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OKStorm

MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

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PDS warning issued... large and extremely dangerous tornado over Hamlin, TX

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
959 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Jones County in west central Texas...
  Northeastern Fisher County in west central Texas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 959 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
  over Hamlin, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  northwestern Jones and northeastern Fisher Counties, including the
  following locations... Hitson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

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The surface low has been just hanging around in SW New Mexico.  None of the models forecasted this this late.  It's finally progressing and deepening.  How and when it hooks around the upper level energy is yet to be seen.  But it seems like it's FINALLY going to try.  

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

PDS warning issued... large and extremely dangerous tornado over Hamlin, TX

Haters will be haters but I'm telling you from experience a PDS warning at night is 100 times more scary, and deadly, than a Cat5 coming.  Seriously.

 

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My informal measure for severe outbreaks is unusually low-elevation or unusually far south in New Mexico. Quemado, Santa Fe, Taos, Gallup, Grants, Zuni Pueblo all had snow today - some record late accumulating snowfalls were reported, so I wouldn't give up on the tornado outbreak yet, the lows this Spring have been extraordinary.

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Just now, raindancewx said:

My informal measure for severe outbreaks is unusually low-elevation or unusually far south in New Mexico. Quemado, Santa Fe, Taos, Gallup, Grants, Zuni Pueblo all had snow today - some record late accumulating snowfalls were reported, so I wouldn't give up on the tornado outbreak yet, the lows this Spring have been extraordinary.

Definitely noticed the flurry of tornado warnings going up NW of Abilene (including for Hamlin) recently.  I am keeping my eye on that area for sure.

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35 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Just wanted to say: I think all of us can acknowledge this “busted” for a 45% tornado risk day. However, the potential was there, and I don’t think many could begrudge the SPC for issuing it given what everything looked like pre-initiation.

 

Days like today really make you appreciate just how unique the major outbreak days are! The subtlest thing being off can put the lid on what otherwise could have been a ridiculous outbreak of violent tornadoes. 

i just don’t understand why many have the urge to call everything a bust as soon as possible though. It’s not productive. If you want to critique, that’s fine. I’m here for all of your expertise and want to see actual technical discussion of that. However, you’re not contributing to a discussion of the event by calling “bust” every 15 minutes.

Every set-up, no matter how high-end, plays out differently, and it was absurd to be calling it one of the “worst busts ever” as we had four tornado warned discrete cells going on in the southern part of the risk area. We’ve seen several set-ups look like crap, then do something big later in the afternoon/evening. We may even end up with a 30% contour verifying after storm surveys somewhere in the Red River valley. It wasn’t what we expected, but it wasn’t a complete cap bust with no tornado reports either. 

I definitely don't begrudge SPC for issuing it.  I think there's room to begrudge SPC/NWS for forcememing it as the second coming of April 2011.

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Sheesh, areas of Tulsa are getting rainfall rates of upwards of 7.6 inches an hour right now.

Edit:  And the ground was saturated before this.  Lots of flooding going on in chunks of OK.

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1 minute ago, fourseasons said:

Large tornado confirmed near Peggs, OK.

Velocity is pretty strong as well... 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND NORTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

        

At 1036 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was

located near Peggs, moving northeast at 50 mph.

 

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

 

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

 

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

 

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 

         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 

         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 

         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 

         is possible.

 

Locations in or near the path include...

Peggs...                          Rose...

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Surface low is finally getting kicked in the ass by the UL energy over AZ/MN per GOES-16 WV imagery. UL energy is literally rolling the bowling ball. iIf it's too late still a question but could forebode points NE as it rounds the bottom FINALLY and works it's way into a still extremely unstable atmosphere.The differences I've noticed here compared to 4/27/11 is that  the "bowling ball"  was better defined and the UL energy had a better stroke on the LL "bowling ball" timing wise.  4/27/11 was a perfect roll or even a perfect Joe Frazier upper cut on WV imagery.

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Velocity is pretty strong as well... 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND NORTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

        

At 1036 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was

located near Peggs, moving northeast at 50 mph.

 

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

 

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

 

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

 

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 

         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 

         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 

         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 

         is possible.

 

Locations in or near the path include...

Peggs...                          Rose...

And if it keeps going it'll get across the state line.

Edit:  Looks like there's another one north of the first one.

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Possible debris ball on CC and reflectivity on KINX south of Snake Creek, OK.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1041 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Delaware County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Southeastern Mayes County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Northeastern Cherokee County in east central Oklahoma...

* Until 1130 PM CDT.

* At 1040 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located 5 miles south of Rose, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Jay...                            Colcord...
  Kansas...                         Oaks...
  Leach...                          Twin Oaks...
  Rose...                           Dodge...
  Lake Eucha State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

58dbz debris ball... yikes.

174mph GTG shear.

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Not trying to sound like a certain ok met here, but that debris ball is over a mile wide 

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1049 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKC021-041-210430-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190521T0430Z/
Delaware OK-Cherokee OK-
1049 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LEACH...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

At 1048 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Leach, moving northeast at 45 mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for Leach! This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Colcord...
Kansas...                         Oaks...
Leach...                          Twin Oaks...
Dodge...                          Lake Eucha State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

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