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cheese007

Severe Weather April 28-29th 2020

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The current models show wind shear looking like it will be displaced away from most(?) of that threat area until late in the night, so for now that looks like it'll keep the tornado threat from reaching the levels that we've seen in the past couple of weeks. 

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D3 slight covering much of the same area 

EDIT: sig contour covering DFW into eastern OK as we

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Central to northeast Texas may have a loaded-gun type sounding, with 72 dew points, and some 850mb winds of 30-35 kt  in some areas. This could be a situation for isolated or scattered severe storms that are slow-moving with just enough 0-6 km shear for mesocylones. Otherwise, I expect widespread storms from Missouri southward to Texarkana and possibly Oklahoma City. These storms may be facing a situation that the better 500 mb wind/ 0-6 km shear is trying to catch up to the storms, and/or catch up to the higher 0-3km SRH.

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ENH risk on new day 2... 30% hatched hail in C OK and 30% hatched wind in TX/OK/W AR with talk of widespread damaging winds and some potentially significant 

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Summer-like threat tomorrow, only shifted a bit further south than we would normally see in the summer.

Strong NW flow atop meager/meh low-level winds, but abundant CAPE and moisture. Should be some pretty hefty hail tomorrow afternoon with the initial discrete convection across SE KS and into OK, developing into a mean squall line by evening.

Considering meandering my way down to SE KS tomorrow just for some hail and hopefully a beautiful shelf cloud, always a chance for an isolated tornado as well given ample low-level cape — but storm interactions/updraft seeding will probably mitigate that potential quite a bit.

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1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

Summer-like threat tomorrow, only shifted a bit further south than we would normally see in the summer.

Strong NW flow atop meager/meh low-level winds, but abundant CAPE and moisture. Should be some pretty hefty hail tomorrow afternoon with the initial discrete convection across SE KS and into OK, developing into a mean squall line by evening.

Considering meandering my way down to SE KS tomorrow just for some hail and hopefully a beautiful shelf cloud, always a chance for an isolated tornado as well given ample low-level cape — but storm interactions/updraft seeding will probably mitigate that potential quite a bit.

Yeah only have 2 pct TOR probs.

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SPC is right to get a 5% down to North Texas on the update. Little triple point will be there late afternoon; but, the cold front will overtake it by evening. I like the Texas (or southern OK) triple point for a virtual target. Then there's Iowa, the source of so many chaser inside jokes!

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A lot of 00z guidance develops a secondary SFC low across S KS/ N OK tomorrow morning/afternoon. This results in locally backed winds across southeastern KS and parts of northern Oklahoma, while low-level winds are still pretty lax, this leads to a much better looking hodograph -- and with ample 0-3km CAPE in place INVOF of the quasi triple-point, this could lead to a localized region of higher tornado potential with early discrete cells across the area.

Something of note to me is that SHIPS guidance is pretty ridiculous tomorrow for this same region... Could see some "gorilla" hail tomorrow for sure. Honestly would not be totally surprised to a MDT risk tomorrow for destructive hail and/or damaging winds given that every model shows widespread severe storms across S KS/N OK. Could even be a small 10% TOR risk across the area I mentioned above to account for an obviously higher potential for tornadoes with the initial discrete storms; but as I already stated, a big mitigating factor for tornadoes will be the lack of stronger low-level flow... so they probably wont introduce a 10% area.

Initial target/starting point for tomorrow would be in a triangle from Wichita, KS to Ponca City, OK to Independence, KS..

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22 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

A lot of 00z guidance develops a secondary SFC low across S KS/ N OK tomorrow morning/afternoon. This results in locally backed winds across southeastern KS and parts of northern Oklahoma, while low-level winds are still pretty lax, this leads to a much better looking hodograph -- and with ample 0-3km CAPE in place INVOF of the quasi triple-point, this could lead to a localized region of higher tornado potential with early discrete cells across the area.

Something of note to me is that SHIPS guidance is pretty ridiculous tomorrow for this same region... Could see some "gorilla" hail tomorrow for sure. Honestly would not be totally surprised to a MDT risk tomorrow for destructive hail and/or damaging winds given that every model shows widespread severe storms across S KS/N OK. Could even be a small 10% TOR risk across the area I mentioned above to account for an obviously higher potential for tornadoes with the initial discrete storms; but as I already stated, a big mitigating factor for tornadoes will be the lack of stronger low-level flow... so they probably wont introduce a 10% area.

Initial target/starting point for tomorrow would be in a triangle from Wichita, KS to Ponca City, OK to Independence, KS..

I think we see an expansion of the 30% hatched hail, and a 45% hatched wind added for Oklahoma/Arkansas/north Texas. I’m surprised there isn’t more talk about this event 

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Moderate risk for E OK.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1255 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2020  
 
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z  

 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. DAMAGING  
WINDS, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 65 MPH, AND VERY LARGE HAIL CAN  
BE EXPECTED.  
   
..SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
 
 
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS TOPPED THE WESTERN US RIDGE OVER THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS  
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MO/NORTHERN AR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
PERIOD. AS THIS FEATURE DIGS TOWARD NE/KS, A BIMODAL SURFACE LOW  
SHOULD EVOLVE WITH THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS  
NORTHERN IA INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY EARLY EVENING. THE SECONDARY LOW  
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN OK BY 18Z. AS THIS OCCURS,  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ALONG/AHEAD OF A SURGING COLD FRONT THAT  
WILL PLUNGE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY LATE EVENING.  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR  
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS TX INTO OK. LOWER  
70S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND 60F  
DEW POINTS ARE SPREADING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. LATEST THINKING IS  
STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM  
THE HIGH PLAINS, NOSING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OK. WITH SEASONALLY  
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN OK AS TEMPERATURES SOAR THROUGH THE 80S  
INTO THE LOWER 90S. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE PARCELS TO REACH THEIR  
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY 21-22Z. WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE,  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A BIT EARLIER ACROSS  
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THEN GROW UPSCALE WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE  
AIR MASS (MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG). THERE IS INCREASING  
CONCERN THAT A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SQUALL LINE WILL MATURE OVER  
EASTERN OK THEN SURGE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST TX. EARLY IN THE  
CONVECTIVE CYCLE, SCATTERED SUPERCELLS MAY BE OBSERVED; HOWEVER,  
STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND  
SURGE SOUTH WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
ACROSS OK EXHIBIT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE  
HAIL. SEVERE WINDS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE AS THE FRONTAL SQUALL  
LINE MATURES AND SURGES SOUTH. FOR THESE REASONS, HAVE INTRODUCED A  
MODERATE RISK FOR EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX. UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE WARRANTS HIGHER SEVERE  
PROBABILITIES EAST OF I-35. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED WEST A BIT  
IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF NECESSARY. SEVERE SQUALL LINE SHOULD SPREAD  
INTO NORTHEAST TX, POSSIBLY TRAILING WEST INTO THE METROPLEX DURING  
THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.  
   
..MIDWEST
 
 
STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO THE MID-MS  
VALLEY REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHIFTS  
ACROSS IA. DIFFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THIS REGION  
WHICH SHOULD AID SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MO,  
NORTH TO NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL  
GUIDANCE/CAMS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED DEEP  
CONVECTION, POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR, WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED  
REGIME. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INITIALLY A BIT DRY, RAPID  
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MO INTO IL AHEAD OF THE  
WIND SHIFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY TO EVOLVE THAT  
WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING  
WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS.  
 
..DARROW/WENDT.. 04/28/2020  

 

swody1_categorical.png

swody1_windprob.png

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1 hour ago, MUWX said:

I think we see an expansion of the 30% hatched hail, and a 45% hatched wind added for Oklahoma/Arkansas/north Texas. I’m surprised there isn’t more talk about this event 

Nailed the MDT risk location. And yeah, I guess it’s just because it’ll probably be more of a hail/damaging wind event, and maybe that just does not interest people much.

I think it’s been mentioned, but it’s a bit of an odd setup for late April for the plains. Reminds me more of a June setup that you’d see in N KS/S NEB.

Going out somewhere east of ICT tomorrow, totally ready for the awful road network in that area to screw me over. Besides, only expecting about two or maybe three hours of chasing before the line starts to accelerate too far south for me to want to chase it. 

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Meanwhile, the storm trekking through southern DFW is severe warned and has been dropping ping pong ball sized hail. Preview of later?

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4 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Meanwhile, the storm trekking through southern DFW is severe warned and has been dropping ping pong ball sized hail. Preview of later?

Pretty impressive hail swath across the metroplex early this morning.  Maxed out around 2" in Hurst I think.

hail_20200428_AM.png

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4 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Meanwhile, the storm trekking through southern DFW is severe warned and has been dropping ping pong ball sized hail. Preview of later?

Was so disoriented when my weather radio woke me up that I thought it was Tuesday night/Wednesday morning already :lol:

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Moderate risk expanded both north and south, 10% tornado/45% wind expanded and 45% hail area added on new day 1.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1126 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2020  
 
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z  

 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO TONIGHT FOR EASTERN OK...EXTREME WESTERN AR...AND NORTH  
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME GREATER  
THAN 75 MPH, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF TULSA AND OKLAHOMA CITY  
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS  
EVENING, AND DALLAS-FORT WORTH OVERNIGHT.  
   
..MO/KS/OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO EAST TX/LA/MS OVERNIGHT
 
 
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM TX TO OK AND  
SOUTHEAST KS, SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
KS, AND WEST OF THE MORNING CONVECTION FROM TEXARKANA SOUTHWARD  
ALONG THE SABINE RIVER. THIS MOISTENING IS OCCURRING BENEATH A  
PLUME OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM. SURFACE  
HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST MLCAPE INTO THE 2500-3500  
J/KG RANGE FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN  
OK. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE FRONT BY MID  
AFTERNOON, WITH RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST  
AFTER 21Z FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO MO.  
 
