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IWXwx

Spring/Summer 2020 Banter/Complaint Thread

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Wichita, Goodland, North Platte, Denver, the entire state of Michigan 3 warnings. Seattle 4 Boise 4 Albany 6 Bakersfield 3. Up is down and left is right.

#2020

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1 hour ago, Kitchener poster said:

42 degrees this morning. Stiff breeze by 9 am. Dry air. Punt all 3 of them. Where is my gulf air?

You mean you do not like Canadian air? Might be time to relocate to Belize or Tonga.

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Everyone without a boat or pool is probably happy without the heat.

Including me.

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These cell phone disruptions are annoying.  Was wondering why I wasn't getting any calls or texts since this afternoon.  <_<

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If anyone here is watching the final round of the RBC Heritage, it’s frustrating.  0-10% chance of anything and this cell pops up about 5 miles NW of Harbour Town, stationary.  In the meantime more cells popping up.  I don’t understand in these warm humid setups like the SE coast they should always keep in a low chance for a pop up because it seems to happen often enough, even when they aren’t expecting them.

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The 5-10 day forecast was pure awesome. Very humid. Light winds from the SW. moderate risks for good afternoon t-storms almost daily. 

Wiped away. Mundane. Rock ya asleep. 

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Flat out pathetic thunderstorm season.  First enhanced risk in awhile and we were socked in with clouds, and Chicago gets hit with the better stuff again.

Not even a lightning strike within 10-15 miles, I wouldn't complain about even a garden variety storm.

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2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

Flat out pathetic thunderstorm season.  First enhanced risk in awhile and we were socked in with clouds, and Chicago gets hit with the better stuff again.

Yeah I’d kill for even a late night  MCS with vivid lightning.  The pattern has been really wonky this year  

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Beautiful summer in full swing.  Nice stretches of sunny,  warm days and cool nights up to this point.  Been busy roofing the cabin (and hopefully painting), getting firewood and taking care of the garden.  Time sure does fly.

Got a visitor last night after dinner.  Grilling in the north woods, you never know what's lurking...lol  This guys been here before.  He'll be pretty big by Fall, eating up to 20 hours a day now.  I just stay out of their way and they do the same.

WGI_0003.JPG

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I remember the old days when we used to have occasionally interesting weather between April and November.

My weather interest has really waned. 

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6 hours ago, Jonger said:

I remember the old days when we used to have occasionally interesting weather between April and November.

My weather interest has really waned. 

Highly amplified patterns seem to be becoming more common.  It's either a massive ridge in the center of the CONUS with NW flow,  or digging east coast cutoff low.  Both scenarios are mostly dry east of Lake Michigan, because the low-level jet is confined either the Upper Mississippi Valley (former case) or High Plains (later case).  More zonal patterns that bring interesting weather to the Great Lakes by pulling the low-level jet east are so transient lately.  

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3 hours ago, frostfern said:

Highly amplified patterns seem to be becoming more common.  It's either a massive ridge in the center of the CONUS with NW flow,  or digging east coast cutoff low.  Both scenarios are mostly dry east of Lake Michigan, because the low-level jet is confined either the Upper Mississippi Valley (former case) or High Plains (later case).  More zonal patterns that bring interesting weather to the Great Lakes by pulling the low-level jet east are so transient lately.  

Back before 2000 we seemed to have night time storms all summer long. I remember spending the summer listening to thunder rumble in the middle of the night.

Those days are long gone. It's just dry now.

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10 hours ago, Jonger said:

Back before 2000 we seemed to have night time storms all summer long. I remember spending the summer listening to thunder rumble in the middle of the night.

Those days are long gone. It's just dry now.

The arctic was cooler back then.  Climate change is reducing the baroclinicity.  These amplified wavy jets, east coast cutoffs, etc.. are garbage for t-storms in lake shadow areas.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

lush and green here, thunder on the reg

Lake Michigan is a major barrier in these weak-flow patterns.  Chicago is a wet summer microclimate with ample lake-breeze convergence whenever there is SW flow.  SE flow that is moist enough to actually trigger thunder with lake convergence is more rare.  SW flow is always the most moist.

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Just hot getting hotter here, and we are on an island of dry for the next 10 days too.

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Lake Michigan is a major barrier in these weak-flow patterns.  Chicago is a wet summer microclimate with ample lake-breeze convergence whenever there is SW flow.  SE flow that is moist enough to actually trigger thunder with lake convergence is more rare.  SW flow is always the most moist.

My parents lived in Kankakee just before I was born (I was conceived there :) ), my mother always talked about the T-storms and how much they used to terrify her.

Basically she was telling me that our severe weather is crap in comparison. 

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

My parents lived in Kankakee just before I was born (I was conceived there :) ), my mother always talked about the T-storms and how much they used to terrify her.

Basically she was telling me that our severe weather is crap in comparison. 

Illinois has always had more general summer convective rainfall than Michigan and it's a sharp gradient right near southern Lake Michigan.  I think maybe the gradient has shifted a little from being more NW-SE oriented to NNW-SSE oriented.  For instance, northern Wisconsin may be getting more thunderstorm days while NE Ohio / SE Michigan / SE Ontario are getting less.  I wish I could look at the data to confirm this though.  It just the mid-summer pattern though.  Increased stratiform precip in every other seasons has caused a general increase in precipitation overall.  Also, infrequent but very heavy rain events associated with tropical moisture may be becoming more common and this can easily cancel any drying trend due to decrease in continental ridge-rider type MCS activity.

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Illinois has always had more general summer convective rainfall than Michigan and it's a sharp gradient right near southern Lake Michigan.  I think maybe the gradient has shifted a little from being more NW-SE oriented to NNW-SSE oriented.  For instance, northern Wisconsin may be getting more thunderstorm days while NE Ohio / SE Michigan / SE Ontario are getting less.  I wish I could look at the data to confirm this though.  It just the mid-summer pattern though.  Increased stratiform precip in every other seasons has caused a general increase in precipitation overall.  Also, infrequent but very heavy rain events associated with tropical moisture may be becoming more common and this can easily cancel any drying trend due to decrease in continental ridge-rider type MCS activity.

I know Rockford is just about the peak city in the Midwest for summer convection frequency (intensity is another story, the Central Plains most likely take the cake in that area).

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