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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My 5,000 post: (this is how we start a winter's day in these parts)

This is all in fun...please. I love to make fun of myself as much as I do anyone else. Please don't be offended.

12:01am: Blizzard of '93 posts the Ukie model showing a monster low with 25 different millimeter contours over the eastern US at hour 48. I think to myself, I guess those colors in our area look good?

12:03am: Williamsport points out that the Ukie actually moved further off the coast this run lol

1:15am: MAG says that the Euro buries the eastern half of PA.

1:17am: Williamsport points out that the Euro actually shifted 2.5 miles further east this run lol

1:18am: Blizzard of '93 excitedly posts a snow map - it's actually a snow map for a storm that's still 10 days out.

1:19am: Canderson boldly says that MDT will receive less than 4" because he's traveling to NYC in 2 days.

3:00am: MAG shows a super-juiced map of the latest NAM. Carlisle is under a 4" bullseye for total QPF.

5:30am: Pawatch wakes up and posts that he actually had 1" of snow overnight. Where is Garden View, anyway? 

6:01am: Sauss reports his fridge is stocked, and he froze his azz off this morning. He asks Canderson if it's windy across the river.

6:10am: Canderson quotes Sauss and says he's not sure, he has no trees left to blow over. 

6:13am: Bubbler reports that the GFS is wide right, and barely gets any precip into PA

6:14am: Williamsport says "yeah, this one wasn't for us guys lol"

6:15am: Itstrainingtime wishes that Horst hadn't retired

6:36am: Anduril says that traffic was bad in Camp Hill on his way to work, and there were Penn Dot drivers sitting on the shoulder of the Capital Beltway. I find this odd given that any storm is still 36 hours away

6:42am: Nut says that we'all are in for a good dumpin' except for our friggin' friend up in Williamsport. He says he wishes this would get us all...even though he really doesn't care if it snows in Williamsport or not

6:50am: Anotherman questions why there's a sharp cutoff in snow amounts over York and Lancaster. I start preparing my Horst "it's going to change over in our area" speech

7:01am: Superstorm says that Lancaster needs to watch out for mixing. I nod my head at my screen approvingly.

7:08am: Williamsport says that Pine Creek won't freeze over this winter because there's no water left to freeze lol

7:22am: Bubbler reports that it's 34 with a 36 mph wind in Rouzerville. In Maytown, it's 12 degrees with calm winds

7:24am: Paweather quotes Bubbler...at this point, I'm confused...is this Paweather 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5? 

7:34am: Daxx comes back and says that he'd want to be in Tamaqua for this storm. Thinks that areas S&E of Harrisburg will changeover

7:37am: Voyageur quotes daxx and shows him the latest Turkish model which shows a split right over Tamaqua

7:38am: Williamsport says "hey MAG, any chance of squalls from the arctic front in 6 days?" MAG doesn't respond

7:45am: Eskimo Joe says "Next"

7:58am: I make a prediction that many areas get far less snow than modeled due to mixing

8:01am: Blizzard of '93 chastises the yours truly and says that he'll rely on the NWS for his forecast

8:04am: Blizzard of '93 lashes out at CTP for not hoisting Winter Storm Watches yet...

 

And on we roll

 

 

 

This is funny and well done sir!

I am starting to get excited for the snow season. We flip the calendars to October next week!

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40 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would rather never get snow again than root for that team!

How many years did you live in Texas?

I have never lived in Texas.  My parents were Skin's fans so I had to do the opposite.  

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5 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS still has the cold shot for later next week but wonder how long it will last. 

GFS drops the hammer to the tune of 3-5" of rain mid week in Eastern PA.   Fun to look at for 6 hours. 

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Just now, paweather said:

Yes I saw that as well. Pretty intense until it becomes a glorified weak cold front in as you said 6 hours. :-) 

We should call that getting Fv3'ed.  

  • Haha 1

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Just a mention but the HRRR is suggesting the eastern part of the LSV gets some decent rain tonight. 

 

Edit-As does the NAM and EC for southern and eastern LSV.  Think the 20% zone forecasts should be upped a bit for some areas.  Hopeful.  Radar looks good for some rain. 

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3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just a mention but the HRRR is suggesting the eastern part of the LSV gets some decent rain tonight. 

 

Edit-As does the NAM and EC for southern and eastern LSV.  Think the 20% zone forecasts should be upped a bit for some areas.  Hopeful.  Radar looks good for some rain. 

