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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Euro looked decent East of lake Ontario with some embedded stronger bands on a west-wsw flow.. Timing is pretty good as well, Sunday night into Monday morning..

But you can see how marginal it is is lol I think the heavier precip rates are saving east of Ontario in these frames..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (43).png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (44).png

qpf_024h.us_ne (13).png

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I know what model I'll be rooting for ..lol

The rgem seems a little off with this one for whatever reason..I doubt you see that type of widespread snow on the backside...

Screenshot_20200124-073929.png

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Looks like the gfs trended towards the NAM, keeping the primary stronger for longer, quick surface reflection over NJ before the primary regains control.. Not that it probably matters much lol

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This one has decent bust potential as alluded to by freak yesterday..Not that it would take much as the forecast is for an inch lol

The European has 3/4" here on Sunday which is going to equal an inch because it's 33°..If we get decent rates we will do ok..

qpf_024h.us_ne (14).png

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6 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro looked decent East of lake Ontario with some embedded stronger bands on a west-wsw flow.. Timing is pretty good as well, Sunday night into Monday morning..

But you can see how marginal it is is lol I think the heavier precip rates are saving east of Ontario in these frames..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (43).png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (44).png

 

Look at the North Syracuse crew being trolled...

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3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Look at the North Syracuse crew being trolled...

Yea I'm guessing that's due to light precip rates..Nam is colder but with a "Westerly" flow most of the day Sunday/Sunday evening, precip may be lacking some, outside of the usual suspects, the tug..

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Here's to hoping for not much rain tomorrow, and perhaps we can get the lakes to cooperate for some good lake enhancement during the 2nd half of the weekend.

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Yes sir..

At the very least it should look wintry on Sunday and Monday with snow flying in the air..The next potential time period is way down the line, so this all we got for 10days lol Might as well make the most of it..

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

What do you Syracuse guys think? Do you think our snowpack will absorb most of the rain coming tomorrow?

It'll be cut in half at least. Temps near 40 and a half inch of rain or more...

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Temp is already up to 40° today, so I'm sure we will melt some before the rain even gets here..

The last 2 days the max temps have only lasted a couple hours, not so much today..

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26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Don't see this every day..

A nice stronger cutter day 8/9

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36 (2).png

I expected this to stay coastal on the modeling until Wednesday or so.  The cut is modeled early.

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I mean it looks like a big occluded low, and we have seen these modeled a couple of times.  Its pretty potent.  its also not likely verbatim.

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last week of GFS look good. 

Starts with next weekends storm...is that the storm to finally shake things up?

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22 hours ago, tim123 said:

That's just a cutter in disguise.

Good eye Tim, sure enough its a nasty cutter just a day later.  LOLz, this winter is just brutal.  

I've got my Whiteface trip next weekend.  Only half the mountain is open and things are trending in the wrong direction already.  Pure garbage.....

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