last measurable September snow at Denver occurred September 24th, 2000. So this hasn't happened at all in September in the last two decades. 

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5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I'm not sure what would be crazier on it's own there, the late 100+ heat or seeing the snow. Obviously the combination of the two things within a day is insane and historic, especially in terms of temp differentials and departures. But honestly the heat wave part of this is likely the more extreme thing. It's relatively normal for the Rockies to start seeing higher elevation snows in September and Denver in fact averages 1.3" in September. It would appear that the only snow record Denver would break looking at what's being forecast there is possibly the heaviest first snowfall of the season. The earliest is 4.2" Sept 3, 1961. 

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/09/04/weather-whiplash-colorado-record-heat-cold-snow/

This article also mentioned the last measurable September snow at Denver occurred September 24th, 2000. So this hasn't happened at all in September in the last two decades. 

Thanks for the info, Mag!  With a September snow occurring roughly once every 5 years they were horribly overdue.  Anxious to see how things turn out over the next 36 hours.

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On 9/7/2020 at 9:37 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

Anyone want to take a road trip to Denver today?

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON MDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches
  by early Wednesday.

* WHERE...The Front Range Urban Corridor.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Accumulating snow will impact area
  vegetation causing damage to trees and possible power outages.
  Roads could be slippery and slushy for the Tuesday evening and
  Wednesday morning commutes. Overnight low temperatures Tuesday
  night will drop into the 20s.

One of my friends posted this from Wyoming over a foot expected:

Image may contain: Bartley Kaminski, sitting and outdoor, text that says 'sind 20'

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Wow what a loop, if anyone sees this soon you can see the very robust storm in the Rockies wrapping in some of the wildfire smoke from California and Oregon. Insane how big those fires are and how much smoke is being generated.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southwest-truecolor-96-1-100-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Oregon-truecolor-96-1-50-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

I'll add in this shortwave IR snapshot. Every one of those black spots in California is a wildfire area, and there's several more further up in Oregon too.

2068993300_ScreenShot2020-09-08at8_52_16PM.thumb.png.b292595bbc0add55cd2b48145e1bc91e.png

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3 hours ago, canderson said:

I expect to hit 87 today and 84 tomorrow but it does look a bit cooler after. 

We're less than two weeks from the fall equinox, it's getting harder and harder for even the H-burg desert to get near that 90 degree mark without having a pretty anomalous airmass around. Looks really nice early next week after the passage of a system Sunday that might finally provide some regional rain chances. Also a chance of some thunderstorms mainly in the LSV tomorrow as well. The 12z Euro is actually quite robust on QPF especially in York/Lancaster counties. 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

We're less than two weeks from the fall equinox, it's getting harder and harder for even the H-burg desert to get near that 90 degree mark without having a pretty anomalous airmass around. Looks really nice early next week after the passage of a system Sunday that might finally provide some regional rain chances. Also a chance of some thunderstorms mainly in the LSV tomorrow as well. The 12z Euro is actually quite robust on QPF especially in York/Lancaster counties. 

Yes it is, and I guess at least in part due to that, Mt. Holly has hoisted flood watches for my bordering counties. 

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