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NorthArlington101

02/21/20 Snow Potential

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Euro joins rest of guidance with upping snow totals down south   Even gets stray flakes into Md . Nams ftw lol

 

 

 

That's dirty talk. I'm right on the water so I'm worried any NE or N wind can turn me over to rain. I need W or NW. 

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2 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

You realize the NAMS still show 7+ and in the case of 12k, a foot right? Let’s see what happens but I wouldn’t call it a win overall. 

Sure do and the trend has been obvious.  The globals esp the Euro was way too dry and suppressed even 36 hrs ago . Even the Gfs was too dry.  Timing looks good.  Qpf looks juicy . Good banding looks to develope.  Surface 30-34 should be easily overcome imo. I fully expect a large area of 3-6" with lollies of 8" maybe 10". But hey..I'm just tracking from afar for fun. 

It is February after all. If it was March I'd side with more 1-3" amounts. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Sure do and the trend has been obvious.  The globals esp the Euro was way too dry and suppressed even 36 hrs ago . Even the Gfs was too dry.  Timing looks good.  Qpf looks juicy . Good banding looks to develope.  Surface 30-34 should be easily overcome imo. I fully expect a large area of 3-6" with lollies of 8" maybe 10". But hey..I'm just tracking from afar for fun. 

I can’t disagree more. It’s a weak system. And the temps are marginal. A general 1-4” is the best call and that’s what the NWS and most outlets are going with. Maybe if EVERYTHING goes right a few lucky spots get 6” but you’re basing everything on the NAM 

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29 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I can’t disagree more. It’s a weak system. And the temps are marginal. A general 1-4” is the best call and that’s what the NWS and most outlets are going with. Maybe if EVERYTHING goes right a few lucky spots get 6” but you’re basing everything on the NAM 

Listen.. I'm using all guidance man . But Nams sniffed this one out . It's my opinion.  You are entitled to yours . I actually think se Va could end up with a better outcome looking at latest meso guidance.  

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Latest 3k even more impressive with moisture transport at 700mb .
 
 
nam-nest-conus-east-rh700-2254000.thumb.png.b42d044a5c4214bb0bf19140f9ad090c.png

The frontogen maps really suggest there should be banding further north.... will it actually happen? Idk. I’m expecting a decent last second north jump either way.
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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


The frontogen maps really suggest there should be banding further north.... will it actually happen? Idk. I’m expecting a decent last second north jump either way.

Yea. I noticed some areas of decent  700mb frontogen was up near DC even.

If you noticed... the 18z Euro and 0z Nams had a more ne component to qpf distribution as you went from se Va towards OC even S. DE . I think Se Va does well in the end 

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea. I noticed some areas of decent  700mb frontogen was up near DC even.

If you noticed... the 18z Euro and 0z Nams had a more ne component to qpf distribution as you went from se Va towards OC even S. DE . I think Se Va does well in the end 

850 mb frontogen really jumped up this run on the 3k in E. NC   ...I'm sure that's not a coincidence that 1 hour snowfall rates are 1.5 inch + in spots there . Also 1" + in SE  VA . 

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18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

850 mb frontogen really jumped up this run on the 3k in E. NC   ...I'm sure that's not a coincidence that 1 hour snowfall rates are 1.5 inch + in spots there . Also 1" + in SE  VA . 

From Met ILMross in SE Forum...he's thinking along the same lines

imageproxy.jpeg.jpg

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WSWs now up for SE VA and NE NC.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ096-097-201645-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Bertie-Chowan-
Perquimans-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Corapeake,
Elizabeth City, Horseshoe, Lilly, Sharon, Quitsna, Edenhouse,
Merry Hill, Midway, Windsor, Cape Colony, Edenton, Hancock,
Macedonia, Mavaton, Saint Johns, Valhalla, Jacocks, Woodville,
Chuckatuck, Cleopus, Crittenden, Deanes, Downtown Suffolk,
Driver, Elwood, Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport,
Deep Creek, Fentress, Great Bridge, and Greenbrier
336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to snow. Snow may be heavy
  at times tonight. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.
  Locally higher amounts are possible. Wind gusst up to 30 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North
  Carolina.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

NCZ017-VAZ087>090-092-093-095-098-523>525-201645-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/
Western Currituck-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Virginia Beach-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Knotts Island, Emporia, Wakefield,
Barham, Gwaltney Corner, Bacons Castle, Chippokes State Park,
Hog Island Game Reserve, Poolesville, Booth Fork, Williamsburg,
Franklin, Carrsville, Lees Mill, Benns Church, Bethel Church,
Carrollton, Lawson, Longview, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent,
Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View,
Wards Corner, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck,
Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Grafton, Tabb,
Beaconsdale, Denbigh, Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall,
Menchville, Newport News, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill,
Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB
336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to all snow. Snow may be
  moderate to heavy at times this evening. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North
  Carolina.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from
northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight.
Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals
across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off
Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day.

