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mappy

COVID-19 Talk

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Move on please

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4 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said:

And your an authoritarian fear monger who is rude and obnoxious.  But I’m still glad you are free to be the way you are.  

wow

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@wxtrix poverty and crime are correlated at a statistically significant level. However there are multiple other factors so it’s not 1:1. There can be some poor areas that do better and some wealthy that do worse. And predominantly white regions with high povert have the same correlation so bringing race into this was unwarranted. 

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I half have a feeling that some people want this thread nuked. Y’all please let’s not just spend 2 pages commenting on mods or on poverty and race and crime.

 

So it looks like several other states opened up today. Just first stage openings save for some of the crazy states with full reopenings. Here’s a map.

Most employers are still not bringing people in, most restaurants are staying closed, and it seems like today was a dud for retail stores with only a couple customers being reported at some.

So tbh the ground truth may be that open or not, people aren’t rushing to eat at Applebee’s and be socially close.

 

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@mappy Ugh sorry posted a reply before I read the rest of the thread. If you want to remove it I understand...but I do think maybe it’s worth leaving a factual retort to what was left implied by that post.  

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@wxtrix poverty and crime are correlated at a statistically significant level. However there are multiple other factors so it’s not 1:1. There can be some poor areas that do better and some wealthy that do worse. And predominantly white regions with high povert have the same correlation so bringing race into this was unwarranted. 

yes I'm fully informed about that.

my larger point was the singling out of Flint and the comment along the lines of "of course it would be Flint" and the highlighting of a murder, when there are now near-daily demonstrations, some armed, in affluent white areas around the country, and the excuse that the criticism was based in statistics around Detroit and for some reason Baltimore, which wasn't part of the story.

and Stillwater, OK rescinded its mask requirement because wait and retail staff were threatened with physical violence, and in one case with a firearm, because they asked customers to respect the mask law.  so it's not just Flint.

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Ocean City mayor announced beaches, boardwalk, inlet parking lot and access points will be re opening Saturday. 

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55 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Ocean City mayor announced beaches, boardwalk, inlet parking lot and access points will be re opening Saturday. 

Not the shops though right? What about the walk up food booths?

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7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Not the shops though right? What about the walk up food booths?

I understood that any food establishments could still technically do carry out, just like any other restaurants in the state. The retail stuff would still be under state order to be closed so I don’t think there’s much to do about that 

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4 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

I read it as "ready to open - pending a lift of the stay at home order that is currently through the 15th"?

No it’s not pending that. The “stay at home order” doesn’t prevent you from going outside to a public park. What makes a beach any different? 

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This thread is so much better when we are talking about the logistics of dealing with the coronavirus and updates on things going on in the area. 

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8 hours ago, understudyhero said:

I read it as "ready to open - pending a lift of the stay at home order that is currently through the 15th"?

the beach, access points, boardwalk and inlet parking will be open for locals only. Social distancing will still be required, though no masks are required on the beach. The goal is to let the locals living in OC be able to go walk the boardwalk and beach. It is not meant for tourist to go to the beach

 

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34 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

I know they are saying locals only... but does anyone think there’s a chance in hell it ends up that way?

No. Not unless they intend to set up a roadblock. Lol.

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6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

No. Not unless they intend to set up a roadblock. Lol.

You know there will be Pennsylvania plate “locals”

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On the topic of kids, recent studies failed to find a single case of a child passing the virus to an adult. While I'm sure it's happened somewhere at some point, the only research and data we have right now seems to show that kids just never really become contagious. 

One of the examples cited was a 9 year old British boy. They carried out contact tracing and out of the 170 people he came into contact with, 0 caught the virus. 

Open everything up as if nothing were wrong? No, but we should be putting together plans on how to get kids to back school this fall. Take the summer to develop a plan that protects teachers from other parents and staff, but it's becoming more and more clear it's not kids who are spreading this thing. 

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1 hour ago, ErinInTheSky said:

I know they are saying locals only... but does anyone think there’s a chance in hell it ends up that way?

Right, it’s the same as the non essential travel thing. People aren’t going to be randomly pulled over. You’ll only get caught if you do something stupid. The weather won’t be supportive of people randomly going though for the next week to 10 days so it probably won’t be to bad until next weekend 

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https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub

Tool for ensemble fans 
 
"The ensemble forecast combines models unconditional on particular interventions being in place with those conditional on certain social distancing measures continuing. To ensure consistency, only models with 4 week-ahead forecasts ahead are included in the ensemble." 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

On the topic of kids, recent studies failed to find a single case of a child passing the virus to an adult. While I'm sure it's happened somewhere at some point, the only research and data we have right now seems to show that kids just never really become contagious. 

One of the examples cited was a 9 year old British boy. They carried out contact tracing and out of the 170 people he came into contact with, 0 caught the virus. 

Open everything up as if nothing were wrong? No, but we should be putting together plans on how to get kids to back school this fall. Take the summer to develop a plan that protects teachers from other parents and staff, but it's becoming more and more clear it's not kids who are spreading this thing. 

You’re selectively reading studies. There are LOTS of studies showing reduction in transmission from closing schools, or that kids can transmit the virus, etc, including one that was just published in the Lancet. Try not to just freewheel you’re understanding on random studies you find, there are people with a lot of training paid a lot of money to collect and judge the best solutions based on what’s not there.

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

You’re selectively reading studies. There are LOTS of studies showing reduction in transmission from closing schools, or that kids can transmit the virus, etc, including one that was just published in the Lancet. Try not to just freewheel you’re understanding on random studies you find, there are people with a lot of training paid a lot of money to collect and judge the best solutions based on what’s not there.

 

He cited a legitimate study.. what's your problem? It doesn't fit your agenda of doom and fear?

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2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

He cited a legitimate study.. what's your problem? It doesn't fit your agenda of doom and fear?

Do you completely lack reading comprehension? Reread everything I wrote and try again.

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Literally the guy who wrote the study being cited here (Alasdair Munro) like "No, you're reading this study wrong" and other studies, published in the Lancet, have found the opposite.

This in part stems from the fact that most studies have taken place after schools were closed, and Children are not going to be primary transfer points of disease in those cases.

 

He's even raging about it on Twitter right now lol. Retweeting from people saying that hid study shows schools should remain closed. Munro just retweeted this:

 

 

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Has there or has there not been a case traced back to a child under 10 passing this to an adult? That's the headline I read..

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2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Has there or has there not been a case traced back to a child under 10 passing this to an adult? That's the headline I read..

That headline is exactly what he's raging about. There have been plenty of cases of kids under 10 passing to adults. In the study, they looked at a hundred or so households and none of them had the index case be a kid under 10 years old. He specifically states that the reason for this may be because children are less likely to be symptomatic and thus less likely to be discovered as the index case.

 

You can read more from one of his colleagues here:

 

 

 

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