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shaggy

Dorian

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5PM update keeps Dorian a high end TS after the islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 12.7N  58.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 13.4N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 14.5N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 15.7N  64.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 17.1N  66.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 20.1N  70.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.0N  73.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  31/1800Z 25.5N  78.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

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3 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Little ticks north in the models. Wouldnt shut Dorian out of our minds here just yet.

Big part of it was the fact the the eye reformed something like 75 miles further to the North of the old center today.

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Irene back in 2011 had similar jumps north in center location and the result was models shifting up the coast.....todays trends have certainly increased the chances of a more direct impact from Dorian in the Carolinas and GA......

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If this ends up healthy on the other side of Puerto Rico, that's when my guess the locals start talking about Hugo is since that was 30 years ago this year. It's an interesting one to track so far anyway.

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Irene back in 2011 had similar jumps north in center location and the result was models shifting up the coast.....todays trends have certainly increased the chances of a more direct impact from Dorian in the Carolinas and GA......

I don't think that Irene is the best analog here; different steering patterns. Matthew is a better analog in terms of "it's a storm rounding the edge of a ridge; and there's a chance the ridge doesn't shunt this thing completely into FL"

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1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:

I don't think that Irene is the best analog here; different steering patterns. Matthew is a better analog in terms of "it's a storm rounding the edge of a ridge; and there's a chance the ridge doesn't shunt this thing completely into FL"

Sure I was more talking about how both storms had center jumps north in the same area with the same general strength and organization.....latest GFS run not good for NC but it is a week out.....still looking like eastern and coastal NC might be in play though....

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

things will start to get serious here today.

i played the gas game yesterday so I’m starting with a full tank.  

have a feeling this goes in just north of me which will significantly lessen impacts but some of these tracks are my worst case scenario.

If you throw history into the equation, from your location southward would be a favorable path/hit; then the SC & NC coast as the next favored hit. From the central coast of Florida all the way up to the SC/Ga boarder tend to get spared direct hits from hurricanes.  

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

If you throw history into the equation, from your location southward would be a favorable path/hit; then the SC & NC coast as the next favored hit. From the central coast of Florida all the way up to the SC/Ga boarder tend to get spared direct hits from hurricanes.  

Last major (3+) strike was Hugo IIRC... 30 year anniversary this year

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7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Last major (3+) strike was Hugo IIRC... 30 year anniversary this year

Yep. I haven't watched the news in a couple of days thanks to mom flying over to visit, but I'm sure that kind of talk will start coming out today or tomorrow. She had great timing!

 

Might as well make a Sam's and Publix run today or tomorrow because I never replenished last year's supplies. It's entirely premature, but anyone taking bets on whether we'll have evacuation orders in Charleston County for a 4th year in a row?

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34 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

Yep. I haven't watched the news in a couple of days thanks to mom flying over to visit, but I'm sure that kind of talk will start coming out today or tomorrow. She had great timing!

 

Might as well make a Sam's and Publix run today or tomorrow because I never replenished last year's supplies. It's entirely premature, but anyone taking bets on whether we'll have evacuation orders in Charleston County for a 4th year in a row?

Ch 2 this morning is fairly confident that the storm is blocked and sent into Florida: https://www.counton2.com/weather/hurricane-central/dorian-expected-to-become-a-hurricane-by-friday-threat-to-the-united-states-increasing/

Still, I would get on that run early today. Just was in Harris Teeter in Mt Pleasant and they had water in the aisles and at the door. That is going to start making people unaware become aware. Watching the tropics is now on the forecast. If Dorian does indeed track here as the GFS legacy and operational show it is going to go from 0 to panic in a few hours time, and there won't be much time to prep and evac. It all seems dependent on the ridge. Lots of models showing Florida still as does the Euro, but GFS says Charleston. However if I remember correct the GFS doesn't always have a good handle on ridges which is the key factor here.

No reason not to be prepared starting today, I am advising my neighbors of the same. We'll know a lot more this evening, but so will everyone else. I track to be ahead of the masses and make pre-emptive decisions.

 

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Watching closely & paying attention..

SENC doesn't need another Floyd/Florence scenario again.. 

Then again, Maybe it'll wake Folks up about "Over-Building" in/around ILM.. 

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3 minutes ago, SENC said:

Watching closely & paying attention..

SENC doesn't need another Floyd/Florence scenario again.. 

Then again, Maybe it'll wake Folks up about "Over-Building" in/around ILM.. 

I was about to respond that if it did shift north and hit your area, it looks like it would keep moving (..less flooding). But take a look at the old GFS; it shows the hurricane running up the coast from Florida to SE NC, then out to sea where it stalls, and then starts to shift back towards NC. Not saying this will happen, but flooding for somebody is not off the table. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-legacy&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019082806&fh=6

 

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1 hour ago, scwxguy said:

Ch 2 this morning is fairly confident that the storm is blocked and sent into Florida: https://www.counton2.com/weather/hurricane-central/dorian-expected-to-become-a-hurricane-by-friday-threat-to-the-united-states-increasing/

Still, I would get on that run early today. Just was in Harris Teeter in Mt Pleasant and they had water in the aisles and at the door. That is going to start making people unaware become aware. Watching the tropics is now on the forecast. If Dorian does indeed track here as the GFS legacy and operational show it is going to go from 0 to panic in a few hours time, and there won't be much time to prep and evac. It all seems dependent on the ridge. Lots of models showing Florida still as does the Euro, but GFS says Charleston. However if I remember correct the GFS doesn't always have a good handle on ridges which is the key factor here.

No reason not to be prepared starting today, I am advising my neighbors of the same. We'll know a lot more this evening, but so will everyone else. I track to be ahead of the masses and make pre-emptive decisions.

 

Yeah I remember it ramping up pretty fast with at least one of the three that came by. This is stuff I buy every year and after hurricane season slowly consume so it won't be stale the next year or whenever it's needed. I should've bought all of it in July.

 

Also I need to getting around to tuning up the generator since the voltage output is a bit off. A lot of modern appliances have too much electronics and I'm a little reluctant to plug something into what's probably a pretty dirty power source. It's probably 35 years old. Any recommendations for a good replacement? If needed it would power a fridge and maybe a window unit or a (LED) lighting circuit or two at home. I'm an electrician among other things so wiring that up is not a problem.

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Not liking the models this morning. Usually a "hint" of a northward move turns into a trend. Someone said it great earlier and I think using Matthew as an analogue is fairly accurate. It all depends on the western extent of the Bermuda High. Forecasting where a storm will round that is one of the most difficult things in tropical forecasting. If this storm slows down it may allow time for the ridge to weaken, then the Matthew-like scenario plays out. I strong ridge sending a hurricane hurdling straight into the Florida coast, like seems to be the consensus on the main board, is certainly a possibility, but the modeling this morning has opened another pathway. A HP with some of the height rises the Euro is showing is certainly impressive and does bring back a setup similar to that of Hugo. Look at the globals for this morning compared to 18z last night and you will see 2 camps setting up... Also, I am on vacation in Nags Head next week so I'm sure it will come to NC... Also, at Duke, we are on storm activation as we have territory pretty much in every place this storm is taking aim at, so I may not have vacation regardless of track!

18z.png

12z.png

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1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

Yeah I remember it ramping up pretty fast with at least one of the three that came by. This is stuff I buy every year and after hurricane season slowly consume so it won't be stale the next year or whenever it's needed. I should've bought all of it in July.

 

Also I need to getting around to tuning up the generator since the voltage output is a bit off. A lot of modern appliances have too much electronics and I'm a little reluctant to plug something into what's probably a pretty dirty power source. It's probably 35 years old. Any recommendations for a good replacement? If needed it would power a fridge and maybe a window unit or a (LED) lighting circuit or two at home. I'm an electrician among other things so wiring that up is not a problem.

I ordered this off Amazon in 2017 ahead of Irma: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BBDCE1S/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s01?ie=UTF8&psc=1 I used it last year when the backside of Michael came through and knocked out power for a few hours. It's an inverter so good clean power. Also variable speed so only cycles up to demand. Seems to sip fuel and very quiet. Powered my fridge, portable AC and small electronics without any issues.

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Awesome, and it looks like it gets here Friday if I order in the next few hours. Looks better than the ones from Lowes/HD/Sam's on top of it, and it's definitely the right time to sell my old one.

 

I'll wait for the next update from the NHC before pulling the trigger but this looks like a strong buy.

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1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

Awesome, and it looks like it gets here Friday if I order in the next few hours. Looks better than the ones from Lowes/HD/Sam's on top of it, and it's definitely the right time to sell my old one.

 

I'll wait for the next update from the NHC before pulling the trigger but this looks like a strong buy.

It's also very easy to move around. Has a handle that flips out and the wheels are good. It is also very compact. Barely takes up any space in my garage. The ones at HD/Lowes are not nearly as nice and more expensive and huge!

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33 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said:

so yea the cmc while not exactly the same, shows a michael type hit here in the va piedmont, we here in danville have not recovered yet from last year so umm no 

 

Just moved to Virginia. Guess those of us in SW VA should keep an eye on Dorian.

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2 minutes ago, NRVwxfan. said:

Just moved to Virginia. Guess those of us in SW VA should keep an eye on Dorian.

Howdy neighbor! Welcome to the area. We'll certainly be keeping an eye on it here. 

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3 minutes ago, Disc said:

Howdy neighbor! Welcome to the area. We'll certainly be keeping an eye on it here. 

Thank you. Moved here from Columbia SC. It is a beautiful area, and a lot cooler than Columbia.

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22 minutes ago, Disc said:

Howdy neighbor! Welcome to the area. We'll certainly be keeping an eye on it here. 

whats your take on the cmc? its unreal that in the 3 plus years weve lived here since moving from naples, fl that we have had a remnant or storm every year...we had none in 7 years in naples lol. danville must hate me 

 

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1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

Looks like the generator is available for $300 off... but it doesn't get here until after it might be needed. Decisions, decisions...

Save the $300.  Better yet, don't even order one yet.  Lots of hype here as with all first canes of the year.  But modeling still shows a very small storm, might not even be a Cat 2 at landfall, and still showing a greater likelihood for a FL landfall.  Even if it recurves and stays just offshore you will be fine in Charleston.  I'd play the waiting game on this one.

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