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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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Yesterdays wind & rain went pretty much to the north west of me yesterday. Only a couple 2 minute downpours.

Crazy times these days bring us some snow.

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yeah rain off and on Monday through literally rest of the week.

Come on man....you might be the winner in our thread with snow on Monday!

The 12z NAM came in colder for even the LSV crew. The 2 inch line is from I -81 to the north & west. The bullseye appears to be near I-80 & I-99.

We are still 2 days out. Lots of time to lock in on the final details.

 

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15 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

NWS State College has mainly rain here so not really buying it.

They seem interested in some snow for many areas of our region...I’d rather be in Williamsport than the southern tier for this event.

I think many of us see some snow. The questions are still for how long & how much accumulates & on what surfaces.

Here is the latest CTP forecast discussion:

“Models show a cold wedge pattern developing to the south of the strong high along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. This pattern will set the stage for a potential late season snowfall across parts of CPA Sunday night into early Monday. The first shot of warm advection precip (rain/snow) should arrive between 00-06Z Monday as mid level shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and sfc low weakens over WV. Expect an uptick in QPF in the 06 to 18Z Monday period as secondary sfc low develops near the VA Tidewater/southern Delmarva region and taps into anomalous PW plume off the NC coast via strengthening east/southeast low level flow. Increasing/heavier precip rates along with wet bulb effects should support sufficient column cooling to trend thermal profiles/ptype toward wet snow across most areas to the northwest of the I-81/78 corridor. Continued to utilize a blend of NBM/WPC for 6hr snowfall with manual adjustments to emphasize elevation dependence. Current trend of precipitation onset and heavier rates overnight/before daybreak favors a small bump in precip totals along with some slippery travel early Monday, especially at higher elevations. Latest snowfall totals remained pretty consistent with previous forecast: max 2-4" across the highest terrain over the interior north central mtns and slushy 0.5-2" across the rest of the Alleghenies (lower amounts in the valleys 1000-1500ft/higher amounts on the ridges 1500-2000ft). Have reintroduced a coating of snow to the Lower Susquehanna, but any accumulation would be limited to grassy surfaces. In general, anticipate less snow accum on paved surfaces which could reduce travel impact to some extent. Non paved and elevated surfaces/grassy areas should see the greatest snow accumulation. As the sfc low deepens and lifts to the northeast off the NJ coast, expect WAA and time of day to eventually transition most ptypes to rain Monday afternoon. Rain/snow mix will still be possible across the north central mtns with little to no additional accum in the PM hours. Precip should end Monday night with dry weather expected into Tuesday.”

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I like the fact that we actually have a cold air mass in place prior to the event. It will be retreating after the precip arrives, but it is a 1040+ High, so that should help the initial snow cause.

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On 3/20/2020 at 10:30 AM, Bubbler86 said:

I personally do not think it is going to get into house invasion issues or highway piracy.  

I guarantee you it's going to come to that. 

 

Jim Bakker said it best: #TheCollapseIsComing. Only he was saying it to scare old people and morons into buying buckets of shit that he calls food. I'm saying it because the collapse is ****ing here. 

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14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ok, the heck with the ICON, I switched my support to the 12z Canadian!

This run gives the snow win to me, @sauss06 , @CarlislePaWx & @canderson

Also, I think it’s catching on, because @Cashtown_Coop is in the LSV bullseye. He always wins with snow totals...!

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Digital snow is nice but I need to see the real thing.   

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12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Also, it would be fitting that our best shot at a decent snow would be the end of March lol

Yes, it would be something it that happened ! Some of the runs a couple of days ago had winter storm warning amounts for many of us.

The 12z Euro just had its best run since 12z yesterday. Maybe we will trend back to a decent event for All of CTP?

 

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol even in the posted nws statement they said 2 to 4 in highest elevations of northern pa.

No one is talking about a Blizzard.

I think many of us would take a few hours of snow in the air & a couple of inches of snow in the grass at this point.

You are in a good spot for this potential.

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21 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Digital snow is nice but I need to see the real thing.   

Yes, I know what you mean.

Hopefully, on Monday morning we all wake up to at least some snow flakes in the air.

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was just going to post the same thing. At least a few inches verbatim.

The Euro is really shifting the next mid week system to the south & east. The 12z run now brings snow to north central & north east PA. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

3/21 - First yard mowing of the season commences now. Holy crap, i feel like the grass grew 6" in the past 2 days! 

I was going to wait, but with all the rain coming this week I may do the same.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No one is talking about a Blizzard.

I think many of us would take a few hours of snow in the air & a couple of inches of snow in the grass at this point.

You are in a good spot for this potential.

I want to thank you dude for staying at it and truly hope we all get some flakes Monday especially you. You called potential awhile ago and looks like at least it will snow some. 

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

3/21 - First yard mowing of the season commences now. Holy crap, i feel like the grass grew 6" in the past 2 days! 

I think I am going to mow after seeing Daxx's comment about not be able to mow next week.  Just hate to mow then snow falls on the grass.  Could damage it. 

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4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

I want to thank you dude for staying at it and truly hope we all get some flakes Monday especially you. You called potential awhile ago and looks like at least it will snow some. 

Thanks man! This might be our last snow chance until November or December, so I am enjoying the tracking.

I hope that we all score at least a coating of snow in the morning even if it gets washed away by the afternoon.

The 18z Euro trended in the right direction for snow chances on Monday. The 2 inch snow line is back down to the I-81 corridor even in the LSV. The I-80 corridor continues to be in the bullseye. 

Hopefully the 0z runs treat us well !

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The 18z EPS improved again over its last few runs. It now has the 2 inch snow line down near the I - 81 corridor even to the LSV. It also brings the 1 inch line down to Rt.30. 

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21 degrees this morning.

To me it looks like the same old pattern, NWS calling for a mix. My biggest snow for the winter was 2.6" most of the other storms mixing events.

I hope the models get one right...Thanks Blizz for the maps.

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38 minutes ago, pawatch said:

21 degrees this morning.

To me it looks like the same old pattern, NWS calling for a mix. My biggest snow for the winter was 2.6" most of the other storms mixing events.

I hope the models get one right...Thanks Blizz for the maps.

No problem! I’m enjoying what could be our final snow track of the season.

I like the fact that current dew points are in the high single digits to low to mid teens across all of CTP this morning. They have been dropping steadily since yesterday. This should help surface temps to crash when the decent precip arrives overnight.

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Well we are pretty much down to the NAM and to a lesser extent the Canadian in the LSV.  Euro lessens the WAA and now takes the surface low up to the Mason Dixon.   Pulling the plug on the hopes and mowing. 

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