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donsutherland1

2020 Temperatures

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From Copernicus:

Global temperatures were substantially above average in January 2020. The month was:

 - 0.77°C warmer than the average January from 1981-2010, becoming by a narrow margin the warmest January in this data record;    

- warmer by 0.03°C than January 2016, which was previously the warmest January;    

- close to 0.2°C warmer than January 2017, which is now the third warmest January;    

- exceeded in anomalous warmth only by February and March 2016.

European-average temperature anomalies are generally larger and more variable than global anomalies, especially in winter, when they can change by several degrees from one month to the next. The European-average temperature for January 2020 was particularly high. The month was:

- 3.1°C warmer than the average January in the period 1981-2010;    

-warmer than any other January in this data record, by about 0.2ºC in the case of January 2007, the previous warmest January.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2020

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NOAA also reported that January 2020 was the warmest January on record globally.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202001

Almost 55 years ago PF Sloans “Eve Of Destruction” was recorded and released. Today, with an appropriate retooling of the lyrics, it could well serve as the background for the report Don kindly posted. As always .....

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1 hour ago, rclab said:

Almost 55 years ago PF Sloans “Eve Of Destruction” was recorded and released. Today, with an appropriate retooling of the lyrics, it could well serve as the background for the report Don kindly posted. As always .....

Sadly, Don, the one lyric that could remain unchanged is “But you tell me over and over and over again my friend, Ah you don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction” As always ...

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On GISS, January 2020 was the warmest January on record globally. The temperature anomaly was +1.18°C, which was narrowly above the previous record of +1.17°C from 2016.

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I am not sure if you saw my recent post about the recent Iceland low pressure. There have been several strong low pressures have been in the Iceland region this winter. Seemingly, no matter what happens, Europe continues to get warmer air masses. I have heard that January 2020 was tied for the warmest January on record. (Source: Brian Brettscheider/ Climatologist49 on twitter.) I have barely seen any TropicalTidbits maps where the surface temperature was below normal in eastern Europe.

ijfFOvI.gif

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On 2/17/2020 at 6:58 PM, Chinook said:

I am not sure if you saw my recent post about the recent Iceland low pressure. There have been several strong low pressures have been in the Iceland region this winter. Seemingly, no matter what happens, Europe continues to get warmer air masses. I have heard that January 2020 was tied for the warmest January on record. (Source: Brian Brettscheider/ Climatologist49 on twitter.) I have barely seen any TropicalTidbits maps where the surface temperature was below normal in eastern Europe.

ijfFOvI.gif

February is right up there too

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If the rate of warming since 1980 continues, then we are on track for +1.5 C of warming around 2035.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If the rate of warming since 1980 continues, then we are on track for +1.5 C of warming around 2035.

 

Unfortunately, we have been running above the trend-line used for the prediction the past 4 or 5 years.

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5 hours ago, blizzard1024 said:

UAH Temperatures really warm February! 

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

 

.+76C February 2020 and no major El Nino. Wow. 

I was not expecting that. The average ONI over the last 3 and 6 months is only 0.5 and 0.3 respectively.

Somewhat interesting...the UAH stratosphere temperature spiked up this month. This is only the 3rd time a spike has occurred. The other two were from El Chichon and Pinatubo. 

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5 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I was not expecting that. The average ONI over the last 3 and 6 months is only 0.5 and 0.3 respectively.

Somewhat interesting...the UAH stratosphere temperature spiked up this month. This is only the 3rd time a spike has occurred. The other two were from El Chichon and Pinatubo. 

see https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/03/australia-bushfire-smoke-now-warming-the-lower-stratosphere/    This might explain this.  wow....that's a lot of smoke! 

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Hmm...Dr. Spencer is suggesting the smoke warmed both the troposphere and stratosphere. Typically aerosols cool the troposhere and warm the stratosphere. This is an unusual event in that the spike up is observed in both layers. I'm a bit skeptical of his smoke causing radiation induced warming (aka greenhouse effect) claim, but I'm open to hearing what evidence he presents. The thing is that the February troposphere anomaly is primarily the result of warming in the NH. My first thought is that the record +AO may be partly to blame with the spike.   

