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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Right, I am just discussing what the 18Z GFS showed.  If that surface or 850 reflection gets anywhere near Philly

1) We are toast snow wise.

2) It will leave our state disappointed which is the standard reaction of most who decide Philly should be on their vacation plans.

 

 

 

 

 

Hey, come on man, I love Philly. The city is great to visit. I also am a huge Philly sports fan as well !

Anyway, yes, the storm needs to stay on or just off the coast.

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CTP had a great forecast discussion tonight:

“Regarding the potential winter storm this weekend, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are more similar as of the Jan 20/12z guidance. Both show an upper level shortwave trough moving into the Pac NW on Tuesday and digging southeastward into the Great Plains/Mid Miss Valley Region by Friday morning. Both GFS and ECMWF now showing a weak sfc low along the Gulf coast by Friday night. As the upper trough moves across the Ohio valley Friday night and Saturday, the Gulf low rides up the East coast and deepens over the Delmarva, in class Miller B fashion. GEFS and ECMWF ens also support this evolution. A mix of wintry precip should move in to the area late Friday night or early Saturday morning and last until late Saturday night. Still some unanswered questions regarding ptype. Lake effect snow showers will continue on the back side of the low through Sunday. One of the important questions to iron out in the coming days is how cold the antecedent airmass is Fri-Fri night before the storm arrives. The ECMWF soln is still more amplified, and builds higher heights ahead of the approaching upper trough on Friday, signifying warmer temps aloft. Another question is how quickly the coastal low takes over and deepens. Quicker development of the coastal low would imply low level winds backing from SE to NE, supplying cold air at low levels during the storm on Saturday. This would mean more wintry precip and less rain. Quicker development of the coastal low could also translate to better frontogenetical forcing/banding on the NW side of the developing low, which would translate to heavier precip and some dynamic cooling. It will be a couple of days before we have these answers. As always, it will be interesting to see how the hi-res guidance handles these features as the event comes in range.”

 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hey, come on man, I love Philly. The city is great to visit. I also am a huge Philly sports fan as well !

Anyway, yes, the storm needs to stay on or just off the coast.

I lived there for 10 years so I guess I am just a bit jaded.  Nothing against the sports teams just not a great place to visit in my opinion when you can enjoy the country around Lancaster or can go to Pittsburgh and get the culture of Philly without the overbearing city life feeling.

 

PS-Let's Go Caps.

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

It looks looks like the 0z GFS struggled to close off the secondary low until mostly too late to bring good snow, except to areas in Northeast PA.

What are your thoughts on the run ?

Yea that's pretty much what happened there. It's my biggest concern about this system with the way things have gone storm track wise this winter. The deeper solutions that went under PA give all of us at least a half decent chance of something despite marginal temps but a late transfer would pretty much do in the threat for us. The good thing is that it's only Monday night on a Fri night-Sat threat.

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7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

It looks looks like the 0z GFS struggled to close off the secondary low until mostly too late to bring good snow, except to areas in Northeast PA.

What are your thoughts on the run ?

And yet the 0z Euro and Canadian both appear to give NEPA and especially areas southeast of the Blue Mountain the typical Miller B dryslot/screwsone...

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7 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea that's pretty much what happened there. It's my biggest concern about this system with the way things have gone storm track wise this winter. The deeper solutions that went under PA give all of us at least a half decent chance of something despite marginal temps but a late transfer would pretty much do in the threat for us. The good thing is that it's only Monday night on a Fri night-Sat threat.

It looks like the 6z GFS did the same thing with the late transfer, which was only good for snow in Northeast PA.

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Great discussion this morning from CTP. There is still lots of time & many factors to sort out. We are at least in the game.

“LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus in the medium range continues to be on the increasing probability for another weekend winter storm, though there are some distinct differences with this storm compared to this past Saturday`s event. T the main feature that sticks out is the presence and favorable track of a distinct and fairly deep upper low across Central or Southern PA, this track implies a one-two punch of warm conveyor, then cold conveyor-belt precip. Ptype will be an issue across the SE third to perhaps half of our CWA, while parts of the Central Mtns and most or all of the Northern Mtns should be cold enough for all snow. Furthermore, FGEN banding and briefly heavy snow rates are possible late Friday Night/Sat morning as the mid-upper low center passes and max UVVEL intersects the descending, favorable thermal band for dendritic snow growth. Max wet bulb AOA 925 mb is about 1-2C along and to the SE of Interstate 81/I-78 corridor in Southern PA, while it`s AOB zero further north and west. Sfc temps should range from the L30s across the north, mid 30s in central PA, and Mid to Upper 30s in the SE. This vertical thermal structure and the primary nose of the warm layer aloft (and PWAT above 20mm) staying just below PA will likely result in a wet snowfall across Central PA and portions of southern PA (between and after a few to several hour change to sleet. The resulting anomalous southeasterly low level jet and plume of Atlantic moisture overrunning a dome of cold/stable air east of the Appalachians justifies increasing POPs Saturday to 90-100 percent at this day 3.5 - 4 time range. The latest GEFS mean qpf ranges from 0.6 to 1 inch across the forecast area by Saturday evening. GFS forecast soundings imply mostly snow even as far south as the greater Harrisburg area. Despite the high confidence of significant precipitation, plenty of uncertainty still remains with regard to ptypes across the area based on slightly different sfc and upper low tracks. The primary surface low is progged to weaken over the Ohio Valley Saturday, as secondary low deepens and tracks up the Mid Atlantic coast in classic Miller B fashion. Quicker development of the coastal low would imply low level winds backing from SE to NE, supplying cold air at low levels during the storm on Saturday. This would mean more wintry precip and less rain. Quicker development of the coastal low could also translate to better FGEN forcing/banding on the NW side of the developing low, which would translate to heavier precip and some dynamic cooling. It will be a couple of days before we have these answers. As always, it will be interesting to see how the hi-res guidance handles these features as the event comes in range. Based on the latest ECMWF ensemble 850temps and GEFS plumes, current forecast is for a wet snow NW half of the CWA and a wintry mix across much of the remainder of the forecast area Friday night into Saturday.”

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

For whatever reason this upcoming storm has a Christmas 2002 feel to it, but that may be me just dreaming.

 

That was a true paste bomb here. I wish I still had the pics from it, but they were taken on a very shitty 1st gen digital camera so they weren't very good. I think we ended up with about 8 inches overall from that one in my backyard. We got about an inch or so of light snow on Christmas Eve, then it flipped to light rain overnight, and at about 9-10am Christmas morning it flipped back to heavy snow. Areas north of me and in a higher elevation never got above freezing and as such had major problems with downed tree limbs, wires, and prolonged power outages due to the heavy ice accretion.

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49 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like the 6z GFS did the same thing with the late transfer, which was only good for snow in Northeast PA.

The late transfer is always a concern for snow in central PA. I-90 has been the favored area for these kind of systems (not saying it happens here). It’s why sometimes I call central PA the Middle Finger because of how it gets skipped over from these late/too far north transfers. There have been winters pretty recently where the Middle Finger was in full effect. 

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That was a true paste bomb here. I wish I still had the pics from it, but they were taken on a very shitty 1st gen digital camera so they weren't very good. I think we ended up with about 8 inches overall from that one in my backyard. We got about an inch or so of light snow on Christmas Eve, then it flipped to light rain overnight, and at about 9-10am Christmas morning it flipped back to heavy snow. Areas north of me and in a higher elevation never got above freezing and as such had major problems with downed tree limbs, wires, and prolonged power outages due to the heavy ice accretion.


I remember driving from Selinsgrove to Lancaster during the height of the storm. I loved every minute of that drive.

My wife at that time was in complete horror.


.
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32 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

For whatever reason this upcoming storm has a Christmas 2002 feel to it, but that may be me just dreaming.


.

It's because I went all-in on the second hand. To make matters worse, I went all-in just after the flop. I'm willing this one into existence like that time the blonde with the fat jugs on Reno 911 willed her way into winning at the lotto. 

The only problem was: literally hundreds of thousands also won. 

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While I want this weekend to work out, as soon as i saw yesterdays midday runs start to delay the transfer a bit, i started to think we were out on this one.  Without a good solid source of cold air to force a transfer under us, there is no reason to think the flow wont stay progressive and transfer is too late for us.  A 1025hp 200 miles north of northern Maine does nothing to help block up the flow. 

Thats why when Blizz shared CTP's musings about the storm i started scratchin my noggin. 

 

In the longer range, it looks like pattern remains the same with decent storms every few days, but as the pattern is, we really need help from the AO/NAO domains to press the whole pattern south....otherwise...you know the drill.

I will say that looking at the morning ens runs, its hard not to like the looks.  We've been teased a plenty, so peruse with caution :)

 

 

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And FWIW I dont want to sound like a debbie, cause yall know thats not me.  The benefit, is that this storm is coming at us from a bit more favorable direction, and has more of a chance to score, but we can also just find another way to fail (a way we are all too familiar with when its a miller B).  MIller B's gotta be just right for the LSV.  We all know that.  Just trying to bring a bit of grounding into expectations.  North and Northeast crew should be lickin their chops.  

