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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I'm not just saying this - but when I glanced at radar before leaving Colesville to head to my place - I had a feeling there might be a surprise in the works when I saw those lone cells getting going to the west. Had that trajectory/feeling of something that could propagate towards the metros. 

Yea when those two cells were maintaining updrafts in an area of limited instability, you knew that was going to be a sign someone was going to win.

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm not just saying this - but when I glanced at radar before leaving Colesville to head to my place - I had a feeling there might be a surprise in the works when I saw those lone cells getting going to the west. Had that trajectory/feeling of something that could propagate towards the metros. 

 

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea when those two cells were maintaining updrafts in an area of limited instability, you knew that was going to be a sign someone was going to win.

Indeed. Cells taking advantage of decent speed shear with otherwise modest instability would do that.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea when those two cells were maintaining updrafts in an area of limited instability, you knew that was going to be a sign someone was going to win.

We're all still waiting for our next region-wide event, though. We're starting to get into the time of year when pulse severe dominates generally. There can be exceptions, of course...but one reason I really like April to June is that you can generally get better shear and such. September can be really good too if things fall right. 

I know I've said this 100+ times - but I REALLY think (even if only anecdotally still) that we had more regionwide squall lines in the 90s and earlier 2000s. Not necessarily derecho-quality events - but just solid lines extending from the M/D line down into VA. Seems we have become a more line segment or lone cells kind of area. 

I'm sure some of this is just me remembering wrong - and maybe also lower quality radar sources when I was a kid (I relied on the local forecast on TWC).

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25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

We're all still waiting for our next region-wide event, though. We're starting to get into the time of year when pulse severe dominates generally. There can be exceptions, of course...but one reason I really like April to June is that you can generally get better shear and such. September can be really good too if things fall right. 

I know I've said this 100+ times - but I REALLY think (even if only anecdotally still) that we had more regionwide squall lines in the 90s and earlier 2000s. Not necessarily derecho-quality events - but just solid lines extending from the M/D line down into VA. Seems we have become a more line segment or lone cells kind of area. 

I'm sure some of this is just me remembering wrong - and maybe also lower quality radar sources when I was a kid (I relied on the local forecast on TWC).

I feel like squall lines were also more frequent in the 90s as well.

Nice day yesterday for the Moco to Laurel crew. That was a nice storm.

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29 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

We're all still waiting for our next region-wide event, though. We're starting to get into the time of year when pulse severe dominates generally. There can be exceptions, of course...but one reason I really like April to June is that you can generally get better shear and such. September can be really good too if things fall right. 

Given the fact it is 2020, the next region-wide event might just be a named storm.  After the dust settles down in the tropics.      

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Looking at the CAMs - I'm not sure the marginal needs to be as far south as it is for tomorrow. I think most of us may even stay high and dry. I can see why there's a marginal for Sunday, though. 

     12z NAM nest and HRRR both develop storms Saturday in the local area.    Instability is limited, and shear is marginal,  but there will be a lot of downdraft cape.     Personally, I'm not very enthused, because the low level air will be so dry, but I'm ok with the MRGL.

     Sunday could be good if we lose the ugly warm mid-level temperatures being progged.

 

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This year has been so far the best thunderstorm year since I’ve moved here. I missed semi-daily thunder, it’s the one thing about Louisiana I miss most.

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SLGT risk was moved south in the 1730z update to include all of northern into central MD into extreme N VA for wind

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

SLGT risk was moved south in the 1730z update to include all of northern into central MD into extreme N VA for wind

LWX says it's pretty conditional. Coverage looks sparse on the NAM nest. 

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3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

LWX says it's pretty conditional. Coverage looks sparse on the NAM nest. 

Guess we shall see... POPS actually went up to 40 percent for DCA on the 730 update from 0 percent at the 430 one.

Will be isolated as you state most likely, but if any storm can get going... good chance of damaging wind gusts

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Pretty active day per the LWX LSR summary yesterday for a MRGL risk of severe

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1110 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W MARTINSBURG         39.46N  78.01W
06/25/2020                   BERKELEY           WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF TUSCARORA PIKE AND
            IROQUOIS TRAIL.

0351 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW MARTINSBURG       39.47N  77.98W
06/25/2020                   BERKELEY           WV   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS IN THE MARTINSBURG
            AND HEDGESVILLE AREA.

0356 PM     HAIL             2 NNW MARTINSBURG ARPT  39.43N  77.99W
06/25/2020  M0.75 INCH       BERKELEY           WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM     HAIL             2 SSE MARTINSBURG       39.44N  77.96W
06/25/2020  E0.75 INCH       BERKELEY           WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND ESTIMATED 45-50 MPH WINDS

0404 PM     HAIL             2 E MARTINSBURG         39.46N  77.94W
06/25/2020  M0.75 INCH       BERKELEY           WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

0412 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N SHEPHERDSTOWN       39.47N  77.81W
06/25/2020                   JEFFERSON          WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LIMBS DOWN THAT WERE ABOUT 3-4" IN DIAMETER
            NEAR SHEPHERDSTOWN.

