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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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18 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

New England gets smacked. I hate living in New Jersey.

NJ has been getting an extremely generous amount of snowfall over the past 20 years.

Normal is like 20-30 for most of the state.

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That is an impressive convective snow band in the NAM. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and elevated TT’s. It will be interesting to see where it actually sets up.

CFDF3712-7677-45A9-97ED-9A65667D25D9.png.63ade7933fdeac71c06906b9dbb88089.png

566684B3-2C5C-4DAA-8AA8-D3163EB1F557.thumb.png.2a64f6d792807ec2997bb908c20acd3a.png

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2 minutes ago, Bosswx said:

Where would you go?

Usually Brendan T. Byrne or Wharton State Forests

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Subaru's are great till the heads start leaking. Then before long, it's on to the big scrap yard in the sky. I've owned one 20 years ago, and own one today. Just saying...

Oh, I know ;). Mine likes to eat wheel bearings. Haven't had the bad gasket yet, but it is gonna be replaced soon. It's either that or the Corvette :lol:

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Rgem continues the theme with the great banding for CNJ and SNJ . This run also clips NYC. Slp is further east on this run.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Rgem continues the theme with the great banding for CNJ and SNJ . This run also clips NYC. Slp is further east on this run.

Any maps yet? Thanks 

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Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Any maps yet? Thanks 

He probably got his info from a paid site. use pivotal weather it's free.  

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem continues the theme with the great banding for CNJ and SNJ . This run also clips NYC. Slp is further east on this run.

Yea it will be a condo crusher for someone. 

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3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Majority of NJ would get blasted if this were to come true. 

The temps are so marginal and the band likely won't be as expansive as modeled so those totals will be limited to small areas.  I would expect you'd see mostly 4-7 with isolated area over that 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
421 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

NJZ006-NYZ072>075-176>178-012230-
/O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0013.191202T1600Z-191203T1200Z/
Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
421 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
  York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain into Monday morning, changes back to
  snow Monday afternoon into early evening. There is uncertainty
  with the exact timing of changeover. These amounts potentially
  could be higher should the transition to snow occur earlier. In
  addition, there is the potential for a heavy band of snow just
  to the west, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.
  Should this band move over the advisory area, snowfall totals
  would be a few inches higher than forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
National Weather Service New York NY
421 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

NJZ006-NYZ072>075-176>178-012230-
/O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0013.191202T1600Z-191203T1200Z/
Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
421 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
  York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain into Monday morning, changes back to
  snow Monday afternoon into early evening. There is uncertainty
  with the exact timing of changeover. These amounts potentially
  could be higher should the transition to snow occur earlier. In
  addition, there is the potential for a heavy band of snow just
  to the west, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.
  Should this band move over the advisory area, snowfall totals
  would be a few inches higher than forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The temps are so marginal and the band likely won't be as expansive as modeled so those totals will be limited to small areas.  I would expect you'd see mostly 4-7 with isolated area over that 

I'm more in the camp of, if that band actually verified, with the overnight timing, it would probably overpower temp issues. For me it's more that the RGEM is probably overdoing intensity if anything. It's a delicate balance between the eastward pull that folks to the east are rooting for and the moisture that will be robbed as it continues to pull east and redevelop off the Cape. 

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