The river up here still has a negative flow. :lol:

Garden View is a couple miles north of Williamsport.

image.png

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14 minutes ago, pawatch said:

The river up here still has a negative flow. :lol:

Garden View is a couple miles north of Williamsport.

image.png

Yea, nothing coming tonight to help that unfortunately. 

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31 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't know...unless either the trajectory of rain changes or the current areas of rain expands further back west, I don't see how what's on radar now gets all that close to me. That's just based on what is showing on radar currently. 

Its raining out in Western VA which is why I said radar looked good.  

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14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It MIGHT clip me later tonight. I'll give you that. :) 

Compared to the previous runs of rain missing even N VA the models were way too far south with this one.  Its actually raining here right now...very lightly.

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting info - I just came in and the sky here is almost perfectly clear.

There are little blips of rain passing over.  Not even making the road wet.  Had to turn on the wipers on the way home though. 

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Tracking the rain in the lower Sus Valley is a bit difficult due to the fact that both CCX (State College) AND LWX (Sterling, VA) radars have both been offline. Haven't seen anything about CCX in their discussions but the notes on RadarScope said it was having something installed Thursday that was supposed to only have had the radar down for 12 hrs.. so don't know what's up there. LWX radar had some kind of significant failure and it was noted on their website that its down til further notice with crews assessing the 26th (today). Good thing nothing major is going on, lol. In the meantime looks like best radar to use in the Sus Valley is either Mount Holly (KDIX) or BWI's terminal doppler radar (TBWI).

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23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Tracking the rain in the lower Sus Valley is a bit difficult due to the fact that both CCX (State College) AND LWX (Sterling, VA) radars have both been offline. Haven't seen anything about CCX in their discussions but the notes on RadarScope said it was having something installed Thursday that was supposed to only have had the radar down for 12 hrs.. so don't know what's up there. LWX radar had some kind of significant failure and it was noted on their website that its down til further notice with crews assessing the 26th (today). Good thing nothing major is going on, lol. In the meantime looks like best radar to use in the Sus Valley is either Mount Holly (KDIX) or BWI's terminal doppler radar (TBWI).

Yes...

Mount Holly works just fine for me during rain events, but I often seem to be just out of range during snowstorms. Lancaster proper seems to be the cutoff for effectiveness in the winter. 

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34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Tracking the rain in the lower Sus Valley is a bit difficult due to the fact that both CCX (State College) AND LWX (Sterling, VA) radars have both been offline. Haven't seen anything about CCX in their discussions but the notes on RadarScope said it was having something installed Thursday that was supposed to only have had the radar down for 12 hrs.. so don't know what's up there. LWX radar had some kind of significant failure and it was noted on their website that its down til further notice with crews assessing the 26th (today). Good thing nothing major is going on, lol. In the meantime looks like best radar to use in the Sus Valley is either Mount Holly (KDIX) or BWI's terminal doppler radar (TBWI).

It was raining here last night with no radar presence on the national radars I was viewing.  We ended up with about 1/10th of an inch and radar estimates say 0 so yea its all about eyeballing it this time. 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Tracking the rain in the lower Sus Valley is a bit difficult due to the fact that both CCX (State College) AND LWX (Sterling, VA) radars have both been offline. Haven't seen anything about CCX in their discussions but the notes on RadarScope said it was having something installed Thursday that was supposed to only have had the radar down for 12 hrs.. so don't know what's up there. LWX radar had some kind of significant failure and it was noted on their website that its down til further notice with crews assessing the 26th (today). Good thing nothing major is going on, lol. In the meantime looks like best radar to use in the Sus Valley is either Mount Holly (KDIX) or BWI's terminal doppler radar (TBWI).

Have been using Radarscope for many years and never realized you could get details about why a radar was offline. Your comment made me check it out, and although you don't get that info by clicking on the radar icon on the map - you can get it in the radar listings. Thanks!

On a side note, the expanded radar coverage in the last Radarscope update helps a bit when you need to select a nearby radar instead of the closest one.

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There is currently more light rain in Marysville that isn’t even showing on radar!

I’m supposed to stain our new fence today. Does anyone have an idea on how long it should take to clear up today?

 

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13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

There is currently more light rain in Marysville that isn’t even showing on radar!

I’m supposed to stain our new fence today. Does anyone have an idea on how long it should take to clear up today?

 

Same here though I would call it more of a heavy drizzle.   Last night it rained fairly hard for a short time with no radar confirmation.  Sat shows clouds and fog back into Ohio and way to our south so does not look like it will clear out too fast.  HRRR has VERY scattered showers in the LSV into this afternoon. 

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