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2019 Tropical Weather Discussion


Solak
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And so it begins.

National Hurricane CenterVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 11m11 minutes ago

 
 

A trough of low pressure over the NW Bahamas has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone once it moves over the western Atlantic later this week. Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days http://hurricanes.gov D5fDYASXoAMFPaM.png

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

We have Andrea


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202149
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of
Bermuda has developed a well-defined center with maximum sustained
winds of about 40 mph.  A special advisory will be issued on
Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi

 

 

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On ‎5‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 11:02 PM, downeastnc said:

The first name storm has happened in April or May in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 so we have a 4 year streak of a named storm before the official start date of the season to keep alive.

Make it a 5 year streak, that has to be a record number of consecutive years with a named system before June 1......

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Make it a 5 year streak, that has to be a record number of consecutive years with a named system before June 1......

I *think* I read where there was a similar streak from 1950 - 1954.

 

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  • 1 month later...

Here's something just a little bit different...

National Hurricane CenterVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 29m29 minutes ago

 

NHC is monitoring a system over the W Tennessee Valley that is forecast to move over the NE Gulf of Mexico in a few days, where a low pressure area could form. Some gradual development is then possible as it drifts west through midweek. Keep up to date at http://hurricanes.gov D-zwE8WUIAAdUi2.png

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The technology may still be somewhere in the future.  Yet: if there was ever a storm system that should be part of modern experiments towards figuring out how to prevent a PTC from stabilizing or to induce weakening at key stages that would thus cause it to dissipate as much as possible, this is it. 

Again it is possibly still too early in history, and whichever the coalition of scientists and group efforts would be, they would not want to risk having the opposite effect with their methods. 

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4 hours ago, calm_days said:

The technology may still be somewhere in the future.  Yet: if there was ever a storm system that should be part of modern experiments towards figuring out how to prevent a PTC from stabilizing or to induce weakening at key stages that would thus cause it to dissipate as much as possible, this is it. 

Again it is possibly still too early in history, and whichever the coalition of scientists and group efforts would be, they would not want to risk having the opposite effect with their methods. 

Whether we like it or not hurricanes serve an extremely significant role in our planets climate. We should not screw with the balance that hurricanes help create.

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Gauges are maxed out on the mississippi.  A foot or more of rain along with a 3' storm surge, and possible tropical storm force winds slowing down the river outflow (even for a few hours) = disaster again for the French Quarter and various low spots around the city.  Hope these people truly learned their lesson from Katrina and evac early.  No excuses this time around.

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Gauges are maxed out on the mississippi.  A foot or more of rain along with a 3' storm surge, and possible tropical storm force winds slowing down the river outflow (even for a few hours) = disaster again for the French Quarter and various low spots around the city.  Hope these people truly learned their lesson from Katrina and evac early.  No excuses this time around.

It is amazing how many days many areas have been at or above flood stage.  Over one-hundred days in many areas.

Is this the main Barry thread?

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7 minutes ago, BeauDodson said:

It is amazing how many days many areas have been at or above flood stage.  Over one-hundred days in many areas.

Is this the main Barry thread?

Hasnt been created in our forum yet.  May be one in the LA, TX and west forum.  Probably not much for us to track here other than a general discussion.  If Barry decides to shift towards the apps and spin for a while it will get much more interesting.

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  • 2 weeks later...

5 day outlook - 20% chance

two_atl_5d0.png

1. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms.  Some slight development is possible over the
next few days while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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4 hours ago, downeastnc said:

94L isnt looking horrible this afternoon, still with the big front ( for July anyways ) coming there is little threat of anything too major happening, if it somehow made it far enough north or even inshore over SC/MC it could bump rainfall totals quite a bit though.....

 

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ll tell you what, it’s looking pretty solid right now. Up to 60 percent odds now.

Now TD 3. but not forecasted to become a TS.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 222032
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Deep convection has increased in association with the small low
pressure area we have been monitoring near the Bahamas.  Animation
of visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate that a
closed low-level circulation formed today, and therefore advisories
are being initiated on the system.  Conventional surface
observations along with the scatterometer measurements indicate that
the maximum sustained winds in the cyclone are near 25 kt. The
system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening,
as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Weather Service
Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700
mb level.  The global models do not intensify the system, and only a
slight increase in strength appears likely.  In 36 to 48 hours, the
models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal
trough near the U.S. east coast.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/11 kt.  Over the
next day or so, the tropical cyclone should move around the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge, with the center of the
depression expected to remain offshore of the Florida east coast and
the southeastern United States until dissipation.  The official
track forecast follows a small consensus of the only models that
were able to follow the center of the depression in the predicted
fields.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 25.6N  78.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 27.2N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 30.1N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 33.7N  77.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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2 hours ago, Solak said:

EAlUoaEXkAAoBbT?format=jpg&name=large

Without limiting factors this could be Katrina in 8 days given the SSTs right now.  So the focus should be on what prevents development vs whether or not there will be development.  This is going to be an interesting next 90 days in the tropics.

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59 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Katrina? 

Lol.  Making the analogy only to point out that any system that develops in this region, and in the absence of limiting factors, has an undisturbed massive heat source available with these record SSTs.  A named storm could go thru an RI cycle across the gulfstream and go from TD to Cat 4 or 5 in just a couple of days. Not unprecedented when conditions are pristine.  

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