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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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On 3/12/2020 at 10:31 AM, Thinksnow18 said:

What is the best comparison is 2009 and the H1N1 virus that mutated and was not prevented from spreading due to its mutation. That seasons flu shot was not effective against it and was not available in the US until that fall some 6 months after the first case. The CDC also listed this as a pandemic as well. It was responsible for over 80000 is deaths and the CDC estimates it might have approached 120k plus. There were a confirmed 60 million cases in the US. I had a co-worker who had that strain and was Ill for about 10 days with the worst symptoms he had ever had. We never budged as a society. We did not panic. We did not isolate. The hysteria in this case is worse than the virus itself. Senior citizens, young children, people with immune disorders, cancer, respiratory ailments etc...have been and will always be the most susceptible to the flu, pneumonia and other viruses. Panicking about this in the manner we have only shows how knee jerk reaction we have become in this world. The economy world wide will see great deficits from this in the short and long term. All because we are trying to stop a virus not all that much different than the viruses before it. 

You are right about the H1N1 swine flu outbreak. In fact, by the time an inoculation was ready, the virus had spent itself and was in decline. Many nations that had signed up for the vaccine didn't want the quantity they were committed to.

However, based on currently available data, covid-19 is much more highly transmissible w/ R0 value thought to be ~2.5...meaning every infected person is spreading it to 2.5 others on avg. That very high. H1N1 was 1.5-1.8 or so, with less severe symptoms on average.  Infection growth in China and Italy followed geometric growth patterns for R of 2.5 or so until (in China anyway), they instituted radical lockdowns of up to 400 million people. The fact that asymptomatic people can transmit COVID-19 makes it especially difficult to contain. SARS was containable as only actively symptomatic people were infectious to others. So it was easier to identify and isolate these people and stanch the infection growth.  Again, not so with covid-19.

Covid-19 also appears to have a 3-5% mortality rate (far higher than H1N1 which was sub 1%). While people <30 appear to be less susceptible to severe effects... not so for 50+ cohort. So the actual mortality rate for 50+ population is far higher as that's where all the deaths are (and more severe illnesses).  SARS actually had an 8-10% mortality rate among the elderly population that got infected, from what I've read.  Covid-19 may show similar results, or worse if health care systems get overwhelmed. 

To illustrate, if 100 million get infected (projections are higher), at an optimistic 2% mortality rate, that's 2 million deaths. If the elderly population infected is say, 25% of total and they take all deaths, that's (2,000,000/25,000,000)*100 = 8% rate for that cohort.

So I don't get why there's an inclination to trivialize things "out there." Well, actually I do get it but I'm not lapsing into politics here.

Long live the Gen Zoomers! 

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3 hours ago, Syrmax said:

You are right about the H1N1 swine flu outbreak. In fact, by the time an inoculation was ready, the virus had spent itself and was in decline. Many nations that had signed up for the vaccine didn't want the quantity they were committed to.

However, based on currently available data, covid-19 is much more highly transmissible w/ R0 value thought to be ~2.5...meaning every infected person is spreading it to 2.5 others on avg. That very high. H1N1 was 1.5-1.8 or so, with less severe symptoms on average.  Infection growth in China and Italy followed geometric growth patterns for R of 2.5 or so until (in China anyway), they instituted radical lockdowns of up to 400 million people. The fact that asymptomatic people can transmit COVID-19 makes it especially difficult to contain. SARS was containable as only actively symptomatic people were infectious to others. So it was easier to identify and isolate these people and stanch the infection growth.  Again, not so with covid-19.

Covid-19 also appears to have a 3-5% mortality rate (far higher than H1N1 which was sub 1%). While people <30 appear to be less susceptible to severe effects... not so for 50+ cohort. So the actual mortality rate for 50+ population is far higher as that's where all the deaths are (and more severe illnesses).  SARS actually had an 8-10% mortality rate among the elderly population that got infected, from what I've read.  Covid-19 may show similar results, or worse if health care systems get overwhelmed. 

To illustrate, if 100 million get infected (projections are higher), at an optimistic 2% mortality rate, that's 2 million deaths. If the elderly population infected is say, 25% of total and they take all deaths, that's (2,000,000/25,000,000)*100 = 8% rate for that cohort.

So I don't get why there's an inclination to trivialize things "out there." Well, actually I do get it but I'm not lapsing into politics here.

Long live the Gen Zoomers! 

That's the first I've heard of 50 and above...so far I've read 60 and above age group but that is splitting hairs. What you wrote is very alarming on how the virus can be transmitted to others if your asympotmatic or not. 

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

If we could get the timing right on one of these trans continental LP’s we could actually get a snow storm. 

In the past these lows use to produce. Everything has gone wrong this winter. 

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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We have had terrible timing this year as the next system gets obliterated by 1048 HP diving down..

