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Steve

“Let’s Talk Winter”

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2004 was an epic ice storm here in Newark...will never forget that storm for sure...what was more memorable then the ice was the fact we kept our power the whole time!

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'04 event 16" IMBY all snow, just 15 miles or so SE along I-71 was an ice storm disaster, my buddy who lived in Highland Co just 5 miles SW of Rocky Fork lake got all ice 1.5", took the local fire department 4 hours to cut all of the trees out of the his driveway and he was out of power for 10days!

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12z GFS depicting really the only way to get a shot of snow around here-w/ a clipper. “The Big One” would of course be nice, but the percentages are just too low. I’d take these clippers all winter long around here!  

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23 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Tell you what, we are scoring big time in the dense fog advisory category this fine December!:axe:

Was wondering how long it would take them to issue that. Very foggy here in Dayton.

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13 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Over or under for 12" of snow at CMH this winter? Literally nothing to track, unless you enjoy rain. Horrible so far.

The easy answer is under, BUT somehow, someway we always find a way to nickel & dime our way...I’m sensing another miserable “Spring”

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4 hours ago, dilly84 said:

Over or under for 12" of snow at CMH this winter? Literally nothing to track, unless you enjoy rain. Horrible so far.

Over definitely.  Like pondo said, we always find a way to scratch ourselves to near normal, and typically that happens in March and April.   It'll be another forgettable winter though.

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May have to change the title of this thread!!! Maybe change it to “Let’s just talk”:raining::gun_bandana:

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For the supposed pattern change upcoming after the 16th, it appears to be the same pattern in terms of storms for the Ohio Valley- rain then cold front and dry, then rain, cold front and dry.  Maybe the cold periods are colder and a bit longer, and there aren't record highs during the rainstorms (there will still be days in the 40s and 50s), but other than that, it's not looking that impressive outside of the areas north of I-80, which have been the areas that have had anything during the current pattern.  This is looking like one of the exception winters from the stats I posted earlier in the season, with January easily being well above normal in temperatures overall with well below normal snowfall.  I suppose that could change in February-March, but it's unlikely to save the season overall without a February 2010 kind of pattern.

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Hopefully by the 20th, things can at least begin having a chance. Another week of poo to struggle through as the pv becomes displaced into the eastern pacific................. I think December 20th to January 20th may go down as one of the worst winter periods I remember in the last decade for this region.

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On 1/11/2020 at 12:31 PM, jbcmh81 said:

For the supposed pattern change upcoming after the 16th, it appears to be the same pattern in terms of storms for the Ohio Valley- rain then cold front and dry, then rain, cold front and dry.  Maybe the cold periods are colder and a bit longer, and there aren't record highs during the rainstorms (there will still be days in the 40s and 50s), but other than that, it's not looking that impressive outside of the areas north of I-80, which have been the areas that have had anything during the current pattern.  This is looking like one of the exception winters from the stats I posted earlier in the season, with January easily being well above normal in temperatures overall with well below normal snowfall.  I suppose that could change in February-March, but it's unlikely to save the season overall without a February 2010 kind of pattern.

We may very well be going into February still with single-digit snowfall totals so far this season. Still sitting at a snowfall total of 7 inches as of December 16, 2019.

So far this month, only a trace of snow was recorded just a week ago. 

Dayton's Top 10 Least Snowiest Januaries:
1. None - 1944
2. Trace - 2020 (currently, as of January 4th)
2 (Tied). - Trace - 1933
2 (Tied). - Trace - 1932
5. 0.1" - 1989
6. 0.2" - 1923
7. 0.4" - 1916
8. 0.7" - 1950
8 (Tied). - 0.7" - 1919
10. 0.9" - 1908
 

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So through the first 11 days of January in Columbus

Avg High: 49.4 5th warmest on record

Avg Low: 34.1 7th warmest on record

Mean: 41.7 6th warmest on record

Snowfall: Trace 2nd lowest on record

Precip: 2.13" 13th wettest on record

Safe to say that January will end up above normal even with a colder 2nd half.  The pattern looks pretty dry after the mid-week rainer once it does get colder.  

Since December 1st, the records are very similar with temperatures running in the top 10 warmest winters on record.  

The 71 degree high yesterday was the 3rd highest temperature ever recorded in January and was a record for the day.

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Let’s see.... rain Friday and Saturday then cold and dry.... this pattern could drive one crazy!!:arrowhead:

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So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus.  It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950.  Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful.  Just an epic fail all around.  

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3 hours ago, jbcmh81 said:

So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus.  It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950.  Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful.  Just an epic fail all around.  

Up to a couple of weeks ago, (although I was clearly not optimistic for a good winter), I at least felt we would probably get enough chances to scrape ourselves close to normal by early April.    That hope is 100% gone and I think this could very well turn into a sub 12" winter.  It now 'officially' has that feeling.  I'm starting to think we might go from an above normal Feb to an all out Morch, (which I'd be fine with at this point).

  I know I bring up teleconnection indices a lot....but the truth is, they rarely let you down in spite of whatever the LR models are spitting out or Bustardi-style mets are trying to tell us using kelvin waves, strat warming, or the latest term of winter, (the Indian Ocean Dipole) lol.  Look at the AO, NAO, PNA, EPO, and MJO....especially the MJO and EPO and those are way more telling as far as I'm concerned. 

That being said, the teleconnections are almost as bad as they can be.  The AO, EPO, and NAO are all heading more positive than they currently are.  The MJO is now going from a brief trip thru6 into 7 and then into the COD with overwhelming agreement of exiting the COD into the warm phases.   I do think as we go through 7 late week, there is hope for another junk storm, maybe the one that is currently progged to be way north.....after that, it's back to garbageville and probably for most of the remaining winter.  

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Picked up a light dusting last night before getting pounded with a fair amount of sleet. Then a brief period of frz rain before the flood gates opened up lol.

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10 hours ago, jbcmh81 said:

So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus.  It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950.  Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful.  Just an epic fail all around.  

It really is hard to believe how many outlets got their winter forecasts wrong this year. The only two that got it right were Environment Canada and the National Weather Service, from what I can see.

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