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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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Great storm. Not much wind but a ton of T&L...torrential rain and pretty long duration too.  1.27" from that one. 1.65" for the day so far.

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Maybe a lil something this afternoon from DC south?  Morning AFD from LWX seems to think so:

As instability builds, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form across the area this afternoon and persist through the
evening hours. Very weak flow is in place at low- levels, but
decent shear exists in the mid-levels, along with
counterclockwise curvature in the hodograph. With the jet core
overhead, strong speed shear continues all the way to the
equilibrium level. With supercellular shear in place, and
counterclockwise curvature in the hodograph, wouldn`t be
surprised to see some left movers today. Given the long
hodographs with strong speed shear at mid-upper levels, some
storms may be capable of producing severe hail, especially to
the south and east of DC where instability is greatest. While
flow will be weak at low-levels, some models hint at inverted V
type soundings, especially to the north and west of I-95, where
there`s a bit less low-level moisture. These inverted V
profiles will aid in accelerating downdrafts, and could result
in at least some potential for damaging winds in any stronger
storms that form. Think that the tornado potential is near zero,
given the lack of low-level flow. In terms of timing, storms
could form as early as noon over the higher terrain. As the
afternoon progresses, these storms should work east across the
area, with the best chance for storms in the metro areas falling
between roughly 4 and 8 PM.

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5 hours ago, yoda said:

Maybe a lil something this afternoon from DC south?  Morning AFD from LWX seems to think so:

 

 

      today definitely has sneaky potential.    as noted by LWX, low level shear is miserable, but deep layer shear is really good, and there is also a fair amount of downdraft cape.     I'd say now that while the best threat is definitely south of DC, where the better instability will reside, I'd say "I-70 and points south" for the threat, as the HRRR has definitely trended further north with good reflectivity signals since LWX wrote that discussion.

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Ava had their futurecast on this morning, storms popping 3-5pm in central maryland. obviously take it with a grain of salt, but i could go for another afternoon of thunderstorms

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absolute torrential downpour.  there will be some severe reports from this line.  i'm on the southern edge, but still getting my money's worth.

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70mph wind gust reported by mesonet in Gaithersburg, MD

68mph wind gust reported by mesonet 2 N Germantown, MD

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21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Outflow boundary from the storm is seriously gusty. Looks like I’m getting fringed though.

Pretty cool to see on radarscope... from W DC into N VA

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Got in on one for a change. Small hail, torrential if brief rain,  outflow gusts probably over 50. Sky was semi bright the whole time. Probably a nice rainbow somewhere.

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Great storm.  Hail core just missed me to the south, but I got torrential rain (maxing out at 9.5 in/hr) and some good wind gusts likely around 40 mph.

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23 minutes ago, yoda said:

70mph wind gust reported by mesonet in Gaithersburg, MD

68mph wind gust reported by mesonet 2 N Germantown, MD

M56mph at our EOC wx station in Gaithersburg. 

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Nothing here in Calvert. Potomac acting like a forcefield. Looked pretty decent on radar though, glad that some of us are getting some much needed excitement.

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What year during the 2000s and 2010s had the most severe weather during the month of July, and how is that year different from this year in regards to upper air patterns, ENSO, etc

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12 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Pretty good storm *sub severe* here in the Arundel Mills area. Sneaky day! 

Yea it definitely was a sneaky day. We get these events where it looks pretty benign and then you get a lone cell or three that would end up verifying a slight risk and a WW. Other times, it's a textbook setup and the entire subforum whiffs.

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18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it definitely was a sneaky day. We get these events where it looks pretty benign and then you get a lone cell or three that would end up verifying a slight risk and a WW. Other times, it's a textbook setup and the entire subforum whiffs.

          The one thing we had yesterday that we hadn't had here in a while was good flow aloft on a storm day.        We had about 90 kt at jet level Thursday afternoon.

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19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it definitely was a sneaky day. We get these events where it looks pretty benign and then you get a lone cell or three that would end up verifying a slight risk and a WW. Other times, it's a textbook setup and the entire subforum whiffs.

Good example of how it only takes one or two cells to make or break a day for individual backyards. Big factor is WHERE the cells go. Had the cells stayed over the mountains or cut up into PA before coming into the urbanized areas - would have been called a whiff. But it went through the metro area - so it gets a higher mark simply because of the location. 

I probably would have gotten a better dose of the storm had I been at my parent's house in Colesville *eyeroll*

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Just now, high risk said:

          The one thing we had yesterday that we hadn't had here in a while was good flow aloft on a storm day.        We had about 90 kt at jet level Thursday afternoon.

Looking at the CAMs - I'm not sure the marginal needs to be as far south as it is for tomorrow. I think most of us may even stay high and dry. I can see why there's a marginal for Sunday, though. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Good example of how it only takes one or two cells to make or break a day for individual backyards. Big factor is WHERE the cells go. Had the cells stayed over the mountains or cut up into PA before coming into the urbanized areas - would have been called a whiff. But it went through the metro area - so it gets a higher mark simply because of the location. 

I probably would have gotten a better dose of the storm had I been at my parent's house in Colesville *eyeroll*

If you re-rack the radar data from yesterday, it all started with those two cells in Cumberland that rode an outflow boundary out of Frederick. 

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15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If you re-rack the radar data from yesterday, it all started with those two cells in Cumberland that rode an outflow boundary out of Frederick. 

I'm not just saying this - but when I glanced at radar before leaving Colesville to head to my place - I had a feeling there might be a surprise in the works when I saw those lone cells getting going to the west. Had that trajectory/feeling of something that could propagate towards the metros. 

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