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Cristobal Remnants June 9-10


Hoosier
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We'll see what the 12z Euro has but generally speaking, it and the UKMET have been stronger with the remnants of Cristobal as it enters the Midwest (especially the UK).  That of course affects the strength of the wind fields.    

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6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z UK has joined the GFS with a shift nw.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

It would be something to see the heaviest rains go west of Cedar Rapids.

This is anecdotal but imo, these remnant systems tend to tick farther east than progged at this range as they get into the mid latitudes.  No guarantees that happens this time though.  

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Definitely looking more and more likely that this will be something many of us have not seen around these parts, re: post-TC high/sig winds.

And in June of all months.  Not Sep/Oct when you would think it would be more likely.

Assuming it unfolds reasonably close to what's progged, I don't think it's inaccurate to call this setup unprecedented for the region and time of year, at least as far back as weather records go.

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Curious as to the severe potential with this once the more tropical thermodynamic profiles are somewhat muted into Wednesday. Anomalous wind fields at all levels and plenty of low level moisture would indicate the potential for a pretty significant squall at the very least.

A lot of things depend on the speed of Cristobal through the area.

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

MKX not really buying into that yet. My point forecast for Tuesday night says "winds could gust as high as 30 MPH." Wednesday is "A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75."

They need to look a little deeper into their Cristobal.

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3 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

They need to look a little deeper into their Cristobal.

It was only a matter of time until a 'crystal ball' reference.  No one would've wanted a crystal ball looking into this year's events, unless they could prevent some of the happenings...

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From what I can tell, there has only been one tropical system that landfalled in Louisiana or east of there and passed to the west of Chicago -- a tropical storm in 1906 that made landfall in the Florida panhandle. 

Sometimes it gets difficult to track the remnant lows as they dissipate, so I can't rule out some additional occurrences, but even if it's a few times, that is pretty rare since the tropical records go back over 150 years.

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6 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro is west as well.  As with other models, a bit more south-to-north than the previous ssw-nne runs.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

Seeing more QPF on the right side of the track is concerning, both for tornadic potential and the ability of convection (even if it’s just heavy showers) to drag that low level jet down to the surface. Many of the forecast soundings have low-level CAPE where the hodographs are long.

Euro’s 1-2 punch for the Great Lakes would lead to widespread erosion on most shores, with the worst of it in MI and WI. 

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I'd rather have thunderstorms than this stupid tropical system.  With no EML and the primary band coming through during the night there probably won't be much of any thunder... then it gets cool and dry.  Weird to have an October-like system with strong winds and a cold push in June.

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That shortwave that ejects into the Plains behind it is at a pretty low latitude and it quite strong for June. Would think there could be a considerable severe threat with it assuming the two are separated by a decent degree.

CIPS analogs are loaded with big events, but obviously there's a wrench in there with Cristobal.

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Might as well stay up for the day 3 outlook.

We look to start Tuesday with sun or at least filtered clouds around here, so temps should be able to warm up pretty nicely through the morning and possibly into part of afternoon.  Will be important to get as warm as possible before clouds become a bigger issue.

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51 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z Euro wind fields = :guitar:

The acceleration of those winds from the sfc to 700 mb is astounding for summer in these parts, UKMET is equally impressive. Even with a more tropical instability profile (tall, skinny CAPE), that kind of increase in winds will lead to convection. A slight risk is probably warranted with the model disagreement, but that’s some mdt risk potential on the Euro.

Getting into the hi-res range soon. Extended RPM is certainly convective a in IL, IN, MI, WI. 

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