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2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Hmm...Dr. Spencer is suggesting the smoke warmed both the troposphere and stratosphere. Typically aerosols cool the troposhere and warm the stratosphere. This is an unusual event in that the spike up is observed in both layers. I'm a bit skeptical of his smoke causing radiation induced warming (aka greenhouse effect) claim, but I'm open to hearing what evidence he presents. The thing is that the February troposphere anomaly is primarily the result of warming in the NH. My first thought is that the record +AO may be partly to blame with the spike.   

Could it be the Taal Volcano for the stratosphere?  It wasn't anything like Pintatubo but it could have some smaller effect. 

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1 hour ago, blizzard1024 said:

Could it be the Taal Volcano for the stratosphere?  It wasn't anything like Pintatubo but it could have some smaller effect. 

Maybe. I was watching aerosol optical depths closely after that eruption and while there was a lot tephra lofted into the troposphere it didn't appear as if much sulphate aerosols made it into the stratosphere. I think the Australia wildfire smoke is a better hypothesis at this point.

In regards to the troposphere...volcanoes typically cool this layer. I don't know of a case where warming resulted from an eruption. And I'm not understanding the link with smoke either. I thought smoke was more effective at blocking incoming shortwave radiation than it was at trapping outgoing longwave radiation.

 

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8 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Maybe. I was watching aerosol optical depths closely after that eruption and while there was a lot tephra lofted into the troposphere it didn't appear as if much sulphate aerosols made it into the stratosphere. I think the Australia wildfire smoke is a better hypothesis at this point.

In regards to the troposphere...volcanoes typically cool this layer. I don't know of a case where warming resulted from an eruption. And I'm not understanding the link with smoke either. I thought smoke was more effective at blocking incoming shortwave radiation than it was at trapping outgoing longwave radiation.

 

Will need to see more evidence re; smoke/volcano. Spencer is missing the two obvious factors for UAH warmth: GHG and improved satellites with no diurnal drift. Evidence for the last point is the UAH trace - the period after the 2016 nino is much warmer relative to the super nino peak than the period after the 1998 nino. What happened in 1998? the MSU to AMSU transition. Scientists still don't know which satellite was right NOAA-14 or NOAA-15. UAH picked the colder satellite, of course, which looks like the wrong choice when compared against other series. Meanwhile per the article below, recent satellites have essentially no diurnal drift, with very stable performance for climate detection.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/10/eaau0049.full

 

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On 3/4/2020 at 8:14 AM, bluewave said:

If the rate of warming since 1980 continues, then we are on track for +1.5 C of warming around 2035.

 

thats the limit set by the Paris agreement right?  How warm would we be by 2050 even if we achieve net carbon neutral by then?

 

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On 3/5/2020 at 6:33 AM, chubbs said:

Will need to see more evidence re; smoke/volcano. Spencer is missing the two obvious factors for UAH warmth: GHG and improved satellites with no diurnal drift. Evidence for the last point is the UAH trace - the period after the 2016 nino is much warmer relative to the super nino peak than the period after the 1998 nino. What happened in 1998? the MSU to AMSU transition. Scientists still don't know which satellite was right NOAA-14 or NOAA-15. UAH picked the colder satellite, of course, which looks like the wrong choice when compared against other series. Meanwhile per the article below, recent satellites have essentially no diurnal drift, with very stable performance for climate detection.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/10/eaau0049.full

 

RSS was up in February, but not as much. ERA was only up by 0.02C. I keep wondering if UAH is contaminated by what happens in the stratosphere more so than RSS. If so that would partly explain UAH's 0.13C/decade trend which is far lower than what any other dataset shows.

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8 hours ago, bdgwx said:

RSS was up in February, but not as much. ERA was only up by 0.02C. I keep wondering if UAH is contaminated by what happens in the stratosphere more so than RSS. If so that would partly explain UAH's 0.13C/decade trend which is far lower than what any other dataset shows.

Here is UAH6 - RSS. Almost a decade of cooling in UAH6 relative to RSS after the MSU to AMSU transition in 1998.  Recently introduction of satellites with limited diurnal drift has reduced the trend differences between RSS+UAH (see link above). 

UAH6vsRSS.png

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UAH also recorded another increase in stratospheric temperatures. If history is any guide then that means further troposphere cooling is around the corner. The leading hypothesis for stratospheric warming is still wildfire smoke.

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Stations observing a record mean temperature for the month of March. Consistent with warm GOM. Severe/tropical dice have an extra snake eye.

marchwarmth.png

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