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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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Biggest difference between 93 and 96 is that in March 93 the entire east coast was on alert for a full week in advance. I can't honestly recall any storm before or after that seemed like such a sure thing. The only details to work out locally was how far west the mix line would get and how strong the winds would actually be. 

96 was a Virginia special until the final 48 hours. The storm arrived early Sunday morning, and it wasn't until later in the day Friday and especially Saturday that the models converged on a solution that would bring a high impact to most of the eastern 2/3 of PA. It seemed like with every new package the NWS kept raising our expected snowfall on Saturday. Friday night they were calling for 4-8" here and by Sunday morning it was 24-30". 

I ended up with 18" in 93 and 32" in 96. 

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Just now, tim123 said:

That was special. I remember such a long lead time for the 93 storm. 

That storm was the focal point on news outlets for the entire week before the storm. Never seen before or since. 

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Oh boy this is dangerous but what the heck.....

If one extrapolates the 12z NAM progression, you can see similarities of past weekend event.  Primary too far West and North, and no sign of transfer.  For this to work, it needs to be showing signs of that happening at the end of the run.  I'm not seeing it (believe me....I want to though).  Its a shame to see a 5 contour close LP at 500 "wasted" like that.

Mag, Blizz, Trainer, Bubbles....anyone....tell me what I'm not seeing

Mind you, I want everyone to know that I'm NOT saying I'm right, but I love for someone to discuss (which is what we do here) as to why I'm off my rocker.  

Take a peek back at Saturday NAM run for past weekend event and look at surface features.....it should raise an eyebrow.  

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38 minutes ago, canderson said:

Friends don’t let friends trust Miller Bs. But it’s been a while since e had a true one right - like 5 or so years?

#truth.

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Oh boy this is dangerous but what the heck.....

If one extrapolates the 12z NAM progression, you can see similarities of past weekend event.  Primary too far West and North, and no sign of transfer.  For this to work, it needs to be showing signs of that happening at the end of the run.  I'm not seeing it (believe me....I want to though).  Its a shame to see a 5 contour close LP at 500 "wasted" like that.

Mag, Blizz, Trainer, Bubbles....anyone....tell me what I'm not seeing

Mind you, I want everyone to know that I'm NOT saying I'm right, but I love for someone to discuss (which is what we do here) as to why I'm off my rocker.  

Take a peek back at Saturday NAM run for past weekend event and look at surface features.....it should raise an eyebrow.  

That's exactly what I see. As I said on Sunday there was very little that was enticing about this setup...admittedly I've already moved on from this weekend. While I don't think it's impossible to win it seems so unlikely that I can't allow myself to get attached (invested) enough on this one. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

#truth.

Miller B's are like seeing the hottest chick walking through the mall. You (okay, at least I) know that you have very little chance but man if you end up scoring it's a pretty sweet experience. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That storm was the focal point on news outlets for the entire week before the storm. Never seen before or since. 

Not a Winter Storm, but wasn't Sandy talked about for awhile ahead of time?

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5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Not a Winter Storm, but wasn't Sandy talked about for awhile ahead of time?

Yes, it was. Glad you mentioned that. Probably very similar in scope, coverage and time. Thanks! 

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Oh boy this is dangerous but what the heck.....

If one extrapolates the 12z NAM progression, you can see similarities of past weekend event.  Primary too far West and North, and no sign of transfer.  For this to work, it needs to be showing signs of that happening at the end of the run.  I'm not seeing it (believe me....I want to though).  Its a shame to see a 5 contour close LP at 500 "wasted" like that.

Mag, Blizz, Trainer, Bubbles....anyone....tell me what I'm not seeing

Mind you, I want everyone to know that I'm NOT saying I'm right, but I love for someone to discuss (which is what we do here) as to why I'm off my rocker.  

Take a peek back at Saturday NAM run for past weekend event and look at surface features.....it should raise an eyebrow.  

There's some signs of eventual coastal development, but it's hard to take stock in trying to determine what it will do...especially being the NAM at that range. It does show a 1036mb high just north of Maine, which is a bit stronger than the GFS and Euro. But otherwise it looks in the ballpark of the 6z GFS at 90. 6z Euro to 90 has the low more SE and is actually a stronger looking system. I'll be curious to see what the ensuing frames look like if the 12z Euro is still looking like that. 

ecmwfued---conus-90-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.df404dfab5b8f5f5e40b2691d943a398.png

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FWIW,  Z Germans make the transfer at 78, but the transfer is to southern tip of WVA.  Us LSV'rs need antecedent cold to over preform w/ that track.  Verbatim, LP does stay south, but its a nail biter, as it becomes an event that relies on heavy enough precip rates/dynamics to cool the column and support frozen.  Again, N and NE look to be in best spot as per ICON (believe it if you dare :P)

 

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes, it was. Glad you mentioned that. Probably very similar in scope, coverage and time. Thanks! 

