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That’s like saying that Hurricane Watches are useless and people should wait until the death toll/structural damage numbers of a storm come in.
The death/recovery rates lag by a couple weeks from initial symptoms. If you have a sudden surge of cases, you can at least try to prepare a week or so in advance.
With all the assymptomatic cases it may be like trying to place a hurricane warning on the US coast based on one ship report in the Leeward Islands. I have my doubts there will ever be enough tests or people to run down every contact. We are about 6 weeks into social distancing and almost as long into the shut down and still getting record numbers. Yeah, there are more tests but still getting that many positives is concerning.

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46 minutes ago, hoosierwx said:

With all the assymptomatic cases it may be like trying to place a hurricane warning on the US coast based on one ship report in the Leeward Islands. I have my doubts there will ever be enough tests or people to run down every contact. We are about 6 weeks into social distancing and almost as long into the shut down and still getting record numbers. Yeah, there are more tests but still getting that many positives is concerning.

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Bingo

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13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Attn:  Indiana people.  I found a site that has statewide and county by county hospitalization data.

https://www.regenstrief.org/covid-dashboard/

Here's the chart for IN.  Positive news is that the hospitalization curve appears to be flattening in recent days.  But the discharges have basically flattened as well.

Screenshot_20200425-211117.thumb.png.f6095d272e84978ef7a13eb0d6a760bc.png

This is the exact data we need. IL probably can’t afford to develop this, but I wonder how something like this compares to seasonal flu.  That to me makes the determination as to the severity of this, given testing isn’t where it needs to be. 

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2 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

With all the assymptomatic cases it may be like trying to place a hurricane warning on the US coast based on one ship report in the Leeward Islands. I have my doubts there will ever be enough tests or people to run down every contact. We are about 6 weeks into social distancing and almost as long into the shut down and still getting record numbers. Yeah, there are more tests but still getting that many positives is concerning.

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Yes that’s what I can’t comprehend.  I understand the higher rate of testing but why are the numbers still so high 

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The virus may have been present here for a much longer time in the general asymptomatic population than originally thought, as some reports have indicated.  It may have more recently mutated to increase its potency and virulence among humans than was previously the case.  It's sort of like reminding ourselves that wall clouds can be rather prevalent, but the majority of wall clouds do not produce tornadoes.

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14 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

With all the assymptomatic cases it may be like trying to place a hurricane warning on the US coast based on one ship report in the Leeward Islands. I have my doubts there will ever be enough tests or people to run down every contact. We are about 6 weeks into social distancing and almost as long into the shut down and still getting record numbers. Yeah, there are more tests but still getting that many positives is concerning.

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Asymptomatic carriers still test positive and just drives the case for more testing. You’re not stuck just relying on telltale signs like coughing and sneezing to isolate potential carriers.
 

Weekly or even daily tests at high-risk facilities like meat-packing plants would be wise - those who test positive are sent home for two weeks and the plant doesn’t shut down. 

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Asymptomatic carriers still test positive and just drives the case for more testing. You’re not stuck just relying on telltale signs like coughing and sneezing to isolate potential carriers.
 
Weekly or even daily tests at high-risk facilities like meat-packing plants would be wise - those who test positive are sent home for two weeks and the plant doesn’t shut down. 
No one is arguing the merits of testing. You are talking about going from a half million tests per day to tens of millions of tests per day. I hope it can be done but it seems a little pie in the sky to me.

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3 minutes ago, Snownado said:

4 days later and the media is still talking about Trump's disinfectant comment. Unreal.

Multiple states said they had calls into 911 or state health departments regarding taking disinfectants for the virus.  It is hard to imagine some people could be that stupid but I guess so.

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On 4/26/2020 at 10:28 AM, RyanDe680 said:

Yes that’s what I can’t comprehend.  I understand the higher rate of testing but why are the numbers still so high 

% positive per test over time is a huge mess number or so i’m told because in communities that are in crisis use of available tests will reflect urgent clinical priorities, hence NYC at one point hitting 50% positive per test because healthcare teams were trying to confirm what they suspected in the already sick patients they were getting so they could pursue appropriate care and precautions.

vs. when tests are deployed for epidemic surveillance and its low, like south korea finding 2% positive per test

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The positive hit rate on cases in Indiana has been really high the past few days... like well over 30%.  The long term statewide average (since testing began) is around 19%

A lot of this can be attributed to the big outbreak at the Tyson plant in Cass county.

