Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Quincy

Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

Recommended Posts

You can only hope people will take today seriously. Having an event like Monday happening not even 2 days ago really worries me that some are going to play this off like it's nothing still being complacent from Mon underperforming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Public perception isn't going to be very good in OK, but may be heightened to proper levels in Joplin.

Heading out there now from Wichita.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t know if I buy into the whole public perception thing when things “bust”. Your average lay person doesn’t geek out, following Mets on Twitter. They hear their own Mets on the morning news say “there could be severe weather tonight, stay weather aware” and leave it at that. 

Geneally speaking, most reasonable people hear a tornado siren and take cover.

This stuff gets blown out of proportion on these forums  and as long as local Mets don’t say stupid stuff like get in your car and drive south when there’s a tornado on the ground, we shouldn’t worry about it much in my opinion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

I don’t know if I buy into the whole public perception thing when things “bust”. Your average lay person doesn’t geek out, following Mets on Twitter. They hear their own Mets on the morning news say “there could be severe weather tonight, stay weather aware” and leave it at that. 

Geneally speaking, most reasonable people hear a tornado siren and take cover.

This stuff gets blown out of proportion on these forums  and as long as local Mets don’t say stupid stuff like get in your car and drive south when there’s a tornado on the ground, we shouldn’t worry about it much in my opinion

Most of the time I agree, but almost everyone was calling for a potentially historic. NWS, SPC, News outlets, Twitter mets... everyone... and it totally busted. That has impact on people, especially when in general, meteorologists aren't trusted to begin with.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Most of the time I agree, but almost everyone was calling for a potentially historic. NWS, SPC, News outlets, Twitter mets... everyone... and it totally busted. That has impact on people, especially when in general, meteorologists aren't trusted to begin with.

We're a bit insulated in the met community to our technicals.

The dismissal of public perception and reception happens too often. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Most of the time I agree, but almost everyone was calling for a potentially historic. NWS, SPC, News outlets, Twitter mets... everyone... and it totally busted. That has impact on people, especially when in general, meteorologists aren't trusted to begin with.

And I don’t disagree with you. I just happen to think it gets blown way out of proportion. When the rubber meets the road and the sirens Blair, most everyone I know gets to shelter.

It’s the crazy ones like me that hop in the truck and try to chase it down. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Such a delicate setup. The 18z OUN surprised me a bit with so much warming at 700mb. An increase from 5.2C at 12z to 9.0C at 18z. Notice warm layers between 800-650mb.

The model solutions with widespread/robust convection near and south of OKC metro seem overdone. This combined with the latest HRRR run implies any storm coverage will be very isolated, particularly near and southeast of a Oklahoma City to Joplin line, or roughly I-44. Any storm that does fire will likely become severe, rapidly, with a high probability of producing very large hail and tornadoes.

OUN18z.gif.1132d227912833db5477cb4d20244e50.gif

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tower going up W of SPS (Wichita Falls) via visible sat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Quincy said:

Such a delicate setup. The 18z OUN surprised me a bit with so much warming at 700mb. An increase from 5.2C at 12z to 9.0C at 18z. Notice warm layers between 800-650mb.

The model solutions with widespread/robust convection near and south of OKC metro seem overdone. This combined with the latest HRRR run implies any storm coverage will be very isolated, particularly near and southeast of a Oklahoma City to Joplin line, or roughly I-44. Any storm that does fire will likely become severe, rapidly, with a high probability of producing very large hail and tornadoes.

OUN18z.gif.1132d227912833db5477cb4d20244e50.gif

Agreed. Everyone is concerned that this setup won’t produce because of strong capping but I think that’s precisely why we should be concerned for what you mentioned. 

You’re in between a rock and hard place for public safety really. Stronger cap means much stronger, isolated storms. Weaker cap means flooding. Ideally the cap is so strong nothing happens, but then we wouldn’t have anything to get excited about in here either 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Quincy said:

Such a delicate setup. The 18z OUN surprised me a bit with so much warming at 700mb. An increase from 5.2C at 12z to 9.0C at 18z. Notice warm layers between 800-650mb.

