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John1122

February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

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And check out the -AO on the GFS.

giphy.gif

I know it is the fantasy GFS, but seems like forever since we've seen something like this even in fantasy range. EPOs, yeah, we've seen em and watched em dissappear, same with NAOs, but AOs this winter, not so much, even waaayyyy out in time. 

I was wondering if the strat had anything to do with it and at 10mb, not so much, but it is drifting south, towards Canada at that height.  

Now, at 50 mb, there is much more wobbling and disruption. 

giphy.gif
 

I wonder if what we see here is a situation where the strat is too strong to split, but the descending QBO allows upper ridging that would normally split it, to push it south toward Canada? 

That also creates, in the GFS's fantasy realm for sure, an interesting wind configuration at 100 mb, just above the jet stream level:

Screen Shot 2020-02-01 at 12.46.40 PM

 

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The next work week looks sad if you want winter in the Mid Valley,temps could exceed around 15F+ AN. by the Euro and possibly around 3" of rain,possibly more in some locations depending on instability

 

ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB01
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 12Z 01-FEB   3.8    -2.1      -2              43              -9      -8    
SAT 18Z 01-FEB   5.5    -4.1      -3             -13             -10      -8    
SUN 00Z 02-FEB   4.5    -4.6      -3             -38              -6      -3    
SUN 06Z 02-FEB   0.7     0.5      -3               8               1       3    
SUN 12Z 02-FEB   0.5     5.0      -5               5               6      10    
SUN 18Z 02-FEB  12.6    10.5      -7             -20              10      15    
MON 00Z 03-FEB   8.7    12.7      -7             -28              12      17    
MON 06Z 03-FEB   6.1    14.6      -6             -30              13      19    
MON 12Z 03-FEB   5.2    12.7      -6             -31              13      18    
MON 18Z 03-FEB  13.2    11.8      -7             -20              12      18    
TUE 00Z 04-FEB  11.7    11.5      -9              25              12      19    
TUE 06Z 04-FEB  10.1     8.1      -7              50              11      17    
TUE 12Z 04-FEB   9.8     7.7      -7              56              10      15    
TUE 18Z 04-FEB  11.6     8.1      -7              51              10      15    
WED 00Z 05-FEB  11.9     8.1      -8    1098      50   39.54       9      15    
WED 06Z 05-FEB  12.2     9.6     -10    1097      43   39.51       8      16    
WED 12Z 05-FEB  12.1     9.3     -10    1098      48   39.69       8      16    
WED 18Z 05-FEB  13.2    10.3     -13    1097      43   39.64       6      17    
THU 00Z 06-FEB  13.9    10.8     -19              36               4      19    
THU 06Z 06-FEB  13.0    10.8     -21              35               1      18    
THU 12Z 06-FEB   6.1     8.8     -19             -17              -3      13    
THU 18Z 06-FEB   4.1     3.8     -19              53              -9       7    
FRI 00Z 07-FEB   3.7    -1.7     -21             -11             -16       0    
FRI 06Z 07-FEB  -0.1    -8.1     -17              12             -26     -12    
FRI 12Z 07-FEB  -1.6   -10.7     -14             -27             -28     -17    
FRI 18Z 07-FEB   1.8    -9.0     -10               5             -25     -17    
SAT 00Z 08-FEB   1.8    -2.6     -10              43             -16      -7    
SAT 06Z 08-FEB   4.3     0.9      -7              44             -10      -4    
SAT 12Z 08-FEB   4.2     0.2      -5              46              -7      -3  

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The MJO looks basically stuck into the Maritime upcoming,.i'm starting to wonder if it can't get even more crappier down the road.Region 3 of the ENSO is cool right now but by the looks there could be a KW upcoming towards the middle of the month which would/could upwell the warmer subsurface to the surface,sure looks possible if the KW is right

Climate Prediction Center - Daily MJO Indices (1).png

wkteq_xz gif  680×880 .png

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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At this rate we'll be mowing our lawns soon.


I mowed 3 days ago. Pic from my IG of me mowing on Christmas Eve. It’s still growing and I’ll probably put down preemerg this week. de555dd797aa8452cb0131d5ca87a86b.png



.
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4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 


I mowed 3 days ago. Pic from my IG of me mowing on Christmas Eve. It’s still growing and I’ll probably put down preemerg this week. de555dd797aa8452cb0131d5ca87a86b.png



.

 

Your lawn looks nice

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Your lawn looks nice

Thanks. I really enjoy working on lawns/landscaping for people. I don’t own a business, I’m into HVAC but I take care of a few properties and install about 10 landscapes a year. Unless we get really cold for about a week, fungal problems are gonna be bad this year.


