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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Models have really started to trend more closely together in the
extended with very amplified ridging popping up to the east and
deep southwesterly flow taking shape over the area from the end
of the week right into the weekend. This will mean rapidly
warming conditions from Thursday into Friday. While this occurs,
moisture will be on the increase quite effectively as well. As a
result, the cold air in the CWA should evacuate with haste and
any snow/wintry mix at the onset of precipitation Thursday night
should transition to all rain by Friday.

Very high chances of rain continue from Friday into the weekend
as the upper pattern really fails to evolve over the area. With
a frontal boundary semi-resident to our west, we will remain on
the warm side of the boundary with southwest flow in place. A
couple of waves down the front will yield a couple of chances of
moderate rainfall into the weekend before guidances becomes a
bit less clustered by the end of that weekend. After that
juncture, some cold air may start to filter back in, but that
eventuality is far from set in stone at this time.

That whole paragraph makes me wanna puke and i'd like to puke on the Met who wrote this drivel as he sounds happy!
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12 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Models have really started to trend more closely together in the
extended with very amplified ridging popping up to the east and
deep southwesterly flow taking shape over the area from the end
of the week right into the weekend. This will mean rapidly
warming conditions from Thursday into Friday. While this occurs,
moisture will be on the increase quite effectively as well. As a
result, the cold air in the CWA should evacuate with haste and
any snow/wintry mix at the onset of precipitation Thursday night
should transition to all rain by Friday.

Very high chances of rain continue from Friday into the weekend
as the upper pattern really fails to evolve over the area. With
a frontal boundary semi-resident to our west, we will remain on
the warm side of the boundary with southwest flow in place. A
couple of waves down the front will yield a couple of chances of
moderate rainfall into the weekend before guidances becomes a
bit less clustered by the end of that weekend. After that
juncture, some cold air may start to filter back in, but that
eventuality is far from set in stone at this time.

That whole paragraph makes me wanna puke and i'd like to puke on the Met who wrote this drivel as he sounds happy!

You apparently didn't read BGM's discussion. It was just as delightful.

After the p-type issues/challenges are resolved and all the precipitation is in the form of rain,

the next area of concern will be the potential for locally heavy rain and runoff leading to potential flooding issues.

This time frame is still very far out, but there are some indications that our forecast area could see a prolonged period of relatively deep moisture advecting in with steady rain streaming north into the region.

Several inches of rain are possible Saturday before the cold air appears to arrives Sunday along with a drier air mass and a change back to snow.

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For tonight a mid level shortwave will aid in pushing a surface
trough across our region. Aloft a 170 knot W-E jet will be
strengthening over the Ohio Valley, with our region becoming under the
favorable lift of the left exit region of this jet. These features
together with moisture deepening with the passing trough aloft, will
develop a broad area of light snow. Timing this snow...the onset of
heavier synoptic snow will be around 7 pm tonight across far WNY,
and between 1 am and 4 am east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures aloft
tonight will drop to around -5 to -6C, not quite cold enough for
true lake effect, but there will likely be some lake moisture
enhancing snow totals to the east of the Lakes. Within a 6 to 9 hour
period of snow...several inches of snow will fall...with highest
totals just to the east of the Lakes. By later tonight temperatures
aloft will cool a few degrees such that the synoptic snows will
contract back towards the favored lake effect snow belts east of
both Lakes.

A glancing shot of colder air will likely add a few more inches of
lake effect snow through the day east of Lake Erie, while slightly
longer duration of cold westerly winds that will parallel the lake,
along with slightly better lake effect parameters will likely bring
several more inches of snow on the Tug Hill region...such that a
winter weather advisory will be issued. This advisory will start
late tonight to capture the initial synoptic snows...and continue
through the day Monday and into Monday evening where the better
snows under a lake effect snow band will fall. Here, over a 24 hour
period 5 to as much as 9 inches of snow may accumulate. Convergence
maximizes late tomorrow morning east of Lake Ontario and this is
when snowfall rates could reach 1"/hr. As the lake inversion heights
fall tomorrow afternoon (Lake Erie) and tomorrow evening (Lake
Ontario) and winds shift slightly to a west-northwest direction, the
lake effect snow east of both lakes will taper off

 

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
This will be basically the coldest portion of the forecast as
the main lobe of modified Arctic air wanders across the Lower
Great Lakes region centered around Wednesday. Before its arrival
via a moisture-starved cold front Tuesday night, a system looks
to have a near miss to our southeast on Tuesday, spreading
precipitation generally along the Middle Atlantic coast. We are
mostly sandwiched between this system and the incoming cold
front from our northwest. This comes screaming through on
Tuesday night with some snow shower activity. Fairly robust cold
advection in its wake and quickly steepening low-level lapse
rates that get the moist layer up into the dendritic growth
layer fairly easily will allow for lake effect snows to quickly
ramp up in WNW flow. This will favor the Chautauqua/Cattaraugus
and Oswego County areas for the main impacts, however lesser
snows will be likely across most of the south shore of Lake
Ontario, including the Rochester area.
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5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Steady fall of snow through the evening here. Everything is fully covered, actually looks quite wintry out for the first time in a while.  Decent radar returns about to push through as well. 

Yeah I just measured 2" and looks like a nice band about to move through. Went for a nice walk with the dog in it, felt great.

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23 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Could be...made for a nice walk with fat flakes pouring down. Probably going to hit 3” out of this. We’ll take it and run in this pattern. 

Currently at 30 degrees and moderate snow in Williamsville 2.1" so far...3 inches outside chance at 4...could be the highest we see for a couple weeks.

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