BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: This made me chuckle a bit! True, that is low for them. There are many areas on the Tug with grass showing, or very shallow base. I have met more and more people who have said they have given up on snowmobiling. They said the cost of upkeep and fees with such lousy winters lately isn't worth it. Yeah, all my friends have jet skis. They go out all the time on the lake from June-September. My inlaws have a snowmobile and it's so much fun being in the woods surrounded by trees full of snow. It's so peaceful. I snowboard and ski and get a similar feeling but with fake snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Canadian coming in with RAIN over much of Central NY... Low pressure well to our SE and we are still seeing rain in JANUARY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 What snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Canadian coming in with RAIN over much of Central NY... Low pressure well to our SE and we are still seeing rain in JANUARY. This is what happens when you have a trash pacific. Look at that PNA mid month. If the EPO doesn't save us we're talking record breaking temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Euro still has a nice size snowstorm Tuesday night/Wednesday.. Saturday system is a little to warm for CNY, few/several inches for wny depending on temps.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Euro still has a nice size snowstorm Tuesday night/Wednesday.. Saturday system is a little to warm for CNY, few/several inches for wny depending on temps.. I'm beginning to think the euro is correct...it was first to sniff out the low for tomorrow going south of us and the the GFS caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Actually looks pretty spot on to me for once lol. Think it’s gonna be too warm to really accumulate well unless you have some elevation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Time to start turning my attention to Monday lol Looks to be some enhancement east-ene of the lake.. I'll give it till tomorrow before it starts crapping the bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Hrrr has about 6 hrs of snow with this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Navy was one of the first (if not the first) to show this one going through NE PA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hrrr has about 6 hrs of snow with this one.. Things aren't adding up with this storm. The models have this changing to snow at 10am (or earlier according to the NWS) which just seems like a stretch with max diurnal heating occurring at that time and boundary temps in the mid 30's. I'm sensing a repeat of December 14th where we just couldn't get anything to accumulate. We really needed this storm to slow down by about 8-12 hours to have a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Things aren't adding up with this storm. The models have this changing to snow at 11am (or earlier according to the NWS) which just seems like a stretch with max diurnal heating occurring at that time and boundary temps in the mid 30's. I'm sensing a repeat of December 14th where we just couldn't get anything to accumulate. We really needed this storm to slow down by about 8-12 hours to have a chance. Yep. Try accumulating snow at that time, with those temps. So the 2” for Rochester becomes a big goose egg. At least we will see some flakes. This January looks to be a loss. So we take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 From Cranky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 It usually all comes down to precipitation rates, look at last event, sticking at 36-37 under heavy precip.. Hrrr has surface between 33-35 but rates probably won't get it done and the timing sucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 We better hope for some heavy precip rates lol We'll be lucky to see 2" at best from this pathetic system. It's a nuisance for everyone on this board but welcomed because of the lack of snow thus far. I'm honing in on next Tues-wed for a decent event. Cold air is in place as t hff e system takes shape along the TX panhandle and heads one but it's light yrs away, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Always gotta look at all the parameters. This will kill accumulation. Can it even REALLY snow at 37? 34 or below is when u have a chance. YuckYes, it can snow at 40F as well, but it will never accumulate, even on cars and grass, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Even worth only has a foot on the ground in the Tughttp://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htmTheres a HUGE deficit up in the Tug as theres really no need to even check stats on it cause after living here for over 15yrs, it becomes easier to track events and this yr, has been by far, so far the worst of the decade or so it seems. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Missing out on a decent event by 2-3 degrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Canadian coming in with RAIN over much of Central NY... Low pressure well to our SE and we are still seeing rain in JANUARY.Who cares anymore, really? Its certainly not ruffling any of my feathers as it's becoming the new norm or so it seems. I'd rather just forget Winter and head right to Spring but we all know that's just a pipe dream cause Winter will rear its ugly head sooner or later or perhaps will take off the whole season, which I will welcome with open arms as long as the cold doesn't arrive too late, lol. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 If we can stay at 33° or so I think we can see a couple /few inches, precip rates seem to be improving some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Rgem still all rain here lol Hi Rez Canadian is mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Continues to have that warm wedge into CNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Concern for heavy snowfall continues to revolve around the potential phasing of northern and southern stream energy somewhere along the east coast during Saturday. Guidance continues to feature a variety of solutions in both the amount of phasing, as well as when this will occur, not to mention the resultant surface low track. There has been wide variability leading to lowered confidence in the forecast, and a trend towards the ensemble means remains prudent. That leaves a surface low which will lift northeast through Pennsylvania before transferring to secondary low development south of Long Island. If northern/southern stream phasing can occur early on Saturday, this low may track into the Gulf of Maine, but the trend has been for a more suppressed solution as the dynamics eject east quickly, allowing the surface low to remain weak and push off to the east as well. Initially the thermals will only support rain due to a warm column, with the exception being northern New England, but as the low pulls away cold air will wrap back towards the coast causing a p-type transition from rain to snow. The amount of precipitation available once the column cools remains in question, and at this time most of the snowfall is forecast to be light to moderate, with the highest amounts confined to the terrain. WPC probabilities for 6 inches are 30-50% in the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites, with lesser amounts further to the south and at lower elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 The next system is all about timing once again.. Gfs insistent on missing the phase.. Latest icon also just misses it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The next system is all about timing once again.. Gfs insistent on missing the phase.. Latest icon also just misses it. Was just going to mention that...but...didnt the euro pick up on this being just a low end wave of low pressure 2 days ago??? If that's right then the tuesd Wed storm might be the euro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 This was the European on Tuesday and Wednesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Last night's run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 The top analog for tomorrows "event". Looks about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Euro has not been stellar this year and I defend it all the time lol Just yesterday it has 6" for LI, sure just a blip but no other model had that issue lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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