THE INITIAL STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL POSE SOME THREAT FOR  
TORNADOES, GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH LARGE BUOYANCY AND  
VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FAIRLY RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH  
INTO A LINE IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS BACK-BUILDING  
INTO CENTRAL OK. A MIX OF MULTICELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED  
SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. ASIDE FROM A  
FEW TORNADOES WITH CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE, THE LARGE  
CAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR BOTH LARGE HAIL  
(ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS), AND INTENSE DOWNBURSTS WITH  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SURGE  
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OK/AR INTO EAST TX, WITH  
THE THREAT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING. THERE  
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE GREATER  
SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE MS RIVER LATE TONIGHT, GIVEN THE RESIDUAL  
INFLUENCE OF THE ONGOING SABINE RIVER STORMS AND POSSIBLE  
DISRUPTIONS IN DESTABILIZATION.  
   
..UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
 
 
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC CYCLONE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE IA/MN  
BORDER TOWARD SOUTHERN WI TODAY, IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED LEAD  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKEWISE MOVING EASTWARD OVER MN/IA. LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST,  
BUT SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF  
56-60 F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. MASS  
RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPHS  
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE AND TRAILING COLD  
FRONT, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, AS WELL  
AS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  
   
..EAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA TODAY
 
 
AN ONGOING, LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE SABINE  
RIVER MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A TENDENCY FOR NEW  
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE CLUSTER AS THE LOW LEVELS WARM  
AND MOISTEN FROM THE SOUTH. MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT  
STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL, THOUGH RATHER MODEST  
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE THE MAIN  
CONVECTIVE MODE. LIKEWISE, OCCASIONAL DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
   
..CENTRAL/EASTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
 
 
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THIS AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY  
FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH (NOW OVER  
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS DENOTED BY THE BAND OF RAIN NOW MOVING  
INTO NORTHWEST NE). THERE WILL SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE FOR WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE  
OF THE SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE. SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL  
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WHERE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR  
STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
..THOMPSON/LYONS.. 04/28/2020  

 

swody1_categorical.png

swody1_tornadoprob.png

swody1_hailprob.png

swody1_windprob.png

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3 hours ago, radarman said:

Pretty impressive hail swath across the metroplex early this morning.  Maxed out around 2" in Hurst I think.

 

Is that from the MRMS web site?

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59 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Is that from the MRMS web site?

No it's just something I whipped up this morning from the CASA radar derived hail product in DFW.

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First noteworthy MD of the event

Mesoscale Discussion 0484
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Kansas...eastern Oklahoma...southwest
   Missouri...northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281855Z - 282130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will develop by 21Z along and ahead of a cold
   front, and quickly become severe. Damaging hail, wind, and a few
   tornadoes are all possible.

   DISCUSSION...A surface trough extends from western OK northeastward
   across IA, with a low over northwest OK at 19Z. Meanwhile, a
   stronger cold front was surging across central KS, and across the
   Panhandles.

   Strong instability has developed near the surface trough, beneath
   very steep lapse rates aloft. Early and midday soundings show
   700-500 mb lapse rates to around 9 C/km, beneath modest northwest
   flow aloft. Meanwhile, southery surface winds are maintaining mid
   60s F dewpoints south of the cold front, resulting in strong
   instability. 

   Storms are likely to develop along and ahead of the surging front
   over KS, and become severe as they encounter the stronger
   instability. Large hail is likely initially, transitioning to
   damaging winds. Initial cellular activity may produce a brief
   tornado. As the storms move southward across eastern OK, access to
   greater low-level SRH may yield a few tornadoes, perhaps with cells
   in the line or brief QLCS.

   Farther west, steep low-level lapse rates exist over western OK and
   northwest TX, and this may help to eventually break the cap as the
   wind shift moves south toward I-40 later today. While a capping
   inversion does exist, the western fringe of the frontal storms will
   likely be severe, producing damaging hail and wind.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 04/28/2020

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TOR warning in SE TX, south/southwest of Houston, separate from the main system

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.

* AT 222 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
  WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST COLUMBIA, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

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9 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

TOR warning in SE TX, south/southwest of Houston, separate from the main system

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.

* AT 222 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
  WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST COLUMBIA, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

Which just had a confirmed tornado not even 2 weeks ago. 

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Tornado warning for areas west of Elk City for embedded rotation in the line. We'll probably see quite a bit of that today. 

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A bit outside this subforum I think, but the storm north of Peoria, IL has a look to it, can't see much else at the moment other than large hail showing up.

Edit: Ehh I don't know I can't see the velocity and after the next scan makes it look a little less organized on reflectivity? Honestly don't know. Hail core still there for sure. I don't know much about the environment around it either.

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Here is what I found for the MRMS calculated hail swath across DFW (one-hour only). Color bar is in millimeters, so 25mm = 1"

f5J6ABg.jpg

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