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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Ukmet has wrap around into Tuesday..

Obviously this is not all snow or rain..

It's funny, for a 9k model, euro sure has trouble showing wrap around/enhancement..But yet 12k-17k models have no issues lol

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012300_144_479_220.png

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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Ukmet has wrap around into Tuesday..

Obviously this is not all snow or rain..

It's funny, for a 9k model, euro sure has trouble showing wrap around/enhancement..But yet 12k-17k models have no issues lol

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012300_144_479_220.png

Here is precip up to midnight Sunday when the switch to snow is occurring..

Only 0.4-0.6" liquid..The rest is wrap around over the next 2 days..

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012300_78_479_220.png

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Beautiful winter morning this morning while driving to work. Sunrise of many colors with the blue-white snowpack. Had to savor it.

Have a good day, all!

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We need a rally...It looks like January at BUF will end up with very ugly winter stats.  +8.2 degrees for the month to date with 11.2" of snow.  Every day from now until the end of the month should be above normal.  Maybe not warm enough to push the departure up to double digits, but at least +5 for the month seems like a lock.  If we squeeze out a few inches of wet slop this weekend we still won't end up close to the normal 25" of snow for the month.  I don't know what happened...I thought we were guaranteed to have a colder than average winter because it snowed in southern Siberia in October...:thumbsdown:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Looks quiet once this system departs on Monday. Even though we are
entering into when we should be a climatological min for temps, we
will be far from it for this week as strongly positive Eastern
Pacific Oscillation (EPO) teleconnection pattern favors strong jet
pushing into western North America off the eastern Pacific which
keeps coldest air bottled up well to the north, across even northern
Canada. Weak little shortwave may bring some isold rain and snow
showers or sprinkles/flurries Tuesday, but looks dry otherwise in a
non eventful zonal flow. Yet another warmer system in the southern
stream lifting along the northeast coast late in the week will bring
the next chance of precipitation to the region.

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10 minutes ago, vortmax said:

We'll send some rulers over to BUF from ROC for this weekend's event. That should help.

They need a tutorial on slant stick measuring, lol!

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27 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

We need a rally...It looks like January at BUF will end up with very ugly winter stats.  +8.2 degrees for the month to date with 11.2" of snow.  Every day from now until the end of the month should be above normal.  Maybe not warm enough to push the departure up to double digits, but at least +5 for the month seems like a lock.  If we squeeze out a few inches of wet slop this weekend we still won't end up close to the normal 25" of snow for the month.  I don't know what happened...I thought we were guaranteed to have a colder than average winter because it snowed in southern Siberia in October...:thumbsdown:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Looks quiet once this system departs on Monday. Even though we are
entering into when we should be a climatological min for temps, we
will be far from it for this week as strongly positive Eastern
Pacific Oscillation (EPO) teleconnection pattern favors strong jet
pushing into western North America off the eastern Pacific which
keeps coldest air bottled up well to the north, across even northern
Canada. Weak little shortwave may bring some isold rain and snow
showers or sprinkles/flurries Tuesday, but looks dry otherwise in a
non eventful zonal flow. Yet another warmer system in the southern
stream lifting along the northeast coast late in the week will bring
the next chance of precipitation to the region.

image.thumb.png.055a7a8d0ba0a91a1093206b78af3f12.png:cliff:

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The GEFS break down the Alaska vortex around the Feb 4th-5th. Is a one shot and done or a pattern change? Too far out to know. But we will get some cold air around that date. Until then, the pattern favors strong synoptic development and a track near our region, but with no cold air it will all be elevation dependent.

 

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2 hours ago, 96blizz said:

Whoa. 

4116FDED-2225-4F31-9BAF-4BDF372CBD71.png

This happens and I’ll be stuck in st Lucia another day...

edit.  Too much rum. Thought this was for this Sunday. 

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This yr is coming real close to 2011-12 which was one of the worst Winters ever, especially for up here so they happen but they are few and far between, thank God!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

image.thumb.png.055a7a8d0ba0a91a1093206b78af3f12.png:cliff:

That extreme +EPO is just a winter killer. The AO is progged to stay positive and the MJO isn't helping either. Where's our SSW event??

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The low dewpoint, lack of sunshine, and frozen layer on top of the snow is really helping to preserve our snowpack. Hasn't really budged at all today. Might lose some tomorrow and with some rain on Saturday, but hopefully with some backside snows this weekend, and temps mostly maxing in the mid 30s next week, we might actually make it with a couple weeks of consistent snowcover.

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam says what secondary lol

Develops it quite late..

 

It's ridiculous how much these models jump all over the place from one run to the next. I feel like they have gotten worse. Or they just weren't engineered to handle all of the chaotic weather changes that seem to almost go against normal science.

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It's clear across almost off subs that there isn't much hope in any long-term pattern change. You can sense the overall "meh" many are feeling. Bummer.

 

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