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COVID-19 Talk

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Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

Make sense.  I guess the predictions of people making a mad dash for Applebees after their tyrannical government allowed them to leave their house never materialized.  At this point, opening things up is a paper exercise.  There is pent-up demand for sitting on a beach, but not sitting at a restaurant.

Yeah, I think people feel a lot more comfortable outside (for whatever it's worth). I hope to god the people here who keep saying "I think outside is fine" are right.

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39 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

social distancing was done in 1918.

the proven science about flattening the curve was first published in 2007.

flattening the curve, along with widespread testing and contact tracing was done in Mexico in 2009 for a short while (once it was determined that H1N1 was not more lethal than seasonal influenza).

flattening/testing/tracing have been successful in 2020 in other countries. 

why are you posting lies?

Exactly.  There's the somewhat "famous" plot of data from 1918, showing cases in Philadelphia vs. St. Louis.  It's clear what happened doing nothing vs. some measure of lock-down.  This is not something new, nor is it some conspiracy.  Quarantines have been around since...forever?

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Exactly.  There's the somewhat "famous" plot of data from 1918, showing cases in Philadelphia vs. St. Louis.  It's clear what happened doing nothing vs. some measure of lock-down.  This is not something new, nor is it some conspiracy.  Quarantines have been around since...forever?

It’s another excuse for people to exercise what they think of as “freedom” which really just means acting like a toddler and shirking their responsibilities as citizens. 

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1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Yeah, I think people feel a lot more comfortable outside (for whatever it's worth). I hope to god the people here who keep saying "I think outside is fine" are right.

I've gone out just for some walks or occasional bike rides.  Or to go take photos (I'm not far from the Audubon nature center).  But I'm pretty well by myself, not really around anyone unless I pass by them.  And for the most part, people tend to "cut a swath" around others.  But I'm not going to play sports or be in a large group.  I play in an alumni softball league, have for the past many summers (until I broke a finger during a game last July, dammit!).  I don't think we'll be playing this year at all, or if so, it will only be a handful of games.  They have a big tournament every August which is a lot of fun and quite the event...I suspect that won't be happening either.  It sucks, but that's how it is and I cannot blame them if they decide to essentially cancel this year.  (Side note:  it doubly sucks for me, because I was unable to play in last year's tournament due to said broken finger, LOL!!  I still went to enjoy the festivities and take pictures...and partake of the food and beer...however!).

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24 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

 

It’s one of the poorest cities in America...high crime rate, etc. Baltimore would be on the list too lol

dude...

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2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

That one model that came out with the huge death number initially then backed way off is now back to the huge number again. This is nuts

The methodology for the projections (IHME model) included a continuation of widespread social distancing through August 1. Clearly that aspect has changed with the premature 'reopening' in many places. Model output adjusts to changes in input data. And ofc they are still mostly wrong lol.

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I think at this point, the testing and tracing capacity is really the remaining hope to control things nationally. I hope that places that have partially opened up will at least evaluate where things stand. But probably will be early or mid June before there’s any noticeable trend. Seems the country is just going to accept 1-3K deaths per day. Got to keep increasing testing capacity.

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17 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

dude...

I don’t want to derail the thread here too bad...and I know your argument probably is it could happen anywhere. Sure, of course. But poverty and high crime rate go hand in hand. If I had a choice to live in Flint MI or Columbia MD, id chose Columbia every time 

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30 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Interesting. It doesn’t seem to me like we’d get to 3,000 deaths a day if we keep up the mitigation but I’m just spitballing obviously. 

Ack! Don't spit-ball at a time like this--that's unsanitary :lol: (unsanitary pre-pandemic...downright radio-active waste during it!)

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10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I don’t want to derail the thread here too bad...and I know your argument probably is it could happen anywhere. Sure, of course. But poverty and high crime rate go hand in hand. If I had a choice to live in Flint MI or Columbia MD, id chose Columbia every time 

because black people are inherently more violent?

