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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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Eastern half of PA misses the swoosh of flooding rains but still comes up .5-1.5"" this weekend 1-4" from the 'Cane or 'Cane influenced rains.  That is some serious East Coast flooding there.   The Cape and LI would probably have terrible surge depending on tide times.

image.png.39dc5a02a791463501f17b5de2ed63cd.png

 

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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hit 94 and still a few hours to go. Probably get to 96. 

Do not recall a week where my temps have been consistently a lot lower than the eastern and central LSV with sunny skies.  88 here right now. 

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30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Eastern half of PA misses the swoosh of flooding rains but still comes up .5-1.5"" this weekend 1-4" from the 'Cane or 'Cane influenced rains.  That is some serious East Coast flooding there.   The Cape and LI would probably have terrible surge depending on tide times.

image.png.39dc5a02a791463501f17b5de2ed63cd.png

 

Pretty incredible how the area of 2"+ curves around you and Cashtown...crazy. 

18 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hit 94 and still a few hours to go. Probably get to 96. 

I've been holding steady at 93 for 2 hours. Interesting to see what you reach. 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Pretty incredible how the area of 2"+ curves around you and Cashtown...crazy. 

I've been holding steady at 93 for 2 hours. Interesting to see what you reach. 

We did not go above 88 but are still there.  The Great Valley does the dry folks in again as to that curve.   Rain is getting close. 

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Gosh is it humid out today.

National Hurricane Center now predicting Isaias will become a hurricane. Wonder if it will continue the North Eastward track?

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

93 was my high. Watching that impressive batch of rain getting ready to raid the parched lands of PA...

Going to be a fairly wet next 3 days.  Turn us from parched to excessively dry.  Pending Hurricane next week to get from moderate to slight drought. 

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Looks like a pretty decent slug of rain and imbedded storms setting up for the LSV later on roughly from the turnpike south, while diurnal convection fires in NW and northern PA. The D1 beat continues to live on here it would appear... as AOO-UNV looks like they're going to miss yet another widespread rain opportunity tonight. CTP shared these a little bit ago. Barely 0.5-1.5" of rain in the last 30 days right square in the middle of PA. I'd be curious what a 60 day looks like, cuz most of June was just about as dry here.

116495482_3358177367566660_4817385308538046440_n.png.8728d8a9559fbdfcb779a7a95303197e.png115926786_3358177817566615_5705221574602234074_n.png.b19f5267df7c5de6d3f1657d2d65f732.png

 

TS Isaias will definitely need to be watched closely for the eastern seaboard as we get into early next week. 12z Euro is much slower/somewhat NW than the 12z GFS (imagine that). Ensemble guidance from both the Euro and GFS seemed to indicate the eastern half of PA could be in line for effects from the western side of the system as the center comes up and curves NE. Heavy rain (and not necessarily a lot of wind) running up through especially from the Sus River eastward in PA is pretty standard boilerplate for a curving tropical system that essentially runs up or just off the coast. Timing of the system and the approaching trough that will eventually curve the storm up will certainly ensure plenty of uncertainty on forecast track for the next few days. Not to mention the storm is currently tangled up in Hispaniola which could pose even more timing/track issues as the storm is trying to redevelop it's center and move generally toward the Bahamas. 

 

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6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not a drop of rain here. Nothing. Heavy rain appears to be falling roughly 5-10 miles to my south.

We ended up with a ground wettner.  Maybe 1/10th.  LOL  Very light. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Radar was deceptive because it looked like you did better than that. :(

Yea, we had fairly dark greens but it was just a light rain when I went to bed and my gauge had around 1/10th this AM.    More to come though :-)

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

More rain coming this weekend but Euro and GFS both moved away from providing most of PA major tropical relief. 

Yes, I saw that. It seemed odds slightly favored a close whiff...if memory serves correctly a lot of tropical cyclones end up east of what was modeled as they get closer to our latitude. Even at the DE/MD beaches their have been evacuations over the years anticipating a significant impact only to see the storm venture a little further offshore. 

This book has more chapters to go so we'll see if the pattern allows the storm to tug inland a bit. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes, I saw that. It seemed odds slightly favored a close whiff...if memory serves correctly a lot of tropical cyclones end up east of what was modeled as they get closer to our latitude. Even at the DE/MD beaches their have been evacuations over the years anticipating a significant impact only to see the storm venture a little further offshore. 

This book has more chapters to go so we'll see if the pattern allows the storm to tug inland a bit. 

Yep, if it does not drive inland before the Outer Banks it usually just keeps going east.  Need the tug or a block to do a Hazel like loop-de-loop.

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Latest from WPC: (My rainfall total was already cut in half since yesterday's map)

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It's like Christmas in July.  Massive snow storm a week out starts the cuts as we get closer to the event. 

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46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, if it does not drive inland before the Outer Banks it usually just keeps going east.  Need the tug or a block to do a Hazel like loop-de-loop.

It really seems as if you need a Charleston SC to Wilmington NC landfall to get the remnants into central PA.

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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's like Christmas in July.  Massive snow storm a week out starts the cuts as we get closer to the event. 

That’s fine imo.   Too much at one time doesn’t do any good.   Especially here at the course 

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

That’s fine imo.   Too much at one time doesn’t do any good.   Especially here at the course 

I just wanted something in the 2-4" range to put a real dent in this.  another 1" rain will not help unless we get several more in fairly quickly succession (might help your grass but not the water ways that are drying up). That pond at Red Run is terrible right now. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's a nice A/C saving 75 at lunchtime. 

Cannot imagine not running the AC today. 

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

At noon I have already hit the forecast high of 81. It’s also incredibly muggy. 
 

I weeded this am and everything is dying. It’s sad. 

81 here as well. Feels gross out. 

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GFS brings it inland, or VERY close,  over Central Florida back out to come back  well inland through East Central NC and JUST misses being a big factor for the S/E LSV.  

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