CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 You picked the hour where even the operational GFS has mixing almost into CNY. It’s hour 120 where the fun and games begin. What does the GEFS show then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 It's about LP being to our west or over us on the majority of ensemble members.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 4.2" since last night here of very wet snow, and still coming down good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 Wolf, that's a strengthening high pressure sinking south. I think the models are having trouble handling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Totals between both systems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I'm bringing the Newfoundland mojo this year, apparently. Flying into BUF on Tuesday to visit my mom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 We are kinda sleeping on the Thursday system which could be a nice appetizer (3"-6").. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We are kinda sleeping on the Thursday system which could be a nice appetizer (3"-6").. The way this year is going this will probably end up being the whole damn meal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: The way this year is going this will probably end up being the whole damn meal With some rain to wash it down? Let's hope not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: I'm gonna be a pretty big buzzkill right now lol Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 GEFS really went west. Operational looked great. GEM looks good and Ukmet looks great. So all in all we are looking ok. I like that a HP is showing up with a big blob of VERY cold to our NW. This one was always a long shot but it’s looking better and better. Why do you think the GEFS kicked west (they’ve been East for days)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Doesn’t look as bad this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 WPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Euro is still cutting the Thursday system, nice front end thump before some light mixing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Mine looks different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 EURO Looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Wolfie, you were looking at first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I know lol That's why I said Thursday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Looks good. How do you share this site? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Mine looks different Wow, so the EC caved to the GFS on this run. Good news for sure at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 And.... changeover to rain on the backside... my 2” of fluff is down to a half inch of slush... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: And.... changeover to rain on the backside... my 2” of fluff is down to a half inch of slush... . Just shoveled 3-4" of the heaviest snow in years. Had to be 1:6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 A feed of mid-higher level eastern tropical Pacific moisture and increasingly deep layered Gulf of Mexico inflow ahead of the approaching upper trough and favorable jet support/instability will fuel an expanding heavy rainfall and local runoff threat from the South/Southeast to the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. SPC also still shows a severe weather risk across the South/Southeast. Cold post-frontal high pressure will dig through the south-central U.S./Midwest as lead high pressure dams ahead of the system into the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Wrapback flow on the northwest periphery of the precipitation shield and thetae advection into the receding cold air over the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast will favor a heavy snow/ice swath threat. Activity will be enhanced by deepening frontal waves lifting from the Southern Plains/Gulf Coast to the Appalachians and Northeast Wed-Fri prior to frontal exit into the western Atlantic. Models and ensembles have converged more upon a better clustered forecast with this overall scenario, at least at moderate to larger scales, bolstering forecast confidence in a composite blend along with the National Blend of Models Weather prediction center.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just shoveled 3-4" of the heaviest snow in years. Had to be 1:6 Got close to 2" today as well. Starting to melt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 That's a April temp map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Isn't that like a record +AO? Seems like in recent years the AO has been exceptionally positive in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I'm pretty sure that's both systems lol It's not that slow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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