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my reckon tho is i suspect that to make that category more useful even provisionally than “persistently high returns of percent positive is bad, you want that number to go down” we’d actually need to get some epidemiologists & statisticians drunk and trick them into dropping their candid gut takes

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On 4/26/2020 at 10:38 AM, Indystorm said:

The virus may have been present here for a much longer time in the general asymptomatic population than originally thought, as some reports have indicated.  It may have more recently mutated to increase its potency and virulence among humans than was previously the case.  It's sort of like reminding ourselves that wall clouds can be rather prevalent, but the majority of wall clouds do not produce tornadoes.

trevor bedford argues based on relatively low genetic diversity and relationships among lineages identified through sampling, and observed patterns of spread that evidence points to emergence in wuhan ca. nov 2019. probably from bats or bats + a another reservoir with lots of human contact or affinity. its always the freakin bats.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253038551869960192?s=20

idk that’d i’d heard there was a candidate endemic human virus people were saying possibly did a big ol reassortment, that’d be interesting

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On 4/26/2020 at 10:26 AM, RyanDe680 said:

This is the exact data we need. IL probably can’t afford to develop this, but I wonder how something like this compares to seasonal flu.  That to me makes the determination as to the severity of this, given testing isn’t where it needs to be. 

what was the recent milestone? seasonal flu is now the hard lower bound of how severe it is? because now by BoE if every person in NYS who is going to get it has already caught it and every one of those who is going to die from it already has, then it would be like the flu
 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

A lot of this can be attributed to the big outbreak at the Tyson plant in Cass county.

Regarding Cass county.  They are cracking down:

 

Mayor Chris Martin has declared an executive order for Cass County that began at noon today.

The announcement came during a joint press conference among representatives of the City of Logansport, Cass County Commissioners, the Cass County Health Department and Logansport Memorial Hospital that was held at McHale Performing Arts Center and streamed live starting at 11 a.m. 

 

Meanwhile, officials are still pouring over the latest data on the number of positive tests in Cass County for COVID-19. The Indiana State Department of Health's latest data shows 1,025 reported cases in Cass County, but officials fear that number will increase dramatically after complete results of tests taken at Tyson Food's Logansport plant are confirmed.

The following directives go into effect under Martin's executive order, which County Commissioner's President Dr. Ralph Anderson confirmed will extend to all of Cass County:

• Only one person per family will be allowed into shopping markets and other essential businesses that remain open.

• All persons are asked to wear a mask covering their nose and mouth upon entering a business. Anderson also said that business owners may prohibit entrance of customers not wearing face masks into their establishments.

• Children under 16 years of age are not allowed into any businesses.

• No more than 2 people per 1,000 square feet of retail space are permitted at one time in an establishment. This number is capped at 125 people for businesses with more than 62,000 square feet of space. If the establishment has less than 5,000 square feet of retail space, up to five customers may be allowed inside at the same time. Anderson noted that businesses with an outside area that has its own payment processing may be considered two businesses for the purpose of calculating the acceptable number of patrons allowed at one time.  

• Drive-thru, curbside pickup and delivery food services will still be allowed to operate.

• A person who intentionally, knowingly or recklessly violates the executive order commits a class B misdemeanor under Indiana code.

• An increased law enforcement presence will monitor and assist in enforcing the orders.

• The elderly and high-risk persons are strongly encouraged to avoid all public gatherings and minimize all travel to the maximum extent possible.

 
 

• All previous order remain in effect.

Logansport Memorial Hospital CEO Perry Gay said that the latest surge has the potential of overwhelming the hospital.

"Our hospital has been preparing for this surge for weeks," Gay said. "However, with this surge in possible cases and the numbers that we are seeing, if we just saw 5-10 percent of those possible cases needing critical care, we would be overwhelmed. Our hospital is not equipped with enough staff or resources to care for numbers like this."

Gay added that some non-COVID-19 patients may need to be sent elsewhere for treatment, should the hospital experience an overwhelming influx of patients.

"As a result, we have worked with other facilities who stand ready to assist ... at this time, individuals with illnesses or injuries other than COVID-19 may be sent or transferred for care to hospitals in our surrounding counties."

It is unclear whether any additional travel restrictions are being put in place.

https://www.pharostribune.com/article_997d5d42-8898-11ea-917b-47f8282283a8.html

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speaking of excess mortality https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch of the FT has lots of new graphs; he comments that its worth particular attention to look at the hardest-hit regions

the by-country example

6BC143DF-452C-44A1-AE4D-3A17B7C7935F.thumb.jpeg.e5735943fdfd4c0348f8ec6d62dae6f1.jpeg

 

when you look at epidemic centers:

6AB5A2D9-9BF6-4B09-A05B-1173BF986ABF.thumb.jpeg.2215b5fd4dd4f7810e207f37828cac05.jpeg

 

lastly this small research triumph about finally tracking down Ecuador’s data would be heartwarming if the topic were not so grim:

 

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5 hours ago, weatherbo said:

...meanwhile  weekend at Biden's playing as scheduled.

Please don't take this politically, but I am curious what you would like for Biden to do. I have seen other people take issue with him, and I am just curious what he could be doing beyond what he is already doing.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Please don't take this politically, but I am curious what you would like for Biden to do. I have seen other people take issue with him, and I am just curious what he could be doing beyond what he is already doing.

My post was mostly aimed at media bias when it comes to reporting on Biden vs Trump, not at Biden directly. That said, Biden could try and muster up some enthusiasm.  That would be a good start.

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1 minute ago, weatherbo said:

My post was mostly aimed at media bias when it comes to reporting on Biden vs Trump, not at Biden directly. That said, Biden could try and muster up some enthusiasm.  That would be a good start.

I mean Biden is on TV all the time, only so much he can do from home in that regard. I get your point though, but that comes with the territory of being president, Trump is seen more which mean his foibles will show up as easier.

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