February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler that is a fairly rough looking vortex at the surface(looking at your animation).  Wonder if that is why modeling is struggling after the 10th?  A displaced TPV will upend any modeling around d10.   Thanks for the gifs this AM as well.  I know those take some time.  Big help!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah, I think part of the EPS flip flop is what exactly it does with the lowest heights in the N hemisphere. The runs where it has them closer to Greenland usually = stouter SE ridge. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not really adding much here, but man this looks nice:

still just 6z run, but would be different from the last two years in that it displaces and splits towards us:

exactly what we've been missing this year too, a nice punch from Scandinavia 

[Carvers Gap]

Regarding d9+ MJO...Indeed, the GEFS is quite different than the Euro and CFS which are low amplitude in warm phases or just COD, respectively.  The GEFS goes at a decent amplitude through the warm phases.  The ECMF barely goes into the warm phases at all.  The ECMM is quite weak but is in the warm phases.  Will be intersting to see which model leads here as that likley decides a good chunk of Feb.  Also explains why the EPS is somtimes less bullish on the D9+ ridge duration.   Also, just an interesting note(likley means nothing), the observed MJO took a turn directly opposite of where it was forecast yesterday.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z GFS looks good for the third wave deal:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

To be fair, really the only thing we've done well on the past couple of years are waves spinning up on fronts that have passed by, so this one fits the trend. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And by well I mean only 1 - 3 for some areas in the eastern TN valley

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just noticed the Euro has a bunch of really, really strong lows all over the N Hemisphere. Could be par for the course, but seems odd ot me. maybe those have something to do with the attacks on the SPV

 

[mackerel_sky]

2 hours ago, Greyhound said:

Give it up. 2020 winter is officially done

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk
 

I think he’s about as accurate as JB

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Any of y'all heard of this guy:

He just joined twitter in the fall and was almost immediately followed by Masiello. Me, being the sucker I am, also followed him. He writes about the sun in ways I haven't heard anyone:

Thoughts? Looks like he likes the 53 - 54 analogue too. 

[Runman292]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's that Euro storm, for those interested, mostly eastern and elevation areas:

I think we're at the point, like John said, where it's a win just to get a modeled storm under 200 hours, lol. 

Same thing, at least for me, for the pole. 

Nice to see that sucker getting pushed around consistently and **gasps** aimed toward us for once instead of Siberia. 

Euro looks similar, but doesn't do out as far yet. 

3D maps shows a bottom up and top down attack

I think I would prefer it to stick together and roll over toward us. If it splits at the end of February, probably yet another cloudy, rainy spring in the cards. 

EPS says its our turn to drink:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Runman292

We're at Leeroy Jenkins level when we are looking to the strat:

 

[John1122]

With the AO about to set another positive record and the Pacific being bad since December,  flakes in the air would be a major win. Let alone even the 1 to 3 the GFS spits out in spots. 

[Carvers Gap]

That AO is huge on some modelling.  For sure John, would be pretty awesome.  Did one of the winters in the mid 2010s have a big +AO and we still had snow?

[Stovepipe]

3 hours ago, Greyhound said:

Give it up. 2020 winter is officially done

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk
 

[jaxjagman]

Looking like the rossby wave train is coming through NA the next several days.We already have some flood threat upcoming,long range models are hinting at a occluded system just before Valentines day.We should be dealing with a flood potential especially the storm before Valentines day.,we'll have to wait and see how the details tho work out.Even tho we have a more -EPO  the -PNA looks rather strong right now

[jaxjagman]

Have to wait and see but if there is a more occuled system there would be a potential of strong thunderstorms that would be along the WF lifting N,seems most of the models are showing this set-up right now

[jaxjagman]

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC and 0z Euro do have a western/middle TN snowstorm as the trough lifts out.  Someone noted, that energy has been on modeling for a while, it has normally been rain or just weak.  But the trough looks fairly potent in its structure though cold air is limited.  Still watching that last wave on the initial trough in regards to NE TN as well on Friday.  In the LR, modeling again favors a SER of varying strength w the EPS being the weakest with cold setting up in the front range.  Confidence in that setup is growing from the 10th-15th.   Both the GEFS and EPS do lift the trough somewhat out of the West around mid-month w a ridge still bellying under any eastern NA trough that forms.  I have less confidence about what happens if/once the ridge lifts out of the West.  Zonal would likely be my thoughts then around mid-month.  There is a chance that the cold presses and that will have to be watched depending on its strength.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS shows some support for that one too, if we're walking about the same one, again mostly plateau west:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

So, just to show the envelope of potential for the system as the trough is lifting out, here is EPS member 37:

and member 17:

I'm guessing we need the last wave before that one to crank it up and git, git, git, to act like a 50/50 to force confluence and the next wave south. Something to root for anyway. 

