• Member Statistics

    16,116
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Irish
    Newest Member
    Irish
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
donsutherland1

2020 Temperatures

Recommended Posts

Here’s a question to ponder.  How does the Coronavirus affect climate change?  The burning of fossil fuels has been dramatically cut since January till today.  How will this affect short term weather patterns over the next year or two?  Thoughts? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No obvious impact thus far. The CO2 data shows no diminution at all thus far from the current record levels  See  .https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/24/2020 at 10:38 AM, etudiant said:

No obvious impact thus far. The CO2 data shows no diminution at all thus far from the current record levels  See  .https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

I thought there was a report that there was a 6% reduction?  Still just a drop in the bucket.  Of more interest is this:

Some good news coming out of all this (after being condemned by the UN) is both China and Vietnam are starting to close down those unsanitary wet markets.  Axios and PBS interviewed world renowned biologist Sir David Attenborough and he talked about the connections between biodiversity, pandemics and climate change and how poaching of elephants and other imported animals from Africa to Asia impacts deforestation (because these animals move seeds from one place to another in the African forests).  He is now 93 yrs old and he said that when he was growing up in the 30s, about 67% of the planet was wilderness, which was down to about 50% during the 90s, and now is down to only 25%.  These forests are integral because they act as carbon sinks.  He also mentioned that pandemics are becoming more common because of people cutting down more forests and venturing into areas where exotic animals live and coming into contact with new viruses.  Also mentioned was the release of once dormant microbes from under melting sea ice in Siberia.  He said that he thinks this pandemic will teach us lessons about how quick changes need to be made to thwart the oncoming climate crisis.  He also mentioned that giving urban areas access to more nutritious food is vitally important (less processed food, less sugar, etc-- sugary food and fast food can become addictive because of the release of dopamine and has been implicated in the quick rise of diabetes type 2, obesity and high blood pressure in young people, which, along with asthma from air pollution, have been shown to be major pre-existing conditions involved in covid19 deaths)  and reducing air pollution by continuing the switch to electric vehicles (no NO2 emission.)

Update on the death figures- Johns Hopkins Hospital thinks that the number of people who have died from this virus in the US might be double the reported figures, because the number of people who have died at home has not been reported.  The estimate of 25% infection rate in NYC may also be an underestimate.  Research out of California indicates that if we loosen restrictions over the summer, the infection rate will become higher than it ever was by August.  They say if we keep the restrictions as they are now, the infection rate will rise to above 30% but if we loosen restrictions the infection rate will be around 95% in August.

The UK being slow to close things down, looks like PM Boris Johnson has changed his tune from being cavalier to much more cautious about opening things back up now that he's been hospitalized for the infection himself and is a newly minted father.  The nations that shut down fastest did the best (like New Zealand, Denmark, Norway, Germany, South Korea, Finland, Iceland, etc.)

The most likely scenario and the one which China and Vietnam are now starting to shut down are the unsanitary wet markets and the importation of exotic mammals with exotic viruses that humans haven't come into close contact with before.  60 Minutes did a great piece on this last Sunday and China has started to shut them down after the UN singled them out these wet markets as a source for exotic viruses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That April 2020 update from UAH brings their trend up one notch to +0.14C/decade now. For comparison Berkeley Earth is +0.19C/decade, RSS is +0.21C/decade, and ERA is +0.19C/decade over the same time period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GISS at record levels for April edging 2016. Keeps a record possible this year; depends on ENSO and spring/summer fall off.

2015-2020line.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BillT said:

why was that period cherry picked to use as the baseline?    because it was a cooler period?

That's what the GISS group wanted to do. Other groups use different baselines. All it does is to make a baseline from which the anomalies are computed. You can pick any baseline you want. It can be an entirely arbitrary decision. It does not change the ranking of the years, the warming trend, or the structure of the graph chubbs posted.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

MAY 2020  +0.54 

 

UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2020_v6.jpg

Draw a line through the middle and the direction is obvious and for the last few years seems to be accelerating. To use the words of an often maligned, sometimes controversial Professional Meteorologist and part time Philosopher. “ The Trend Is Your Friend”. As always ....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, rclab said:

Draw a line through the middle and the direction is obvious and for the last few years seems to be accelerating. To use the words of an often maligned, sometimes controversial Professional Meteorologist and part time Philosopher. “ The Trend Is Your Friend”. As always ....

yes - and there was in increase from April to May, despite all of the cold records set

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NCEP/NCAR 2mT reanalysis was -0.08C from April to May. UAH's TLT product doesn't always move in tandem with the surface temperature. In fact, it often moves in the opposite direction.

BTW...I just recently learned that UAH's TLT product is actually derived from their MT, TP, and LS products. Specifically the weighting is LT = 1.538*MT + -0.548*TP + 0.01*LS. I've mentioned this before, but I wonder how much the stratospheric cooling is contaminating their TLT product.

https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/APJAS-2016-UAH-Version-6-Global-Satellite-Temperature-Products-for-blog-post.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trend is not showing any indication of deceleration, rather the opposite. That suggests 2+ *C is already baked in.

Indicates the 2060 global temperature will be 3-4*C above that of the 1970s.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/17/2020 at 7:29 PM, etudiant said:

The trend is not showing any indication of deceleration, rather the opposite. That suggests 2+ *C is already baked in.

Indicates the 2060 global temperature will be 3-4*C above that of the 1970s.

indeed, even with massive fossil fuel reductions which I believe we will see in this decade, it simply will not be enough and people will be migrating away from the coasts....with the melt offs occurring over both poles.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Copernicus just released the September 2020 report based off the ERA reanalysis.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2020

It is the warmest September on record.

This brings the warming trend since 1979 up to +0.1910C/decade +- 0.005. In the last 24 months the trend has increased by 0.01C/decade.

Using the baseline defined in the IPCC Global Warming of 1.5C report and taking the average of the last 12 months from ERA the warming since the industrial revolution is now 1.3C. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Copernicus just released the September 2020 report based off the ERA reanalysis.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2020

It is the warmest September on record.

This brings the warming trend since 1979 up to +0.1910C/decade +- 0.005. In the last 24 months the trend has increased by 0.01C/decade.

Using the baseline defined in the IPCC Global Warming of 1.5C report and taking the average of the last 12 months from ERA the warming since the industrial revolution is now 1.3C. 

Looks like we’re gonna blow by that 1.5C limit soon.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

September had a global monthly anomaly of +1.00 degrees C on the GISS dataset. That smashed the record warm September monthly anomaly of +0.93 degrees C, which was set just last year.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/14/2020 at 10:47 PM, donsutherland1 said:

September had a global monthly anomaly of +1.00 degrees C on the GISS dataset. That smashed the record warm September monthly anomaly of +0.93 degrees C, which was set just last year.

Top 7 warmest Septembers were all in the last 7 years!

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/7/2020 at 11:12 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Nope. Enjoy your government. 

Hmm...maybe you're seeing something I'm not or perhaps your objection was regarding the method as opposed to the results but GISTEMP (which the Brown and Caldeira method is based) stands a reasonable chance of beating out 2016 still. We don't have the October value in yet but data from reanalysis leads me to believe that it could be elevated like the September value. And so far preliminary data for November is even warmer than October. Despite the La Nina I don't think we can confidently eliminate 2020 as being the warmest on the GISTEMP record yet. In fact, I'd say the odds are about 50/50 right now. Dr. Huasfather's analysis gives it an even higher 83% chance.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will say that GISTEMP came in at +0.90C for October which is 0.09C cooler than September. This lowers the odds of 2020 being the warmest. It's probably below 50% now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I will say that GISTEMP came in at +0.90C for October which is 0.09C cooler than September. This lowers the odds of 2020 being the warmest. It's probably below 50% now.

GISS comparison through October below. Going to be a close race right to the wire despite ENSO being  less favorable for warmth this year. 

gissrace.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NCAR reanalysis is running warm too. In fact as of the 18th it is warmer than both Oct and Sep. It could be a photo finish on whether 2020 beats out 2016 on the GISTEMP record even despite the ongoing La Nina.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.