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27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think at this point, the testing and tracing capacity is really the remaining hope to control things nationally. I hope that places that have partially opened up will at least evaluate where things stand. But probably will be early or mid June before there’s any noticeable trend. Seems the country is just going to accept 1-3K deaths per day. Got to keep increasing testing capacity.

it's not the country that is accepting this.  I don't know anyone in real life who is OK with all of this death. most of them are brought to tears by the rising death count.

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37 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I've gone out just for some walks or occasional bike rides.  Or to go take photos (I'm not far from the Audubon nature center).  But I'm pretty well by myself, not really around anyone unless I pass by them.  And for the most part, people tend to "cut a swath" around others.  But I'm not going to play sports or be in a large group.  I play in an alumni softball league, have for the past many summers (until I broke a finger during a game last July, dammit!).  I don't think we'll be playing this year at all, or if so, it will only be a handful of games.  They have a big tournament every August which is a lot of fun and quite the event...I suspect that won't be happening either.  It sucks, but that's how it is and I cannot blame them if they decide to essentially cancel this year.  (Side note:  it doubly sucks for me, because I was unable to play in last year's tournament due to said broken finger, LOL!!  I still went to enjoy the festivities and take pictures...and partake of the food and beer...however!).

Sorry. Let me refine that because I’m outside plenty. I hope the people who think it’s fine to be 6 feel away from others or closer outside are right. 

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3 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

because black people are inherently more violent?

Did I even mention race? I talked about poverty levels and and high crime. It’s not a secret that higher crime is linked to High poverty levels. If you want to draw other conclusions from that feel free. Is it racist to want to live in a safe city?

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14 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

because black people are inherently more violent?

Despite what you may have thought he meant, he never mentioned race. I think we can end this topic though and move on. It’s not going to go anywhere fun

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19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The IHME has been about as accurate as the GFS was for Joaquin IMBY

I know. I’m just trying to post information of note without pontificating too much. 

Looking forward to your next GFS related avatar lol

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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

It’s another excuse for people to exercise what they think of as “freedom” which really just means acting like a toddler and shirking their responsibilities as citizens. 

But haircuts, tattoos, and nails are important too. Worth the risk. Liberate!

 

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

Did I even mention race? I talked about poverty levels and and high crime. It’s not a secret that higher crime is linked to High poverty levels. If you want to draw other conclusions from that feel free. Is it racist to want to live in a safe city?

 

this simply is not true.

 

2117170873_Screenshot_2020-05-04Listofthe100largestcitiesrankedbyPovertyRate.png.2e3162c8f550fc1de82bbf54e8620f52.png

https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/quick-facts/cities/rank/percent-of-people-of-all-ages-in-poverty

102507321_Screenshot_2020-05-04WhichUSCitiesAretheMostDangerous-Securityorg.png.d56e33f637070ebc03bae1a4005bbf5b.png

https://www.security.org/resources/most-dangerous-cities/

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Despite what you may have thought he meant, he never mentioned race. I think we can end this topic though and move on. It’s not going to go anywhere fun

what he posted is not supported by facts.

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12 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

what he posted is not supported by facts.

And you posted a follow up with support to say he was factual incorrect. However only you mentioned race. 
 

regardless, it’s done. Move on please

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Need a per capita violent crime stat there to compare 

If you click the link its per 100k people.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

If you click the link its per 100k people.

Oh ok I was just looking at the pic

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Discussions/debates on poverty and crime correlation is way off topic for this thread though. Best to move on, as mappy said.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looking forward to your next GFS related avatar lol

It’ll be for the modeled cat 5 up the bay this summer that whiffs us and hits Newfoundland. Remember this post. :lol:

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3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Many of those cities have high poverty rates above the national average...it is not a stretch at all to say there’s a link between crime and poverty. Of course there are some exceptions. 

And I think you have to consider assaults, robberies,  and thefts of all kinds when correlating crimes and poverty or at least financially disadvantaged individuals, not just violent crimes.

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

And I think you have to consider assaults, robberies,  and thefts of all kinds when correlating crimes and poverty or at least financially disadvantaged individuals, not just violent crimes.

Yeah, I apologize for clogging the thread, but I’m going to defend myself when somebody comes at me for a simple comment. If one didn’t like it or didn’t agree, they could have moved on. 

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