0507 PM     HAIL             1 SE CHARLES TOWN       39.28N  77.85W
06/25/2020  M0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

0519 PM     HAIL             3 SSE MILLVILLE         39.26N  77.76W
06/25/2020  E0.75 INCH       LOUDOUN            VA   AMATEUR RADIO

0519 PM     HAIL             2 SE JEFFERSON          39.34N  77.51W
06/25/2020  M0.75 INCH       FREDERICK          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0528 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E PARK MILLS          39.30N  77.38W
06/25/2020                   FREDERICK          MD   911 CALL CENTER

            POWERLINES DOWN IN 8300 BLOCK OF PETERS ROAD.

0528 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE MILLVILLE         39.26N  77.73W
06/25/2020                   LOUDOUN            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ALONG HARPERS FERRY ROAD AND
            WHITE ROCK ROAD NEAR NEERSVILLE.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE PARK MILLS        39.32N  77.36W
06/25/2020                   FREDERICK          MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON 3000 BLOCK OF THURSTON ROAD.

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW LEESBURG          39.12N  77.57W
06/25/2020                   LOUDOUN            VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A SMALL PART OF THE ROOF OF IDA LEE PARK RECREATION
            CENTER WAS PEELED OFF. TREE DAMAGE IN THE AREA,
            INCLUDING ON VA-7 HARRY BYRD HIGHWAY NEAR BERLIN
            TURNPIKE.

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARK MILLS              39.30N  77.41W
06/25/2020                   FREDERICK          MD   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE PARK MILLS AREA.

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAITHERSBURG            39.14N  77.22W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN 19900 BLOCK OF
            BEALLSVILLE ROAD.

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE CLARKSBURG         39.23N  77.27W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING NORTHBOUND LANE OF MD 355 AT SHAWNEE
            LANE.

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW GERMANTOWN        39.20N  77.27W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN 12800 BLOCK OF DUCK POND DRIVE.

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N GERMANTOWN          39.20N  77.26W
06/25/2020  M68 MPH          MONTGOMERY         MD   MESONET

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE DAMASCUS          39.24N  77.18W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION OF
            WOODFIELD ROAD AND WATKINS ROAD.

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAITHERSBURG            39.14N  77.22W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND WIRES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
            CITY OF GAITHERSBURG.

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     GAITHERSBURG            39.14N  77.22W
06/25/2020  M70 MPH          MONTGOMERY         MD   MESONET

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W ROCKVILLE           39.08N  77.16W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED IN 200 BLOCK OF AUTUMN WIND WAY.

0619 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE POTOMAC           39.04N  77.16W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIRES AND TREE BRANCHES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF SEVEN
            LOCKS ROAD AND TUCKERMAN LANE.

0619 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKVILLE               39.08N  77.15W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF
            ROCKVILLE.

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANGLEY                 38.94N  77.16W
06/25/2020                   FAIRFAX            VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE AND BRANCHES DOWN IN THE AREA OF VA-123 DOLLEY
            MADISON BOULEVARD NEAR BALLANTRAE LANE.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N ROCKVILLE           39.13N  77.14W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON BEECH DRIVE NEAR NEEDWOOD DRIVE

0636 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E BETHESDA            38.99N  77.11W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES UPROOTED, WITH ROADS CLOSED AND DAMAGE
            TO SEVERAL HOMES IN THE BETHESDA BATTERY PARK
            NEIGHBORHOOD.

0638 PM     HAIL             BETHESDA                38.99N  77.12W
06/25/2020  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         MD   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BETHESDA.

0639 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N SOMERSET            38.97N  77.09W
06/25/2020                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BRANCHES AND WIRES DOWN IN 4920 BLOCK OF CHEVY
            CHASE BLVD.

0644 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE SOMERSET          38.96N  77.07W
06/25/2020                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON 36TH STREET NW BETWEEN GARRISON AND
            NEVADA AVE NW, FESSENDEN STREET NW BETWEEN 36TH AND 34TH
            STREET, AND LINNEAN TERAACE BETWEEN 33RD STREET AND
            LINNEAN AVE NW.

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE SOMERSET          38.96N  77.07W
06/25/2020                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON HOME IN 3700 BLOCK OF CHESAPEAKE STREET
            NW.