NCZ046-081-202115-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Tyrrell-Mainland Hyde-
Including the cities of Columbia, Gum Neck, Engelhard, Fairfield,
Ponzer, Scranton, and Swanquarter
402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Tyrrell and Mainland Hyde Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from
northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight.
Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals
across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off
Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day.

NCZ029-044-045-079-080-091-193-202115-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200220T2100Z-200221T1500Z/
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Greene-Beaufort-Lenoir-Northern Craven-
Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City,
Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland,
Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Snow Hill, Hookerton, Walstonburg,
Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath, Aurora, Kinston,
La Grange, Pink Hill, Vanceboro, Ernul, Dover, and Cove City
402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches.

* WHERE...Martin, Pitt, Washington, Greene, Beaufort, Lenoir and
  Northern Craven Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from
northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight.
Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals
across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off
Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day.

NCZ047-202115-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WW.Y.0001.200221T0500Z-200221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1500Z/
Mainland Dare-
Including the cities of Manns Harbor, Stumpy Point, and East Lake
402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Mainland Dare County.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
340 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...Accumulating snow is likely across much of central North
Carolina today and tonight...

.Precipitation will overspread the area from the southwest early
today. While the precipitation will initially be all rain, a
transition to a wintry mix or a mix of rain and snow is expected
during the afternoon. A transition to all snow from north to south
is expected thereafter.

NCZ009>011-026>028-043-078-202045-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.200220T1500Z-200221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0001.200220T1500Z-200221T1200Z/
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-
Including the cities of Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina,
Roanoke Rapids, Enfield, Scotland Neck, Louisburg, Franklinton,
Nashville, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville,
Wilson, and Goldsboro
340 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Northern and Central Coastal Plain counties of North
  Carolina.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday.


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Looking at the latest Mesos (3K, 12K Nams) we are seeing slightly less dig from the shortwave. This is resulting less of a southerly component to the winds at 700 mbs and up which is what is driving the moisture over the colder air. You can see the results if you look at the FGEN maps as that has weakened. Hence we see a contraction southward of the precip as well as a reduction on snow totals. One thing to keep an eye on is to see how much dig we do in fact see with the SW at both 700 mbs and 500 mbs. More dig = more snow and farther north.

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So tempting to go to my family's beach place on the eastern shore just to see snow.  Its in northampton co.  They might have 5 plows total

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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the latest Mesos (3K, 12K Nams) we are seeing slightly less dig from the shortwave. This is resulting less of a southerly component to the winds at 700 mbs and up which is what is driving the moisture over the colder air. You can see the results if you look at the FGEN maps as that has weakened. Hence we see a contraction southward of the precip as well as a reduction on snow totals. One thing to keep an eye on is to see how much dig we do in fact see with the SW at both 700 mbs and 500 mbs. More dig = more snow and farther north.

6z Euro probably has many down there hitting the panic button...or tossing it lol.

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Since this thread was initiated in hopes that the storm would come north and affect C-ville and north, it seems only appropriate (after my comment a couple of days ago) to post this. :lol:

1112A788-DA44-445C-A904-5CB74F0707A4.thumb.jpeg.42f54a45c6892587190c52e80a06a1df.jpeg

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Since this thread was initiated in hopes that the storm would come north and affect C-ville and north, it seems only appropriate (after my comment a couple of days ago) to post this. :lol:
1112A788-DA44-445C-A904-5CB74F0707A4.thumb.jpeg.42f54a45c6892587190c52e80a06a1df.jpeg

don’t bury her until she’s dead. If I see an hour or so of snow I’m satisfied.

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52 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@losetoa6

Looks like you made a good call with your 3 to 6 with lollies of 8. Nws is going in that direction.

It's not over  yet :ph34r: . If only Scotty could beam me down there lol . 

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While the main synoptic precip shield is obviously going to be way south of here, there are hints in several of the hi-res runs for a band of snow showers moving southeast across the DC metro area this evening.     

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4 hours ago, high risk said:

While the main synoptic precip shield is obviously going to be way south of here, there are hints in several of the hi-res runs for a band of snow showers moving southeast across the DC metro area this evening.     

Just enough to fail at getting a record fail for the month...lol

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Parts of Se Va really starting to look good for nice hit . Kind of thought that yesterday but latest guidance really looks solid for them . I thought @C.A.P.E.would be chasing.  Even S. OC should get some light snow .

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Parts of Se Va really starting to look good for nice hit . Kind of thought that yesterday but latest guidance really looks solid for them . I thought @C.A.P.E.would be chasing.  Even S. OC should get some light snow .

Work wont allow it. And I only chase big dogs. :weenie:

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

This season 6" is a big dog.  It's all relative 

I would chase that, but I cant this time.

I thought you were saying chase to OC, lol. For a dusting? Nah.

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