I know i'm old and losing my marbles, but it seemed like we talked about Sandy for a month. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FWIW,  Z Germans make the transfer at 78, but the transfer is to southern tip of WVA.  Us LSV'rs need antecedent cold to over preform w/ that track.  Verbatim, LP does stay south, but its a nail biter, as it becomes an event that relies on heavy enough precip rates/dynamics to cool the column and support frozen.  Again, N and NE look to be in best spot as per ICON (believe it if you dare :P)

 

so you're saying there is a chance?

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10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

There's some signs of eventual coastal development, but it's hard to take stock in trying to determine what it will do...especially being the NAM at that range. It does show a 1036mb high just north of Maine, which is a bit stronger than the GFS and Euro. But otherwise it looks in the ballpark of the 6z GFS at 90. 6z Euro to 90 has the low more SE and is actually a stronger looking system. I'll be curious to see what the ensuing frames look like if the 12z Euro is still looking like that. 

ecmwfued---conus-90-C-mslpthkpcpk_white.thumb.png.df404dfab5b8f5f5e40b2691d943a398.png

Thats definitely a better look.  6z gfs is where part of my worry came from .  See below

gfs_mslp_uv850_us_16.png

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12z shows the energy diving in that wants to get us the transfer. but IMO its gonna be really close around here.  

Shows primary dying off a bit sooner and transfer is cleaner than 6z.  This IS a path to victory (for some).  This is also the trend we need to see in the coming days.  Sooner the better (transfer wise).  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Oh boy this is dangerous but what the heck.....

If one extrapolates the 12z NAM progression, you can see similarities of past weekend event.  Primary too far West and North, and no sign of transfer.  For this to work, it needs to be showing signs of that happening at the end of the run.  I'm not seeing it (believe me....I want to though).  Its a shame to see a 5 contour close LP at 500 "wasted" like that.

Mag, Blizz, Trainer, Bubbles....anyone....tell me what I'm not seeing

Mind you, I want everyone to know that I'm NOT saying I'm right, but I love for someone to discuss (which is what we do here) as to why I'm off my rocker.  

Take a peek back at Saturday NAM run for past weekend event and look at surface features.....it should raise an eyebrow.  

Buried under work today so just watching posts occasionally...,y input would not be one of having done any research at this point.  I looked at the GFS snow map to see what it showed quickly and noticed that, at least for central PA, the areas it showed snow were pretty close to the 0Z Euro but that is my only non scientific input for now :-)

 

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Larry Cosgrove weighs in...

 

In what seems like an eternally bearish energy trading environment, a beacon of hope for more widespread wintry conditions...

 

There are two issues to deal with for looking at the possibility of a back-loaded winter developing. One is the recurrent, broad, and strong subtropical jet stream, which continues to carry abundant energy and moisture from the equatorial regions into the western U.S. There is near-complete agreement from the computer schemes that this feature will eject three disturbances into the lower High Plains between now and Feb 5. The first, visible now on this satellite image, seems to be in the weak to moderate category. But the succeeding impulses look to have better dynamics to work with, and may trigger more and varied precipitation in the lower 48 states.

 

Then there is the matter of snow cover. Despite repetitive cases of milder-than-normal readings in North America, the snowpack remains resilient and has actually pressed southward. If the storm sequence mentioned gets stronger, cold air pooling over the snow will be pulled southward. You will note that the CFS and ECMWF weekly outlines turn mild West vs. cold East as we move deeper into February. Yes, those schemes have had their issues so far this season. But there are reasons for a cold finish to winter.

 

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2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Gem map was kinda grim outside of 2001kx area.

Well we know that isnt right then...:P

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Agreeing with @pasnownut the NAM is not our friend at this juncture....in the LSV.   Taking too long to transfer. 

Just got off conference call.  Not the "happy hour" kickoff we were hoping for.  Hoping its just the NAM WAAYYY beyond useful range. 

Ugh.  

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