0646 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NASONS                  38.26N  78.03W
06/25/2020                   ORANGE             VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN BETWEEN ORANGE AND
            UNIONVILLE

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORANGE COUNTY ARPT      38.25N  78.05W
06/25/2020  M59 MPH          ORANGE             VA   AWOS

0656 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW LAHORE            38.22N  77.98W
06/25/2020                   ORANGE             VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR KENDALL AND LAHORE
            ROADS

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W THORNHILL           38.16N  78.00W
06/25/2020                   ORANGE             VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR MONROVIA AND MARQUIS ROADS

0706 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 7 SSE SAINT GEORGE ISLA 38.01N  76.45W
06/25/2020  M39 MPH          ANZ537             MD   BUOY

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E BELMONT             38.16N  77.82W
06/25/2020                   SPOTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE WESTERN PART OF
            SPOTSYLVANIA

0734 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARRENTON               38.72N  77.80W
06/25/2020                   FAUQUIER           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MANY REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN AND NEAR WARRENTON

0734 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE UPPER MARLBORO    38.83N  76.75W
06/25/2020                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON LARGO ROAD NEAR UPPER MARLBORO.

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W PARTLOW             38.04N  77.68W
06/25/2020                   SPOTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED/SNAPPED IN THE 10000 BLOCK OF
            HUMMINGBIRD DR. NEAR PARTLOW, VA.

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARTLOW                 38.04N  77.64W
06/25/2020                   SPOTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWNED IN THE PARTLOW AREA

0743 PM     HAIL             2 W PARTLOW             38.04N  77.68W
06/25/2020  M1.50 INCH       SPOTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

0832 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW TRIANGLE           38.52N  77.36W
06/25/2020                   PRINCE WILLIAM     VA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING ALL LANES OF US 1 NEAR RUSSELL
            ROAD

0839 PM     TSTM WND GST     QUANTICO MARINE CORP    38.51N  77.30W
06/25/2020  M63 MPH          PRINCE WILLIAM     VA   ASOS

0859 PM     HAIL             2 E IRONSIDES           38.49N  77.13W
06/25/2020  M1.00 INCH       CHARLES            MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

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6 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

LWX says it's pretty conditional. Coverage looks sparse on the NAM nest. 

SPC Day 1 0600 OTLK has N MD in SLGT including Baltimore metro... SLGT risk extends southward into C MD and extreme N VA... MRGL risk as far south as EZF

5% hail and 15% wind in SLGT... 5% hail and 5% wind in MRGL... 2% TOR for BWI to Westminster and NE MD

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Radar already has activity scattered about.....Frederick County MD, Central PA, Shenandoah Valley, approaching far western MD and now approaching I95 west of Stafford/Fredericksburg.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
DCC001-MDC003-031-033-272145-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0148.200627T2100Z-200627T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  The northeastern District of Columbia...
  West central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Northern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 459 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Goddard to North Chevy Chase, moving east at 20
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bethesda, Bowie, College Park, Crofton, Greenbelt, Langley Park,
  Beltsville, Bladensburg, University of Maryland, Fedex Field,
  Gallaudet University, Fort Totten, RFK Stadium, Landover,
  Hyattsville, Takoma Park, East Riverdale, Adelphi, Kemp Mill and
  New Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 7657 3888 7696 3901 7715 3905 7675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 281DEG 18KT 3901 7681 3900 7708

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

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Multiple trees down, neighbors trampoline went fully airborne and dented a car.  I’m guessing we verified severe here. 

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Those storms a bit ago looked nice on radar. Us in Southern MD have had very little luck with healthy storms so far this season...I assume its related to the waters stabilizing the environment. May have to start driving farther out to watch storms.

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If that particular storm holds intensity and the same direction - it might clip me here near Arundel Mills. I should think about getting in the car and heading a bit east if it holds, maybe. If nothing else maybe a good photo op. 

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If that particular storm holds intensity and the same direction - it might clip me here near Arundel Mills. I should think about getting in the car and heading a bit east if it holds, maybe. If nothing else maybe a good photo op. 

I’m just west of you on the Elkridge/Columbia line. Wondering if this hits me head on at some point. I might consider jumping in the car though to get some good pictures too.

 

eta: looking at radar, that storm is in no hurry to go anywhere fast. I could see it easily missing east at this point. 

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’m just west of you on the Elkridge/Columbia line. Wondering if this hits me head on at some point. I might consider jumping in the car though to get some good pictures too. 

I just went out my front door and looked NE. I think it's a bit close to get anything good - you can definitely see the storm, but it's just messy looking. Going to have to see if it holds organization or if it collapses at some point. I'd bet on the collapse with some outflow rushing out - but the question is when. It's  in an area that did have a bit more shear than areas to the south of DC - so it's got that going for it. Also no shortage of CAPE. I think if it holds together it may stay just east of me...

 

ETA: Echo tops have come down from their peak as well. And if you loop that product - it argues for it to be a bit east of you and me. 

ETAv2: VIL product looped shows it had a good trajectory for us maybe - but has acquired a bit more southerly component more recently. We need the westerly motion to resume. 

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Surprised this didn’t at least get one of those “Tornado possible” tags at the end of the STW.

6007C9BB-A3CA-434E-8EE6-B61BA03D348A.jpeg

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