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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

 

Don it is interesting that the Weather Channel through weather.com has October and November as being below average in the NE and December near to above. While Accuweather is going for mainly pleasant conditions . 

 

 

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-09-11-fall-early-winter-temperature-outlook-wsi

 

As winter begins, climate models suggest warmer than average conditions across much of the country. The Southwest will remain much above average, while the Southeast may be near or slightly below average.

It remains possible that signals from atmospheric blocking could outweigh any impacts from atmospheric El Niño, which would result in considerably cooler temperatures across the eastern half of the country.

In addition, an area of well above average ocean temperatures off the West Coast, known as the "blob," may also have an impact on temperatures across the country late this year.

"While the blob is but one factor this winter, the unusually warm waters in the northeastern Pacific do seem to correlate with colder winters" in the Midwest and Northeast, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. The blob typically is more impactful later in the winter, but could have some impact in December.

 

While Accuweather has the Fall advertised as mainly pleasant in the NE. 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-us-fall-forecast/70008922

 

AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said, “There are probably going to be people at the beaches for a longer duration this year compared to other years.”

By October, a cool down will be noticeable across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes, but it won’t signal any early wintry conditions for the regions.

He said, “I think the highest elevations of the Northeast will have the best chances for autumn snow as we get into mid-season, but I think we’re going to be waiting a long time for significant snow that’s going to stick.”

 

 

The most recent EPS monthly forecast calls for both a warm October and November. The CFSv2 has a near normal October (but has run cool in recent months) and a warm November. Until there are signs that the pattern will establish itself toward one that favors cold in the East, it's premature to have much confidence there. By late October or November, there will probably be better insight. For me, at least, it's too soon to try to make a winter call.

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Warmer readings will likely push northward tomorrow.

During the forthcoming week, Humberto will likely recurve away from the U.S. East Coast. It should have no impact on the overall weather in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -26.86 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.934.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°.

On September 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.397 (RMM). The September 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.591.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 61%.

 

 

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Next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.5[70.4].           Should be about +1.3[70.5] by the 23rd.

70.7* here at 6am.

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Very consistent pattern. Next big Canadian high with extended easterly flow arriving in a few days. Then maybe 90 degree potential for the warm spots in about a week as the Bermuda high flexes.

More easterly flow

9455DA3C-0C70-400E-8390-E78ABBA6C6A7.thumb.png.34732f29e7592a51f522c4ce22958a67.png

Next 90 in warm spots?

DD93AD0A-D336-4710-8BC0-BA51AE431C28.thumb.png.f5b068f58b58ccc1b971b9da479aa38f.png

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In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter last night he mentioned things could become active again after the 21st. He has concerns about the possibility of excessive rainfall.

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