.
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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

 


I mowed 3 days ago. Pic from my IG of me mowing on Christmas Eve. It’s still growing and I’ll probably put down preemerg this week. de555dd797aa8452cb0131d5ca87a86b.png



.

 

I was thinking on fertilizer tomorrow also?  Thinking can’t hurt and not to early right?

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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

 


I mowed 3 days ago. Pic from my IG of me mowing on Christmas Eve. It’s still growing and I’ll probably put down preemerg this week. de555dd797aa8452cb0131d5ca87a86b.png



.

 

Wow ! Not been quite that warm to get it it going here.

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Still watching the timeframe just after the 5th(trough is a nudge later which is no surprise).  The 18z GEFS has frozen precip for western TN and NE TN.  Then another little system dives in behind the initial front from the trough and brings more frozen precip to the eastern half of the state.  Not a bad look.  Nothing huge at this point, but I am still watching that last wave of precip on the initial front.  The CMC at 12z also had eastern Arkansas in the mix.  As evidenced with what happened in NC yesterday, a properly placed slp during winter can bring snow with even marginal temps.  

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2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

The MJO looks basically stuck into the Maritime upcoming,.i'm starting to wonder if it can't get even more crappier down the road.Region 3 of the ENSO is cool right now but by the looks there could be a KW upcoming towards the middle of the month which would/could upwell the warmer subsurface to the surface,sure looks possible if the KW is right

Climate Prediction Center - Daily MJO Indices (1).png

wkteq_xz gif  680×880 .png

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

I have learned as a Tennessee Volunteer fan to never ask the question, "Can it get worse?"  The answer is, "Yes, yes it can."  As noted earlier, I think the MJO is a fight the rest of the way unless there is some sort of major model bust that way.  If we are going to steal a shot down the road, I think we are going to either have to have very cold air overwhelm the pattern or get some unlikely help in the Atlantic.  But still, February is a month that often has surprises.  But yeah, the MJO has not really looked good at any point this winter.

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21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

New CANSIPS for this month.  Looks a lot like the EPS.  Supports what many have been saying...MJO really supports warm in the East for a time, but cold may try to push intermittently.  We will see.  Models still seem spilt between how much trough to build into the West after the cutoff and how much cold to press eastward.   12z EPS was not as good as the two runs that preceded it for sure.  Looks much more like cold will be centered in the front range and the Plains possible with cold surges heading east after initial ridging being the trough.  Really, it is a great looking trough rolling through next week, but source region cold is lacking to put it mildly.   I suspect that we see another window around the 20th, but we will see.  Just a hunch.  I am still not sold that modeling has the pattern after the 10th figured out yet.  Looks warm, but I don't think it is a given yet.  

8313085_ScreenShot2020-02-01at8_06_28PM.png.9fb44408f3c816ced57cf683c0d7cd09.png

Tropical hasnt updated,can you post the ENSO into the ENSO thread into summer,?It's been showing a LaNina,just curious to see if it still shows it,suspect it will,thanks

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18 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Tropical hasnt updated,can you post the ENSO into the ENSO thread into summer,?It's been showing a LaNina,just curious to see if it still shows it,suspect it will,thanks

LOL.  I need to look at the initialization date.  I had prepped your ENSO pics and realized the time stamp is Jan 1.  Please disregard the Cansips I just posted.  Hasn't updated on WxBell.  Pretty crazy the CANSIPS hit that pattern on Jan 1.  

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5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  I need to look at the initialization date.  I had prepped your ENSO pics and realized the time stamp is Jan 1.  Please disregard the Cansips I just posted.  Hasn't updated on WxBell.  Pretty crazy the CANSIPS hit that pattern on Jan 1.  

Ha..it usually updates to the date stamp

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Nice snow storm on the Euro and under 200 hours. Rarity this season. Really hope we can reel something in here. 

here is to hoping it is on more than one model run, looks nice though

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5 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Just amazing rainfall and warmth being projected by the latest run of the GFS, just unbelievable; things will be literally leafed out by the end of February, just amazing. 

Mid 60's for an extended period of time in mid February - just so amazing - residents of the TN Valley will be sorely surprised when the larger scale pattern eventually flips; if we were to have a winter season like we had in my child hood -1970's-1980's - people would not know what to do not to mention if we had one similar to the 1960's where almost every season in that decade had at least one big storm and several seasons had seasonal totals well over 12" - just amazing!

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Looks like the 0z Euro has a significant snow storm around Feb 9th with some areas of the Eastern Valley modeled with 6-8" and lollipop areas of 10-12" on the southern Plateau and GSNMP.  Pretty good thump for the Plateau and Eastern Valley.  This is the first I have seen of that particular system, so I won't be too invested until we see it again.  As has been mentioned ad nauseam, that is in the window that we have been tracking.  The reason the window is a good one is because of the trough that is coming through on the 7th, which is about 36 hours later than modeling had it about a week ago, but is still well within the parameters that we have been looking at which is the 5-10th.  The Euro would have sever and snow within about a four day time frame.  That is not without precedent.  Again, not getting too much invested in that run as that look was a first.  Definitely worth some discussion since it is within day 7.  As noted  a few pages back, the Euro extends the duration of the trough through almost 240.

The 0z and 6z GFS continue to show a decent last wave of three along the initial trough arrival.  It is going to have to be watched.  The Euro has a similar set-up but accentuates the trough right before the GFS does.  Either model could be correct.  It is in the realm of possibility that the first wave could be sever and the last snow.  

 

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Here's that Euro storm, for those interested, mostly eastern and elevation areas:

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

I think we're at the point, like John said, where it's a win just to get a modeled storm under 200 hours, lol. 

Same thing, at least for me, for the pole. 

giphy.gif

Nice to see that sucker getting pushed around consistently and **gasps** aimed toward us for once instead of Siberia. 

giphy.gif

Euro looks similar, but doesn't do out as far yet. 

3D maps shows a bottom up and top down attack

giphy.gif

I think I would prefer it to stick together and roll over toward us. If it splits at the end of February, probably yet another cloudy, rainy spring in the cards. 

EPS says its our turn to drink:

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

 

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LR modeling...

I feel like the 0z EPS and GEPS(huge step) took a step forward overnight.   The EPS has the big ridge that weather tree has been talking about...in the East from the 10-15th.  Indeed, it is robust.    It then moves to a broader trough.  The GEPS has it from the 9th to the 15th, and then reverses the pattern to another eastern trough late.  The key in both of those runs is how long the EPO ridge holds vs retrograding to the northwest.  I really don't think that piece of the equation is solved.  It does looks like some form of a trough will dig around the 10th in the West, but I am not holding my breath.  The Euro operational cuts the low off in the Southwest and has pushed back the formation of the western trough to the 11th.  The -EPO on the 0z Euro operational is about as strong as one can get it.  That is likely what caused the aforementioned storm to form on the 9th.  I think a trough goes into the West eventually, but a ton of uncertainty after the initial modeled trough on the 7th rolls through.   It is entirely possible that a trough could tuck into the West for a time.  Duration is probably the question.  Whether it is right or wrong, The 6z GFS and 0z GFS have understandably quite differing solutions after d10.  The GFS/GEFS combo is really warm in part because that model does not cut off the southwest low, but digs a big trough earlier into the West which allows strong height rises at 500 in the East.  Again, that little cut-off likely holds a big key in the downstream pattern.

 

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7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Convection is a mess this AM,a little bit everywhere:

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

 

 

The MJO is just going to be a fight the rest of the winter as evidenced by Holston's satellite looks.  Phases 2-3 are dying while the warm phases fire.  Again, the way to beat that pattern is to have cold overwhelm the pattern and/or we get a strong -EPO which is able to fight off the MJO. That has happened in the past, but it is not the norm.  

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The last wave deal gets a mention by MRX this AM. Great disco for the upcoming week.

 

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Models continue to agree on a very wet and mild pattern for Tuesday through Thursday, but there are some important details regarding the periods of highest rain chances, chances of thunder, QPF, and frontal passage timing that are not in good agreement. The ECWMF has remained fairly consistent from run to run, while the GFS has changed quite a bit, mainly in regard to the timing of the cold front passage and low pressure track. The ECWMF will be preferred for its consistency, but with low confidence on details, the forecast will be broad brushed with high PoPs for Monday night through Thursday, and few significant changes will be made from the previous forecast. The ECWMF keeps us firmly in the warm sector of the approaching system, tracking a surface low from LA to OH on Wed-Thu, then pushing a cold front through late Thursday. A slight chance of thunderstorms will continue to be mentioned Wednesday and Wednesday night, and while a severe threat cannot be ruled out due to the 50 kt LLJ, surface based instability will be mainly to our south. Heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding will be a greater concern, and the HWO will continue to mention this. Storm total QPF in the range of 2-4 inches is expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible. Low confidence due to model differences continue with the post- frontal pattern on Thursday night/Friday. The GFS`s more eastern track of the low results in more wrap around moisture into our area, while the ECMWF has more dry advection and very little post-frontal precip. Both have a broad longwave trough over the eastern Conus, so a low to slight chance PoP will be maintained through Friday and Saturday. Temps this period appear to support a chance of snow in some northern areas and higher elevations.

 

 

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