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BuffaloWeather

Feb 26-29 Synoptic/LES

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52 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

not holding my breath for this to happen...


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight, lake effect off both lakes will continue through the night as the area of low pressure that is producing the cyclonic flow over the area slowly tracks east across Quebec. The trough associated with the vertically stacked low will provide synoptic moisture to the region through the night. With the approaching trough axis synoptic instability will also increase some as well. As the trough axis approaches, equilibrium heights will increase close to 7.5k ft off of Lake Erie and briefly approaching 10k ft off of Lake Ontario. Behind the trough will be a slight increase in cold air advection with 850H temps cooling a few more degrees for WNY to around -18C and to around -20C for the North Country. Off of Lake Erie, the northern edge of the snowband coming off the lake earlier in the day may make it as far north as the Buffalo Metro area and the Northtowns ahead of the approaching trough and with a 250-260 degree wind. Winds will be much lighter tonight than experienced in the earlier stages of this storm, but areas of blowing snow will still be possible.

Off Erie band is getting stronger and moving a bit north. Getting some flakes here at work. 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20200228.1338.024ani.gif

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1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

As a former area resident, I suggest taking Route 11 the whole way, or at least get off I81 before you get into the heavy snow.  I think there’s a decent chance of I81 turning into a dangerous parking lot.  On Route 11 you can turn around or pull into a parking lot at any time.  On I81 you are stuck until you get to the next exit which could be hours away in this type of weather.  Keep your fuel tank full along with water, snacks, and blankets inside the car. 

Agree with that 100%

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Well one more day here in Redfield.  We had 10” yesterday.  May ride north a bit today and see what’s happening.  Hoping things drop south to give us another 6” at least.  Heading out early tomorrow.

 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It was one hell of a drive but I made it to Watertown. Absolute obliteration here. SN++

That should be a good spot most of the day as winds even go further SW this afternoon ahead of the front. 

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I so want to go to my camp this weekend in Old Forge.  They will have 20 before this ends.  Winter has suddenly appeared there with over 50 inches this month.

My wife will change the locks if I go.  

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That should be a good spot most of the day as winds even go further SW this afternoon ahead of the front. 

Yeah, will probably stay through the day before heading back south for the night. I love LES :wub:

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Nice video! Thanks

Looks like that band will peter out before it can cause any damage south. What a bust this whole thing was (unless you lived on the Tug). Roc and BUF will likely end with little to nothing after BUF had both in 12-18” ranges just prior to the ‘storm’. BUF should NEVER paint more than what the consensus model total is. I mean, where were they getting those totals? 
You do a blizzard warning for a LOCK. For a storm that will meet the public’s expectations of what a blizzard is over a broad population area. Not for the toothless wonders up in their cabins in no mans land (I’m jealous of them). 

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

My dad did Army Reserve summer camp in the Watertown area. Usually a late August early September Two week period. I can’t remember exactly middle to late 50’s he told us that local weather folk back then told the post to get its shovels ready. I don’t believe the need materialized but it must have been a potent late summer cold air mass. He was stationed up there for weekend periods during the cold season. I remember him telling us some intense snowfall stories. Wonderful video and memories, thank you. As always .....

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What was the snow depth between Turin and Lowville prior to the storm? Like 1-2ft depending on elevation?  Was thinking of doing some snowshoe/snowboarding on Sunday.  I wish that band was sitting about 10-20 miles south.  I think they've picked up about 20" so far including the synoptic event as snow ridge reported 18" total at 7am and the place I'm eyeing is 5 miles north.  Even more would be great.  If I do end up going I will setup my camera and tripod and get some good solo powder shots on video.  

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10 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

What was the snow depth between Turin and Lowville prior to the storm? Like 1-2ft depending on elevation?  Was thinking of doing some snowshoe/snowboarding on Sunday.  I wish that band was sitting about 10-20 miles south.  I think they've picked up about 20" so far including the synoptic event as snow ridge reported 18" total at 7am and the place I'm eyeing is 5 miles north.  Even more would be great.  If I do end up going I will setup my camera and tripod and get some good solo powder shots on video.  

You pretty much nailed everything.  Much less down along Rte 12.  Much more up on the hill.  It looks like a solid 18”+ of new snow on the hill through Friday morning. 

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A lot of negatives to the bands off Erie today. Diurnal influences, shear, wind speeds, and dry air. Look for most of those issues too lessen throughout the afternoon. Should get a stronger band especially tonight, going to be a close call around here. Have had light snow the majority of the day here. 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20200228.1750.024ani.gif

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The models seem to be keying in on a WNW lake effect event Saturday into early Sunday. I sure hope they're right. The fact that the RGEM is showing it makes me more optimistic, as I feel it is one of the best with LES.

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I think I saw a few flakes float by the past couple days, Wow, talk about busts, lol, and they still say 8" for the area, just nuts!

Oswego county needs to be split in half and let KBGM have the Southern half, lol!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

The models seem to be keying in on a WNW lake effect event Saturday into early Sunday. I sure hope they're right. The fact that the RGEM is showing it makes me more optimistic, as I feel it is one of the best with LES.

Interesting to see how far North the main band off L.O. has moved. I thought it was supposed to be working it's way south...Congrats Thousand Islands!

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