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_1.png

Yeah, that high is messing everything up. We would be looking at a region wide WSW event without it.

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12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We cancelled our golf trip to Orlando at end of March, Disney resorts shutdown. They are refunding the reservation, right off. Delta giving a credit for future travel. 

Combined with my April italy trip cancellation, I'll have a lot of airfare credit to fly all over the place.;)

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22 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

We cancelled our golf trip to Orlando at end of March, Disney resorts shutdown. They are refunding the reservation, right off. Delta giving a credit for future travel. 

Combined with my April italy trip cancellation, I'll have a lot of airfare credit to fly all over the place.;)

I'm currently on hold with United Airlines for 2 hours. Chase travel portal customer service is 12-18 hour wait time. I cannot do anything online. This is brutal....

I was thinking of just disputing it with Chase and getting back all of my money for all my reservations. I am covered with a $10k trip insurance policy through the chase freedom sapphire card. What would you recommend?

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm currently on hold with United Airlines for 2 hours. Chase travel portal customer service is 12-18 hour wait time. I cannot do anything online. This is brutal....

I was thinking of just disputing it with Chase and getting back all of my money for all my reservations. I am covered with a $10k trip insurance policy through the chase freedom sapphire card. What would you recommend?

My co-worker's brother was on hold with US Air for SEVEN HOURS on Thursday. Only option to cancel...

This week has definitely been an adjustment for everybody...

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

My co-worker's brother was on hold with US Air for SEVEN HOURS on Thursday. Only option to cancel...

This week has definitely been an adjustment for everybody...

Chase has a 10-18 hour hold time. I asked for a call back instead...

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, that high is messing everything up. We would be looking at a region wide WSW event without it.

The one time we don’t need a HP.....

Late month is a time of great interest. Things lining up nicely I think. A tiny bit late climatologically but don’t forget, 27 years ago today we saw 2 feet down to Georgia- so don’t rule anything out. We never got a blockbuster this year. We are due!!!

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm currently on hold with United Airlines for 2 hours. Chase travel portal customer service is 12-18 hour wait time. I cannot do anything online. This is brutal....

I was thinking of just disputing it with Chase and getting back all of my money for all my reservations. I am covered with a $10k trip insurance policy through the chase freedom sapphire card. What would you recommend?

If you got the trip insurance (smart!) I’d go that route. I’d be shocked if they gave you any trouble. Good luck and sorry. Look at it as a delay. 

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Darn, was just a matter of time I guess. Might see non-essential facility closures really start ramping up now in WNY.  

Also...a friend of my dad’s at a retirement community in Ft Meyer’s FL was infected and passed away today.  Surreal...

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Schools are closing here in Onondaga County starting this Friday. Students are not required to come during this week though. It is an open plan for parents to find services for their kids, while not forcing students to go to school. I think it is a very good plan. I know with the school I work at, I am now required to start posting lessons in Google Classroom. I just hope that no cases pop up in the county this week! All 30 some people tested so far have had negative results. But who knows, it may very well have arrived here over the past two weeks.

Things are moving so quickly!

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I dont think we've seen any snow so far so this may be the first March that we go without even a snow shower, watch, now that would be something that I've never seen before, up here anyway! That's what I'm rooting for and we dont need another mud season as we've had 3 already this Winter, if ya wanna call what we just had Winter, Yuck!

But this could also be one of those stupid yrs where we can see snow all the way into May, lol, cause this is when we'll see everything line up perfectly, indices wise as well, watch, and we'll have a super below normal April into May and I'll start to bang my head up against the wall if it starts to snow in April, lol!

Onondaga is basically shut down except County, State and Federal offices as my girl works for the Health Department in the Civic Center and they still have wrk next week so far but that may change if we see any +'s start to pop up. I cant see how it wouldn't, but I sure as hell hope I'm dead wrong.

Shit, the whole Country of N Korea didnt have one confirmed case while S Korea had close to 7000 so that's bizarre. My first Pandemic, and hopefully my last!!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:



Shit, the whole Country of N Korea didnt have one confirmed case while S Korea had close to 7000 so that's bizarre. My first Pandemic, and hopefully my last!!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah this would be the fake news.....

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12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Maybe Coronavirus will avoid the Syracuse area just like all the snowstorms did....Does it work that way?

:P

 

If it does then you might be the anti everything...

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15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

If it does then you might be the anti everything...

Shhhhhh...I don't want to be hooked up to a bajillion testtubes and wires as they try to create a vaccine off me...........

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In the sports world, new CBA approved!! By only 60 votes lol 

This comes with 1 more regular season game and 2 additional playoff teams...This also will increase salary cap over the next 4 years..

Carry on lol

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Well luckily I have been slowly stock piling because the stores are destroyed lol

I wonder how long this will last..

Butcher shops with no meat, wtf lol

I'm more worried about the panic going on than the actual virus..

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