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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The final panel is the best one. Must be pretty strong consensus to have prominent anomalies d16. Overall you can't ask for a better panel for our region as the panel implies a good storm track and plenty of cold.  I hope all of Jan looks like this. 

500h_anom.nh.png

Looks like the agent of change this time is the strong ridging pushing onto the northwest coast. That starts D10 (Dec 30), so that’s our mark on the wall to see how timing may change. A few days ago, the pattern change agent was the TPV dropping south into Hudson Bay. 

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

here were 3 major east coast storms during the month. 

psu, are you aware of how the CPC  develops its 30 day forecast ?  I have not seen many issued over the years that go cold and above normal precip in our area for Jan. 

Is it a combination of fundamental long range forecasting along with modeling or a specific modeling program?

There does seem to be growing support for colder risks and storminess this Jan., based on the HL progression and tropical Pac improvements, including  several analogs. I have no idea the eventual outcome of the descending QBO for Feb and March. I believe though we broke the 2009 record for sunspots, as in spotless days last week for 2019 versus 2009. .     

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53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just need this to hold for 16 days and we are good...

What could possibly go wrong?

Well the Euro sniffed out the pac puke 15+ out.  This should balance the karma.  On a serious note, I can't see the TPV in that shot.  Where did it go? 

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The 87 winter was historic for the extreme cold into the UK and western Europe. Especially January. I am not really seeing that in the modelling. Does anyone know how those analogs are chosen? Is it computer based?

I should edit this by saying it was a crushjob for our entire subforum as well. I can remember bumper sliding for weeks on end in January here. The roads were solid ice for a month. That was my senior year of high school :)

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The 87 winter was historic for the extreme cold into the UK and western Europe. Especially January. I am not really seeing that in the modelling. Does anyone know how those analogs are chosen? Is it computer based?

I should edit this by saying it was a crushjob for our entire subforum as well. I can remember bumper sliding for weeks on end in January here. That was my senior year of high school :)

First or second time? 
 

B)

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3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There were 3 major NESIS storms during the period.  

  1. 19870121-19870123-5.40.jpg
  2. 19870125-19870126-1.19.jpg
  3. 19870222-19870223-1.46.jpg

the feb storm was wild.  extreme rates overnight that overcame a mild sunday, and knocked out power for days due to the heavy accumulation that stuck to everything.  wish some of the historical radars went back that far.  that storm is in the KU book as well.

the jan storms were more of the powder variety.

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