The model solutions with widespread/robust convection near and south of OKC metro seem overdone. This combined with the latest HRRR run implies any storm coverage will be very isolated, particularly near and southeast of a Oklahoma City to Joplin line, or roughly I-44. Any storm that does fire will likely become severe, rapidly, with a high probability of producing very large hail and tornadoes.

OUN18z.gif.1132d227912833db5477cb4d20244e50.gif

Wow. Looks and sounds a little familiar. I think this is a good prognosis as of right now. That said, anything that can get going will definitely have the potential to do so in a big way (ala Mangum). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

6 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Such a delicate setup. The 18z OUN surprised me a bit with so much warming at 700mb. An increase from 5.2C at 12z to 9.0C at 18z. Notice warm layers between 800-650mb.

The model solutions with widespread/robust convection near and south of OKC metro seem overdone. This combined with the latest HRRR run implies any storm coverage will be very isolated, particularly near and southeast of a Oklahoma City to Joplin line, or roughly I-44. Any storm that does fire will likely become severe, rapidly, with a high probability of producing very large hail and tornadoes.

OUN18z.gif.1132d227912833db5477cb4d20244e50.gif

Is this a nuclear cap (aka a cap so strong that it takes upper 90s temps for towers to break)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With that said, convective initiation is underway just northwest of Wichita Falls, of all places. Mesoanalysis shows an area of locally steeper low-level lapse rates there. We'll have to see the convection evolves and if it can sustain itself.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

And I don’t disagree with you. I just happen to think it gets blown way out of proportion. When the rubber meets the road and the sirens Blair, most everyone I know gets to shelter.

It’s the crazy ones like me that hop in the truck and try to chase it down. 

 

Then you have cases like Joplin, where too many false alarms and eventual apathy lead to...we all know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Calderon said:

Then you have cases like Joplin, where too many false alarms and eventual apathy lead to...we all know.

Could just be because I live in their forecast area, but SGF seems especially bad at this. They issue a ton of tornado warnings, many of them don't seem necessary. Probably a lot easier to judge when I am the one not having to make the call though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Calderon said:

Then you have cases like Joplin, where too many false alarms and eventual apathy lead to...we all know.

I think the results of Joplin had more to do with an f5 going through a majorly populated area where home owners had subpar house construction and 82% of home owners were without basements and less to do with public perception but I’m going to shut up now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MUWX said:

Could just be because I live in their forecast area, but SGF seems especially bad at this. They issue a ton of tornado warnings, many of them don't seem necessary. Probably a lot easier to judge when I am the one not having to make the call though

Isn't this due to the "Plainfield Syndrome", where it's better to issue too many warnings and risk getting a few wrong, rather than underwarn and miss something critical?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, iowahawkeyedave said:

Isn't this due to the "Plainfield Syndrome", where it's better to issue too many warnings and risk getting a few wrong, rather than underwarn and miss something critical?

Well, we could compare NWO's.  Wichita is notorious for not issuing warnings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just saw NWS is expecting the cap to break.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, iowahawkeyedave said:

Isn't this due to the "Plainfield Syndrome", where it's better to issue too many warnings and risk getting a few wrong, rather than underwarn and miss something critical?

Definitely at least some truth to that, but over warning can certainly be detrimental. Glad I am not the one making the call most of the time. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If something happens in central OK, it'll find some way to just hit Moore. It's one of the safer bets you can make. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Returns are coming back from development West of Ardmore.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That CU field is so agitated now south of 40. Couple more light showers shown up to near Sulphur and Wynnewood now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lightning has dramatically picked up on the storm north of Wichita Falls the last few scans for sure. Looks like go time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Might need a tornado warning soon on that cell. Broad rotation, but it’s been picking up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×