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Is next winter looking like a disaster?

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2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Losing the northeast Pacific blob sucks.

 

2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

No, actually what we are seeing is most likely a good thing. 

Below we have current SST's in the PAC. Notice the cold pool in the central/western Pac. This cold pool is surrounded by a horseshoe of warm water around Alaska, down the coast to Mexico and into the central PAC. This is actually getting close to an optimal look for the east coast. We will probably see this cold pool expand in the coming weeks. Though we might see some expansion towards the east my money is on us seeing that expand west to off the coast of Japan. This is a good look for us. Now I circled the ENSO region. Notice we are pretty much looking at a neutral state at this point, possibly moving towards a Nina. I will explain shortly why I am bringing that up.

 

PACSST.gif.486c513f65886c62d774bc9713714755.gif

 

Now below I have the different PDO states. The positive which is similar to what we are seeing with the current SSTs and the negative which is the polar opposite. The positive is the one we are searching for as we tend to see the heights set up in a favorable location to see dumps of cold into the central US and move eastward (-EPO/+PNA). This results in a cold east. The negative on the other hand tends to raise heights farther west off the coast and send the cold shots into the west, move them into the central US and then withdraw them before they get into the east. So what we see is a warm SE and normal temps in the NE.

 

279974109_PDOstates.gif.ffa3d502506037f2404a64db2c8ff7d6.gif

 

Below is a much clearer representation of a +PDO. Notice that we have a much more expansive cold pool and that it is riding up into Japan an eastern Asia. We also have the horse shoe of warm anomalies surrounding it. This is the look we are probably shooting for.

 

PLUSPDO.gif.014686902b43b2269f7593d18f19d110.gif

 

Now as you have seen I have circled the ENSO region on all the maps. Notice what is missing on the current SST map compared to the textbook horseshoe +PDO? A Nino, as we are currently seeing a neutral. So what does that tell us? That we are probably still seeing Nino forcings in the Pacific as we head through fall into winter. We continue to see that cold pool, hopefully expanding somewhat and we are good to go knowing that the PAC will probably cooperate. On the other hand, we see that diminish/disappear and we know that we are losing the Nino forcings and will have to depend on other areas (NAO, AO, etc...) to compensate.

Ninoforcings.thumb.gif.aeb2508bc6a7f5520c19193c9f1767ba.gif

 

 

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19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

his is a good look for us. Now I circled the ENSO region. Notice we are pretty much looking at a neutral state at this point, possibly moving towards a Nina. I will explain shortly why I am bringing that up.

Some interesting things now as far as the IOD and the negative and decling trend of the SOI. 

Seems like a Nino background state continues.  Also of note,  the Summer look at 500 of a typical Nino signature. A nice match. 

Will be a very interesting Fall to track the way things progress. By the way, as pointed out by bluewave a couple weeks ago,  the warm blob was a new record, much warmer than it ever was back in the previous two upward peaks.   

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

Some interesting things now as far as the IOD and the negative and decling trend of the SOI. 

Seems like a Nino background state continues.  Also of note,  the Summer look at 500 of a typical Nino signature. A nice match. 

Will be a very interesting Fall to track the way things progress. By the way, as pointed out by bluewave a couple weeks ago,  the warm blob was a new record, much warmer than it ever was back in the previous two upward peaks.   

Getting the PAC to cooperate is a good deal of the battle as it is much more forgiving when it comes to our snow chances. If we are bucking the PAC then we are counting on so many other things to go right for our chances. Doesn't mean we can't score, because we have, it just means we are playing with a stacked deck and the dealer is holding all the cards. That said I am liking what I am seeing despite the ENSO state that looks as if it is flirting with Nina status. Climate models seem to be coming on board as well to a cooperative Pac.

But it is still early and we saw how last year went. Everything looked golden early on with the potential for a blockbuster winter where we were going to get cooperation from all areas. But the PAC for the most part baled on us though it had some brief moments where it cooperated. Also we only had brief periods of cooperation from the NAO and the AO despite the promise there as well. And then we had meltdowns board wide. :) One thing to note, if I remember correctly, the only time we scored was when the PAC cooperated. Just goes to show how important that feature is.

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Getting the PAC to cooperate is a good deal of the battle as it is much more forgiving when it comes to our snow chances. If we are bucking the PAC then we are counting on so many other things to go right for our chances. Doesn't mean we can't score, because we have, it just means we are playing with a stacked deck and the dealer is holding all the cards. That said I am liking what I am seeing despite the ENSO state that looks as if it is flirting with Nina status. Climate models seem to be coming on board as well to a cooperative Pac.

But it is still early and we saw how last year went. Everything looked golden early on with the potential for a blockbuster winter where we were going to get cooperation from all areas. But the PAC for the most part baled on us though it had some brief moments where it cooperated. Also we only had brief periods of cooperation from the NAO and the AO despite the promise there as well. And then we had meltdowns board wide. :) One thing to note, if I remember correctly, the only time we scored was when the PAC cooperated. Just goes to show how important that feature is.

Last winter the Nino was ill defined and the high amplitude MJO overwhelmed it's typical impacts on the atmosphere. Normally in a legit Nino, especially a Modoki, a western US ridge(+PNA) is favored. So it all sort of falls in line on the Pac side. That never really happened last winter. The majority of the time there were multiple elements completely out of sync. It really was a mess and the LR models stunk it up with all the epic pattern false advertisement. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Last winter the Nino was ill defined and the high amplitude MJO overwhelmed it's typical impacts on the atmosphere. Normally in a legit Nino, especially a Modoki, a western US ridge(+PNA) is favored. So it all sort of falls in line on the Pac side. That never really happened last winter. The majority of the time there were multiple elements completely out of sync. It really was a mess and the LR models stunk it up with all the epic pattern false advertisement. :lol:

Okay, let's quite talking about last year. I am still butt hurt from the whole thing and don't want to discuss it anymore. :(

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12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

But the PAC for the most part baled on us though it had some brief moments where it cooperated.

The December + SOI should have been taken as a warning sign that the pathetic Nino was needing some Viagra . But, like most, I too believed in the seasonal models and the weeklies. 

Of note as well was the high amp MJO in the warmer phases, just an out of syn winter.   

Another hallmark last winter was the raging Pac jet that set several records.  

 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Okay, let's quite talking about last year. I am still butt hurt from the whole thing and don't want to discuss it anymore. :(

Well since my yard failed every possible way imaginable, I have no problem not talking about it.:yikes:

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I am still butt hurt from the whole thing and don't want to discuss it anymore. :(

I too reflected on last winter here, sorry to bring it up.....  I need therapy..... :-)   Now on to the chase..... 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

I too reflected on last winter here, sorry to bring it up.....  I need therapy..... :-)   Now on to the chase..... 

Anybody that follows winter in the Mid-Atlantic needs therapy. Heck, it's almost as bad as following tropical. :D

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Okay, let's quite talking about last year. I am still butt hurt from the whole thing and don't want to discuss it anymore. :(

I hear ya...but, seeing as last year's disaster threw all of the models that failed (and that we usually rely on) into doubt...it's kinda hard not too! Man I got trust issues with all them seasonal models now, lol (maybe they just don't work in weak Niños!) I hope they work better in neutrals...because last year was just...awful. Hope in the future the science/technology can avoid screwing it up that badly!

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hear ya...but, seeing as last year's disaster threw all of the models that failed (and that we usually rely on) into doubt...it's kinda hard not too! Man I got trust issues with all them seasonal models now, lol (maybe they just don't work in weak Niños!)

It's just one tool to use. Sometimes they do well, sometimes not so much. You really need to look at everything and form an opinion and not just one tool. 

That said, IMO the climate models did very well two years ago especially the CanSips. But we were talking a Nina at the time and it behaved like a Nina and not a Nino that didn't act like a Nino that we saw this past year. So take from that what you will.

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7 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Anybody that follows winter in the Mid-Atlantic needs therapy. Heck, it's almost as bad as following tropical. :D

Either that or moving north :ph34r:

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5 hours ago, Fozz said:

Either that or moving north :ph34r:

After our vacation this summer Maine has now hit the top of the list in two years when we move. Couple of hours inland off the coast where property values drop a good bit is where we are now considering. Other consideration is the Laurel Highlands (western Pa) where the higher elevations average over a 100 inches a year (had over 300 hundred inches just a few years ago). The laurels also are only 1 1/2 hours out from my wife's childhood home so she has quite a bit of family and friends there. But they don't have a shore line like Maine does and we both love the ocean. Probably come down to general overall taxes and cost of living when all is said and done.

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SOI continues to stay negative and today broke recent trend line 

 

Average SOI for last 30 days -7.80
Average SOI for last 90 days -7.03
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -20.92

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3 hours ago, frd said:

Crazy stuff at the South Pole and in general the SH SSWE 

 

 

 

It's been a really "neutralizing time".. not really surprising. I'd expect a warmer than average Fall. At least we have Fall, that starts on like Aug 31 lol. 

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Roughly 2 months until we can start to somewhat realistically follow our snow chances especially in the favored areas. Sorry @C.A.P.E.that doesn't include you. :(

I am fully aware of, and completely realistic about the snow climo in my yard. Unlike many. :yikes:

This doesn't necessarily preclude me from bitching, and ofc I am a bitter man. I give credit to that dude from RVA for identifying that trait. He saw right through my act, when the rest of you were clueless.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am fully aware of, and completely realistic about the snow climo in my yard. Unlike many. :yikes:

This doesn't necessarily preclude me from bitching, and ofc I am a bitter man. I give credit to that dude from RVA for identifying that trait. He saw right through my act, when the rest of you were clueless.

Was that the person who was asking why there was a winter thread started in August/September for the Mid-Atlantic?

Also, Don’t worry, first winter will be here soon for RVA, then second summer.

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1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

Was that the person who was asking why there was a winter thread started in August/September for the Mid-Atlantic?

Also, Don’t worry, first winter will be here soon for RVA, then second summer.

I don't think so.

It was during the storm last December.

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37 minutes ago, frd said:

Wonder about the association with the min and the implications 

A solar min would be associated with low geomagnetic activity I believe, which can favor a weaker PV. Keep an eye on the QBO. Lets see if it can continue to trend towards neutral over the next couple months, then into negative territory. All of that together should increase the chances of a -AO for winter.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Wonder about the association with the min and the implications 

 

 

Well I mean...with this particular stat, ya gotta hope there's no correlation--because none of those years except 2009 preceded good winters, lol

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57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well I mean...with this particular stat, ya gotta hope there's no correlation--because none of those years except 2009 preceded good winters, lol

Just one piece of the puzzle.  Seem as though we still not have reached the min bottom yet. 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

Just one piece of the puzzle.  Seem as though we still not have reached the min bottom yet. 

Oh yeah? (and how will they know  Huh...Keep wondering whether we benefit this winter or the next! (results seem to be mixed...and there were a couple times where we didn't benefit much. But the last three times, we have!)

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah? (and how will they know  Huh...Keep wondering whether we benefit this winter or the next! (results seem to be mixed...and there were a couple times where we didn't benefit much. But the last three times, we have!)

There is research on the topic ,  sometimes it is discovered that the min has already occurred.  I read that there is a benchmark piece of data that lends rather robust proof as to the forecasting point of the solar min.  

Predicting the bottom is not as easy as many folks think. 

There are even studies of the effect of the solar min on the NAO region and I believe even the ocean SSTs and weather implications in the NW Atlantic.

This winter will be a tough one to forecast.  Hey, aren't they all.

Beware of years like last year,  where the consensus and group think were proven wrong, machines included.  

 

 

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