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Upstate/Eastern New York


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GEFS really went west. Operational looked great. GEM looks good and Ukmet looks great. So all in all we are looking ok. I like that a HP is showing up with a big blob of VERY cold to our NW. This one was always a long shot but it’s looking better and better. 
Why do you think the GEFS kicked west (they’ve been East for days)?

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A feed of mid-higher level eastern
tropical Pacific moisture and increasingly deep layered Gulf of
Mexico inflow ahead of the approaching upper trough and favorable
jet support/instability will fuel an expanding heavy rainfall and
local runoff threat from the South/Southeast to the
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. SPC also still shows a severe weather
risk across the South/Southeast. Cold post-frontal high pressure
will dig through the south-central U.S./Midwest as lead high
pressure dams ahead of the system into the northern
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Wrapback flow on the northwest periphery
of the precipitation shield and thetae advection into the receding
cold air over the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast will favor a
heavy snow/ice swath threat. Activity will be enhanced by
deepening frontal waves lifting from the Southern Plains/Gulf
Coast to the Appalachians and Northeast Wed-Fri prior to frontal
exit into the western Atlantic. Models and ensembles have
converged more upon a better clustered forecast with this overall
scenario, at least at moderate to larger scales, bolstering
forecast confidence in a composite blend along with the National
Blend of Models

Weather prediction center..

 

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