Euro Control shows a middle ground between the two:

[Carvers Gap]

Something I noticed on the CPC MJO site...The MJO is all over the place regarding various models.  The models that I trust the most are low amplitude warm phases for 8-10 days beginning in around 5-7 days and then COD again.    When the MJO goes into the COD, that seems to cut the legs out from under the eastern ridge.  Something to watch in modeling.  Again, most of us are just looking for windows where the pattern might relax enough for that to happen.  Also, the forecast record AO has nowhere to go but down.  So, eyeballing the timeframe around the 20th for another window for winter weather potential.  Obviously that is not set in stone.  Again, I am not sure I trust modeling right now with the MJO all over the places.  We will be fighting phase the rest of the winter unless something changes.  Also, the trend to really build heights over Alaska is something to watch as well.  A -EPO seems to trump everything but phase 6 of the MJO.  

[snowmaker]

Carver what's your thought's on the 9th-10th time frame right now?

[Carvers Gap]

51 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

Carver what's your thought's on the 9th-10th time frame right now?

Tough call.  I think the snow in western North Carolina last week proves a well placed slp or wave can produce snow with marginal temps.  We really need it to dig below our latitude on modeling.  Those things have a tendency to trend northward over time.  Another option is for the wave to do what occurred on the CMC which is to form a storm.  This weekend's trough is not benign.  Not all all troughs during winter produce, but there is a reason folks watch them.  Details matter, and we don't have enough for the 9-10th time frame yet.  Definitely worth tracking at this range though.

[nrgjeff]

Saturday looks like an elevation snow north of I-40, perhaps limited to just the Upper Plateau and Mountains. TRI might get lucky, but currently looks like too much WAA up the Valley. That and concerns Carvers notes above.

Thickness and 850 mb look right, but that darn boundary layer spoils again. Upstairs one sees the 500 mb and 700 mb vort maxima go at/north of the area. It's cookbook meteorology, but pretty reliable, that sucks.. the life out of the system. Sure enough 2m progs are too warm to stick. Exception would be a narrow moderate to heavy snow band.

Always possible cool air gets trapped MRX north - even better for TRI. Current progs show nothing like that, but it's day 6. Unfortunately I'm fairly confident taking out TYS and BNA. I'm not even thinking about CHA.

Looking farther out, watching the SER re-appear after some weekend modeling feels like probably how SFO fans felt 4Q. Too early? On the bright side, we KC fans felt like when a TROWAL surprises with big snow after starting as rain. Might be my only chance this winter to write TROWAL.

[snowmaker]

I'm located in northwest middle tn, I was just wondering about folks thoughts on the 9-10th. I appreciate the updates from Carver and everyone else. Would love to see at least a good portion of the state get a snow before the spring finally puts winter out of it's misery. All it would take is a good snow for everyone to be happy, but out time is ticking for sure.

[tennvolfan]

Euro control still puts down a swath from Memphis to Clarksville Friday night/ Saturday am. It’s really close. 850’s appear favorable but ground temps are borderline and maybe would even be in the mid 30’s. Timing and strength will determine if it’s just an open wave with no thermals or something a little more potent that has some extra dynamics.

SER does flex on the euro control after this but it also has a possible overunning event a few days later as the arctic boundary wavers south. One thing is for sure. The 44 corridor is about to get clocked from OKC to St. Louis.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like happy hour GFS was reading Jeff's mind, lol:

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like happy hour GFS was reading Jeff's mind, lol:

The irony of that run is that the -EPO finally did what most of us think it would do during a normal year...it kicked that trough(which forms around Feb 10th) out of the West after 4-5 days.  The ensemble does not support that, but I still don't think they run off the same core.  I am not convinced that western trough holds.  It may, but it may not.  It is not like LR modeling has been overly accurate this winter.  But not getting wrapped up in GFS at range.  It's just that it shows what can happen if the EPO ridge is being modeled incorrectly.  If it pushes into the coast by a fraction on the global scale, that trough kicks East.  All other teleconnections were terrible on the 18z, but it does demonstrate what the EPO can do if positioned correctly.  The MJO is driving the bus, but if it ever decides to let up or stay in the COD...if we have a -EPO, it would be the second most influential driver for MBY.

Yeah, I hope we don't waste a potent trough this weekend.  Hopefully, we can score something out of it! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS not quite as excited this afternoon, but probably the best odds, if we're just basing it solely on EPS 24 hours snow plots that we've had all season. Not that that's saying much: