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janetjanet998

7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 344 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CAMP RIPLEY,  
  OR NEAR LITTLE FALLS, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT   
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  LITTLE FALLS, PIERZ, LASTRUP, CAMP RIPLEY, MORRILL, BUCKMAN,  
  HARDING, GENOLA, HILLMAN, LITTLE FALLS AIRPORT AND CAMP RIPLEY  
  JUNCTION.   

The storm seems to be on the boundary with backed se winds....although I agree with you that it looks much more outflow dominated per the svr warning now.

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18 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Funnel cloud on a storm with no 0-3km CAPE, no surface based parcels and that's outflow dominant? I understand covering your bases and being safe but I'd probably call BS on a funnel report, even from a trained spotter, in the environment that storm is in unless I had a picture.

From a chaser stream:

snapshot2.jpg

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SPC backing off Tornado threat?

 

 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0353 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524...  
  
VALID 192053Z - 192300Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WITH A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING STORMS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
  
DISCUSSION...A EAST-WEST LINE OF CELLS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, IS  
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND IS LIKELY TO GROW  
UPSCALE AND TURN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
WHILE STORM MODE IS CELLULAR AS OF 21Z, BACKBUILDING IS LIKELY DUE  
TO AN INFLUX OF EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR, AIDED BY 35+ KT  
SOUTHWEST 850 MB WINDS. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE  
INSTABILITY GRADIENT, AND WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AND ACCELERATE  
WITH A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, A  
TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS OVER  
MINNESOTA, AND BEFORE OUTFLOWS EVENTUALLY MERGE.  

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4 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

From a chaser stream:

snapshot2.jpg

Super outflow dominant, looks exactly how I expected it would. 0 tornado threat with that storm. The one to the east however, is working on becoming surface based. It could produce, but strength/longevity of any tornado may be precluded by more linear convection developing to the south and west.

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 typical with these set ups with extreme instability this time of year..storms aren't totally surface based and become outflow dominated....

 

supercell composite up to 64...but it looks like the true warm sector capped 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Storm spotters report funnel cloud 11 miles east of Little Falls, MN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
412 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

MNC097-192130-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190719T2130Z/
Morrison MN-
412 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON COUNTY...

At 411 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Pierz, or 17 miles east of Little Falls, moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Pierz, Lastrup, Buckman, Genola and Hillman.

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pretty much sums it up

 

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
411 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
  
MAIN CONCERN TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY   
PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
ONE OF THE MORE IMPRESSIVE PARAMETER SPACES YOU'LL SEE IN JULY EXISTS   
OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR STORMS HAVE   
DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE   
BEEN UNABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND TAP INTO THIS MORE-   
FAVORABLE AIR. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS   
AROUND 80 EXIST PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 ACROSS MN AND   
WI, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER FROM   
CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF WARMING SO FAR.   
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND   
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG, ALONG WITH   
SPRING-LIKE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60 KTS THANKS TO AN   
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUMMER JETSTREAK OF 130+ KTS CENTERED OVER   
MANITOBA. THESE PARAMETERS EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND WE'RE   
ALREADY SEEING A FEW ALREADY TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN   
ORTONVILLE TO MORA LINE. SO FAR, THESE SUPERCELLS HAVE REMAINED   
ELEVATED IN THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH AND HAVE THUS  
ONLY CARRIED A LARGE HAIL THREAT, WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF GOLF-   
BALL SIZED OR LARGER HAIL. SHOULD THESE STORMS BECOME SURFACE-   
BASED AS THEY HEAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO   
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE   
SURFACE ARE CREATING FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-1   
SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF 15-20  
KTS BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES. IN   
ADDITION TO THIS TORNADO THREAT, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING   
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THIS   
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT   
REMAINS UNCERTAIN OWING TO A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE AT 700 MB.   
OUR 18Z SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING SHOWED 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14.1 C  
WHICH WOULD NORMALLY WOULD EASILY BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS   
CONVECTION FROM FORMING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AT  
THE SURFACE AND A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA, A   
CONDITIONAL (YET SMALL) THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS DOES EXIST FROM   
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL   
WISCONSIN.   
  

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Holy crap :o

 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
428 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

MNC115-WIC013-192200-
/O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-190719T2200Z/
Pine MN-Burnett WI-
428 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PINE AND SOUTHWESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...

At 425 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous severe thunderstorm
was located over Henriette, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Pine City, Hinckley, Rock Creek, Grantsburg, Trade Lake, Brook Park,
Henriette, Branstad, Randall, Falun, Greely, Phantom Lake,
Chengwatana State Forest, Saint Croix State Park, Four Corners, West
Rock, Alpha, Trade River, Beroun, and Yellow Lake.

This also includes interstate 35 between Rush City and Hinckley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Minnesota...and northwestern Wisconsin.

This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4572 9287 4573 9285 4573 9314 4598 9314
      4598 9305 4606 9305 4595 9239 4573 9247
      4573 9253 4564 9253 4564 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 295DEG 41KT 4584 9304

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...90MPH

 

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

got to watch the tail  end Charles (storms on the SW flanks) if they can remain discrete and hook 

Much higher chance of becoming surface based.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MNC025-WIC095-192215-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0120.190719T2133Z-190719T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
433 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The National Weather Service in The Twin Cities has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Chisago County in east central Minnesota...
  Northwestern Polk County in northwestern Wisconsin...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 433 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rock Creek,
  or near Pine City, moving southeast at 40 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  northern Chisago and northwestern Polk Counties, including the
  following locations... Harris, Rush City Airport, Wolf Creek,
  Cushing and Wild River State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Minnesota...and northwestern Wisconsin.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4545 9261 4564 9314 4573 9314 4573 9285
      4564 9288 4565 9253 4572 9253 4573 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 294DEG 34KT 4577 9298

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...80MPH

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
436 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

MNC115-WIC013-192200-
/O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-190719T2200Z/
Pine MN-Burnett WI-
436 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PINE AND SOUTHWESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...

At 434 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous severe thunderstorm
was located over Rock Creek, or near Pine City, moving southeast at
50 mph.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. Golf ball size hail was reported just
         north of Henriette at 430 PM CDT.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses
         will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect
         extensive tree damage and power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Pine City, Hinckley, Rock Creek, Grantsburg, Trade Lake, Brook Park,
Henriette, Branstad, Randall, Falun, Greely, Phantom Lake,
Chengwatana State Forest, Four Corners, West Rock, Alpha, Trade
River, Beroun, Yellow Lake, and Saint Croix State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Minnesota...and northwestern Wisconsin.

This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows!

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13 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Much higher chance of becoming surface based.

There are two weak rotations near Princeton, MN, possibly proving your point.

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file this day under "tornado potential not fully realized"

SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 192215   
WIZ000-192345-  
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0515 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 192215Z - 192345Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WILL TRANSITION INTO BOWING SEGMENTS LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON. EXPECT INTENSE BOW TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE  
NEEDED SOON.  
  
DISCUSSION...EARLIER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN  
HAVE BEGUN TO TRANSITION INTO BOWING CLUSTERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE LAST  
HOUR OR SO, WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY APPARENT IN THICK HCR/CLOUD  
STREET CU FIELD STREAMING INTO ONGOING CONVECTION. PRESSURE FALLS TO  
THE SOUTHEAST OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WI OVER THE  
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE RESULTED IN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW  
LEVEL INFLOW AND CONVECTION HAS STARTED DEVELOPING INTO THIS INFLOW.  
2-6 KM LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8 C/KM ARE AIDING IN LARGE HAIL  
POTENTIAL AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2+ INCH HAIL HAVE ALREADY BEEN  
REPORTED. THIS HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS,  
BUT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS INTO A BOW  
ECHO, THE HAIL THREAT WILL DIMINISH SOME WITH AN INCREASING THREAT  
FOR DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH UPPER 70S  
TO LOW 80S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A 40-50 KT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY  
LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING, SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT  
(POSSIBLY EVEN GREATER THAN 80 MPH).   
  
IN ADDITION TO INTENSE WIND POTENTIAL, QLCS TORNADOES THROUGH  
MESOVORTEX PROCESSES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. REGION VWP WIND PROFILES  
SHOW ENHANCED VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WITH MESOANALYSIS  
INDICATING A LARGE AREA OF EFFECTIVE SRH GREATER THAN 250 M2/S2  
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST STORM TRACK BRINGS THE LEAD  
SUPERCELL/BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS SAWYER COUNTY WI TO THE EDGE OF WW  
524 BY 23Z AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE NEED ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.  
  
..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/19/2019  

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impressive

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
524 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0514 PM     TSTM WND GST     CUSHING                 45.57N 92.65W  
07/19/2019  M84 MPH          POLK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            ALSO SUSTAINED WIND 73 MPH FOR 5 MINUTES.  

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The very rare PDS T-storm watch..

why so very rare? I think some forecasters would just make this a tornado watch (says likely tornadoes)...others this extremely strongly worded blue box...

 

 

 

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 525  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
550 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN  
  LAKE MICHIGAN  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 550  
  PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 105  
    MPH EXPECTED  

  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY  
  
SUMMARY...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CLUSTER IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN IS  
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING BOW ECHO THAT WILL ACCELERATE  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THIS  
EVENING.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SWATHS OF HIGH-END,  
DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 MPH.  TORNADOES  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS, AS WELL AS LARGE  
HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  

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I hope this doesn't turn southeast once it gets here, we have been absolutely slammed since I came into work. Over 1.50" of rain 2 instances of hail 3/4" each time, and a new severe warning to my north moving SE at 20 with more wind and hail.

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That complex in NW Wisconsin looks to have the right blinker on, even Madison and Milwaukee may be in its sights if it can maintain in this high instability environment.

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That’s the highest wind speed I’ve ever seen listed for an SPC watch. Saw on twitter the only other instance we could find was May 31, 1998.

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Just now, DanLarsen34 said:

That’s the highest wind speed I’ve ever seen listed for an SPC watch. Saw on twitter the only other instance we could find was May 31, 1998.

That one came barreling through at night here as well, even though I don't personally remember it (for you folks in Madison too).

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Absolutely amazing PDS svr storm watch....but I worry that it will turn more se than progged and move to Madison and Milwaukee then possibly down the lake as occasionally happens rather than moving east to Green Bay.  Will have to watch that western most cell in the developing line which seems to be moving more southward.

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13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I hope this doesn't turn southeast once it gets here, we have been absolutely slammed since I came into work. Over 1.50" of rain 2 instances of hail 3/4" each time, and a new severe warning to my north moving SE at 20 with more wind and hail.

The strong se component to the storms would seem to favor a track maybe in the Milwaukee grand rapids corridor. I know the models that have been showing the bow racing east across the southern up and northern lower are going to be completely off

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12 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

That’s the highest wind speed I’ve ever seen listed for an SPC watch. Saw on twitter the only other instance we could find was May 31, 1998.

I have seen many 90's....don't recall a 105 or even 100

I wonder why they went with 105 anyway?  rather the a nice even  number like 100

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they did hint in the 1630 and 2000 dicsussions about saying straight up a derecho threat. so, with the reports we're getting and the environment we're dealing with, this seems right if you're emphasizing a derecho with potential spinups on the front edge compared to supercells that could also gust quite high. I think it's appropriate wording for the threat.

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