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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12 gfs has a half foot of snow up this way friday night into Saturday before a flip then maybe ending as frozen.

With main low pressure over lake Erie and the secondary developing over land in SE New England why even bother.

 

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12 hours ago, greenskeeper said:

solid 0-6" event this coming weekend

Sounds about right, even the Euro spits out about 8" here tho not all is snow.

What we are seeing however especially in the ens is a weaker primary, less of a move into upstate NY (remember models had this into Quebec province a few days ago), and a stronger signal for a coastal wave developing east of the DelMarVa becoming the primary. Something to keep an eye on as the weaker primary and better redevelopment reflection is in response to the ridging up top which when we saw this in late Nov into early Dec killed the primary faster. Will be interesting to see how that feature plays out now in prime climo. Guessing many W of i95 and N of the m/d line see at least a few inches of pure thump snows before changing over IF these looks hold and dont morph into something completely different at 500mb. 

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The data on the 6z GFS looks like its giving us 1" liquid with 850s below 0 and the surface at or below freezing.  This is for ILG.

That is a shellacking.

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Mt Holly's early thoughts:

 

Quote
For Friday through Sunday...For a portion of this time frame, the
details are much less clear due to some timing differences in the
guidance. An eastward amplifying trough will drive strengthening low
pressure across the Great Lakes during Saturday. Meanwhile, cold
high pressure sitting over portions of eastern Canada and New
England will stretch down into our region before eventually
weakening. The setup looks rather conducive for a healthy
overrunning event. The low-level air mass is currently forecast to
be rather dry across our area Friday following the Wednesday night
cold frontal passage. In addition, a colder air mass will be in
place. There will be the potential for a wet bulb effect to occur as
precipitation arrives and the dry air initially in place may also
delay its arrival. This setup may also result in a slower warm-up at
the surface during Saturday. Much of the area looks cold enough for
a period of snow to occur before warming works in from south to
north. Given the surface low tracking across the Great Lakes and
then to New England typically leads to warming overtaking our entire
region. However, if a secondary low can develop off the coast that
may keep some of the low-level cold in place longer especially up
north. There is high confidence in a precipitation event occurring
late Friday night and especially Saturday, however the details are
much less certain. As of now, improving conditions should then take
place Saturday night and especially Sunday as the storm pulls away
although it will be windy in its wake along with colder temperatures
Sunday.

 

I like where we are at for being at day 5. Seems like a classic 2-4/3-6" snow before turning to sleet/frz rain and ending as light rain/drizzle. Finally a real winter storm to track this week!

 

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30 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Mt Holly's early thoughts:

 

 

I like where we are at for being at day 5. Seems like a classic 2-4/3-6" snow before turning to sleet/frz rain and ending as light rain/drizzle. Finally a real winter storm to track this week!

 

Agreed....and 5 days away still. Seeing better trends at 6z and already at 12z irt slp placement, hp placement and strength. Hoping we can trend to the better or remain stable and not back down leading up to the event. Tracking helmet and goggles on! :lol:

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Finally something to track, feels like it has been years...I must admit, yesterday had me hoping for a Blizzard in February and an early spring. 

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23 hours ago, RedSky said:

With main low pressure over lake Erie and the secondary developing over land in SE New England why even bother.

 

Should we still not bother? Whatcha thinking? :P

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Latest Wxsim for next weekend with 12z NAM/GFS combo - of course we don't shovel model snow!!

 Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet
 and snow likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill ranging from 11 to 18.
 Wind east-southeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10
 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on
 ground) accumulation 12 to 16 inches.

 
 Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight.
 Patchy light fog in the evening. A chance of a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and
 snow in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after
 midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging
 from 19 to 29. Wind south around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the evening,
 becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow
 or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain
 accumulation.

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41 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM all the way and its still 5 days away

Euro is a solid thump then changeover. The CMC and GFS are solid hits and trending to no flip to rain. Fun times ahead.

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18z was a small step back, bumped storm track NW a tad and and a kick in the groin to NJ. Doesn't matter GFS is laughable at this stage, and a long history now of exaggerating snow totals.

* but the GEFS pumped out some fantasy drama lol

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

18z was a small step back, bumped storm track NW a tad and and a kick in the groin to NJ. Doesn't matter GFS is laughable at this stage, and a long history now of exaggerating snow totals.

* but the GEFS pumped out some fantasy drama lol

 

 

 

 

Not sure what you saw but didnt appear as a step back to my eyes at all. Much deeper CAD that run and much less influence from a weakening primary. Gonna be messy this weekend.

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While I do not follow him some of his posts have been popping up in my Twitter feed for some reason. This seems to be along the same line of thinking as Larry Cosgrove.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

While I do not follow him some of his posts have been popping up in my Twitter feed for some reason. This seems to be along the same line of thinking as Larry Cosgrove.

 

 

Long range looks awful

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