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58 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And FWIW I dont want to sound like a debbie, cause yall know thats not me.  The benefit, is that this storm is coming at us from a bit more favorable direction, and has more of a chance to score, but we can also just find another way to fail (a way we are all too familiar with when its a miller B).  MIller B's gotta be just right for the LSV.  We all know that.  Just trying to bring a bit of grounding into expectations.  North and Northeast crew should be lickin their chops.  

wasn't one of those 90s (93 or 96) storms a Miller B?

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The late transfer is always a concern for snow in central PA. I-90 has been the favored area for these kind of systems (not saying it happens here). It’s why sometimes I call central PA the Middle Finger because of how it gets skipped over from these late/too far north transfers. There have been winters pretty recently where the Middle Finger was in full effect. 

Yea I mean my big concern with regards to track is it ends up doing the whole miller-B process further north, with the primary getting into the lakes or something like that and setting up the I-90 corridor as you say. But that line of thinking is more reflective of how this particular winter has gone in terms of an overly dominant dose of storms to the lakes or tracking north of PA than overall C-PA storm climo.  It's not necessarily that back here gets skipped over so much as late transferring miller-b systems, or simply more progressive systems that transfer to the coast a lot of times will send in an initial wave of WAA precip that shuts off when the energy goes to the coast. The result being say, we get an advisory or low end warning snowfall from a system that delivers a lot more further east and northeast once it gets more wound up. That's essentially what the 0 and the 6z GFS did. The problem with this is the marginal temps. I think the central counties can work with this as is even with the GFS solution, but the Lower Sus Valley is going to need a more robust secondary development to get things cold enough. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I mean my big concern with regards to track is it ends up doing the whole miller-B process further north, with the primary getting into the lakes or something like that and setting up the I-90 corridor as you say. But that line of thinking is more reflective of how this particular winter has gone in terms of an overly dominant dose of storms to the lakes or tracking north of PA than overall C-PA storm climo.  It's not necessarily that back here gets skipped over so much as late transferring miller-b systems, or simply more progressive systems that transfer to the coast a lot of times will send in an initial wave of WAA precip that shuts off when the energy goes to the coast. The result being say, we get an advisory or low end warning snowfall from a system that delivers a lot more further east and northeast once it gets more wound up. That's essentially what the 0 and the 6z GFS did. The problem with this is the marginal temps. I think the central counties can work with this as is even with the GFS solution, but the Lower Sus Valley is going to need a more robust secondary development to get things cold enough. 

and i believe our lows are not going to be as low as originally thought  a couple days ago. so i think we're definitively warmer. 

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96

Image result for 1996 blizzard harrisburg pa weather map

 

@sauss06 we can get good storms from B's - and we have, but in truth the frequency is much more common for us, but our best storms IMO are like examples posted above.  Clean A's, triple phasers.  

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29 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

wasn't one of those 90s (93 or 96) storms a Miller B?

93 and 96 were Miller A's. Somewhat more recent big storms with some miller B type characteristics are the 2003 PDII and Feb 5-6, 2010 storms. Those two had surface low reflections just west of the Apps that transferred over, but obviously much better blocking and cold air in place. 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

96

Image result for 1996 blizzard harrisburg pa weather map

 

@sauss06 we can get good storms from B's - and we have, but in truth the frequency is much more common for us, but our best storms IMO are like examples posted above.  Clean A's, triple phasers.  

kinda made my heart skip a beat :rolleyes:

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

93 and 96 were Miller A's. Somewhat more recent big storms with some miller B type characteristics are the PDII and Feb 5-6, 2010 storms. Those two had surface low reflections just west of the Apps that transferred over, but obviously much better blocking and cold air in place. 

gotcha, thanks

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That's a classic Miller A to me. 

you are correct.  I'm sure someone can find the 500's from these storms and you'd see what a clean A orientation looks like.  

B's always have a transfer/jump to the coast as storms like to look for energy.  That jump is usually right over/around where we live.  When we have enough cold above, it creates a dome of stable cold air that the LP runs into (think of a wall), and gets pushed to the right (the next source of energy/food - Atlantic.  This forces the transfer to the coast and bombogenesis occurs and NE usually says thank you.  The stronger the cold mechanism above, the better the chance for a further south transfer, which alows the "new" LP time to mature and hit us.  Hope that explanation helps any that needed it.

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